Handicapping

[Wingman]

After Aljay won the G3 NZ cup 2 years ago he went up 5 rating points from 78 to 83 yet despite running last in the 2023 Wellington cup he stayed unchanged at 83. Subsequently via excellent placing by his trainer he won three small open handicaps, two were 7 runner fields each with a stake of 35K, the other a 8 runner field  for 50K. For each of those 3 wins he was rerated at 4 points but given the low value and quality my reckoning they should have been 2 points, therefore 6 points over-rated. So onto Perfect Scenario who ran 5th in the L 3yo Karaka Millions and for whatever weird reason got bumped up 6 rating points. He then ran 2nd last in the Derby and received no reduction. For mine, at that point over-rated 7 points. Handicapping gets out of whack when unreasonable penalties are applied earlier in a horses career.

Perfect Scenario topped the TAB mile on Wednesday and only three other horses were above the minimum. Aljay headed the NZ Cup field today and there were only two other runners above the minimum, Their severe rating totally distorting the spread of weights. The Livamol run at Te Rapa last month had the two top rated horses, El Vencedor and One Bold Cat both on a rating of 103. Are we really to believe that Perfect Scenario on a rating of 107 is a better horse than those two or that Aljay on a rating of 102 is their equal?

[Wingman]

Correction, Aljay ran last in the 2023 Trentham Stakes

[Tragedy Beat]

Its all a bit of a joke. Look at the reason why Kopua was scratched today. Severe rerating and then you arent allowed an apprentice on to boot! 

The one remarkable thing is that Aljay won the NZ Cup in a time of 3.22 two years ago. Then runs 6th(?) in 3.25 last year with more weight, and 8th today (5.7L off them) in 3.27 carrying a massive 60kg in "testing ground". Basically the poor horse is still turning up with the same performance but getting in a situation where it cant win because of the handicapper. Why bother turning up? (unless you are there for the "also ran stakes"). 

No wonder Roger James took his stayer to Newcastle today.

[Huey]

Handicapping is an absolute shambles , countless examples of journeyman horses giving Group & Listed winners weights in Open Handicaps. The problem with it is there is skant regard for the quality of the field or the level of race the horse wins , just some arbitrary points allocation in the handicap. 

[curious]

7 hours ago, Tragedy Beat said:

Its all a bit of a joke. Look at the reason why Kopua was scratched today. Severe rerating and then you arent allowed an apprentice on to boot! 

The one remarkable thing is that Aljay won the NZ Cup in a time of 3.22 two years ago. Then runs 6th(?) in 3.25 last year with more weight, and 8th today (5.7L off them) in 3.27 carrying a massive 60kg in "testing ground". Basically the poor horse is still turning up with the same performance but getting in a situation where it cant win because of the handicapper. Why bother turning up? (unless you are there for the "also ran stakes"). 

No wonder Roger James took his stayer to Newcastle today.

  · 

David McCarthy  ·

If the remarkable Aljay pulls off the New Zealand Cup with 60kg at Riccarton this weekend he will be only the second horse to do so in the more than 100 years.

The first one was not even meant to be in the race.

Nightmarch,a beautiful dapple brown stallion bred in Canterbury and one of the best gallopers of his era, won the race easily with the same weight (9st 6lb),the maximum allowed in the race in 1930. He was only there for one reason.

Phar Lap.

Nightmarch had gone to Australia in 1929 and his owner ,astute Christchurch businessman, Alf Louisson, a new chum to Australian racing there fell under the spell of the legendary Melbourne punter, bookmaker and trainer, Eric Connolly.

Stories had it-with substance-that Connolly made a big offer for Nightmarch,Alf accepted but then, thinking of family and sporting consequences back home wanted out of the deal.Connolly agreed if he could plan the stallion’s spring campaign in Sydney.

Alf Louisson had bought Nightmarch as a promising two year old from a prominent southern racing family for $1600 and had multiplied the return.

The two major events,and still popular today,were the 1600 Epsom Handicap and the 2600m Metropolitan Handicap.Nightmarch being a stayer was well backed in the latter but the former was considered a leadup race in which he had a big weight

Connolly let everyone think that then plunged heavily on the Epsom which Nightmarch won,landing huge bets.He then finished a close second in the Metropolitan to a high class horse and carrying 62kg.

Then it was to Melbourne where Nightmarch was overshadowed for a time by another Canterbury-bred, the immortal Phar Lap then a three year old.But Phar Lap pulled his veteran jockey out of the saddle in the Cup and the more tractable Nightmarch became the first New Zealand bred, owned,trained, and ridden winner of the Melbourne Cup.

It had taken nearly 60 years. Both horses were by South Canterbury based stallion,Night Raid.

The winning rider,Roy Reed,tragically taken before his time in a racefall,was followed in later years as Cup- winning rider by brother Ashley.

In 1930 Nightmarch went back to Melbourne for the Cup but things had changed. Phar Lap was now all conquering,virtually unbeatable.

But while he was unbackable in the Melbourne Cup Phar Lap’s trainer (sometime Kiwi Harry Telford) would not say whether he would also run in the Caulfield Cup,the new target for Nightmarch.

A game of cat and mouse ensued,Louisson hanging on to run at Caulfield,Telford refusing to scratch.

Telford won the tense standoff. The last boat to New Zealand to get back in time to the New Zealand Cup was due to go and Alf Louisson cried enough. On to the boat went Nightmarch.The ship was scarcely out of the heads when Phar Lap was scratched from the Caulfield Cup.

Nightmarch won the New Zealand Cup in a cakewalk despite his huge weight.His trainer Alec McCaulay told the media afterward.

“You saw how easily my horse beat those today.Well Phar Lap beat him just as easily in Melbourne.That’s how good he is.”

In the 3600m AJC Plate that spring Phar Lap went to the front and on the way broke every Australian distance record from 1400 to 3600 one of the most phenomenal performances in the history of racing.Nightmarch was 10 lengths behind him.

Nightmarch was one of the very best of his era,just unfortunate to run into perhaps the greatest of all eras.

He stood Alf Louisson’s specially set up Ladbrooks Stud and was a successful stallion.

When Mr Louisson passed and the stud was sold Nightmarch was buried on the property.The grave locality can still be seen.

A noble horse.Nothing has come close in NZ Cup weight carrying performances since. Aljay will have to be really good to match it,

PIC: Nightmarch from a painting for Notable New Zealand Thoroughbreds of which he was a certain selection

[Murray Fish]

The Stewards’ Stakes was Mystic Park’s first shot at black-type level, and he had to carry a 59kg topweight against a 16-horse field that was mostly on 53kg.

[Thomass]

The handicapper got it right then didn't he?

[curious]

18 minutes ago, Thomass said:

The handicapper got it right then didn't he?

You could say he should have given him more to equalise the others' chances?

[Thomass]

Why don't they AI the 'handicapping'

Would we hear trainers of 'up and comers' complaining they were giving away weight to G1 performers even though their pure performance figure was superior?

After all that's what handicapping should be doing isn't it

Equalising outcomes with wieght not past perfromance?

[Murray Fish]

22 hours ago, Thomass said:

The handicapper got it right then didn't he?

perhaps for that race???  but very much doubt so for the horses career going forward! 

I wonder how he would be handicapped if he is taken over to Au?

[Thomass]

On 16/11/2024 at 6:52 PM, Wingman said:

After Aljay won the G3 NZ cup 2 years ago he went up 5 rating points from 78 to 83 yet despite running last in the 2023 Wellington cup he stayed unchanged at 83. Subsequently via excellent placing by his trainer he won three small open handicaps, two were 7 runner fields each with a stake of 35K, the other a 8 runner field  for 50K. For each of those 3 wins he was rerated at 4 points but given the low value and quality my reckoning they should have been 2 points, therefore 6 points over-rated. So onto Perfect Scenario who ran 5th in the L 3yo Karaka Millions and for whatever weird reason got bumped up 6 rating points. He then ran 2nd last in the Derby and received no reduction. For mine, at that point over-rated 7 points. Handicapping gets out of whack when unreasonable penalties are applied earlier in a horses career.

Perfect Scenario topped the TAB mile on Wednesday and only three other horses were above the minimum. Aljay headed the NZ Cup field today and there were only two other runners above the minimum, Their severe rating totally distorting the spread of weights. The Livamol run at Te Rapa last month had the two top rated horses, El Vencedor and One Bold Cat both on a rating of 103. Are we really to believe that Perfect Scenario on a rating of 107 is a better horse than those two or that Aljay on a rating of 102 is their equal?

if you have questions best to contact 

Bruce.Sherwin@nztr.co.nz

or ring him

Very open and honest wantint to do the best for horses and the industry

Also writes a handicapping Blog on NZTR's website which can also help explain matters

[curious]

3 minutes ago, Thomass said:

if you have questions best to contact 

Bruce.Sherwin@nztr.co.nz

or ring him

Very open and honest wantint to do the best for horses and the industry

Also writes a handicapping Blog on NZTR's website which can also help explain matters

Agree. He's a star. Breath of fresh air.

[Thomass]

andicapper’s Blog 18/11

The New Zealand Cup carnival provides the perfect finale to New Zealand’s spring racing. The 3-day, Group 1 carnival is unique, and fits ideally on the back of Melbourne Cup week.

It is a busy racing week, with 9 meetings programmed across the country, and invariably presents numerous re-ratings of interest. We touch on Open race winners below.

Feature Open race winner ratings:

Bella Waters	Gartshore Tauranga Stakes, Group 2, $150k	98
Mehzebeen	Martin Collins NZ Cup, Group 3, $400k	97
Kopua	TAB Mile, Group 3, $250k	96
Mystic Park	Lindauer Stewards, Listed, $140k	95

Bella Waters entered the Tauranga Stakes as a rating 84 horse and risked a large re-rating for a top 4 finish - given she was competing at WFA against a 105-rated horse, Ladie’s Man, and other high-rating horses at the level weights.

In winning she beat two rating 98 horses, Pearl Of Alsace and Mali Ston, in a tight finish. Given the narrow margins, and the relative weights, a re-rating to 98 (+14) was appropriate. Any less of a re-rating would have her receiving weight at their next meeting under handicap conditions, which is not equitable.

The risk and benefits of running a progressive horse in a race under these conditions is a balancing act. No doubt Cambridge Stud factored these, and the calculated risk has paid dividends with Bella Waters now a Group-2 winning mare.

In terms of feedback, Kopua was the most contentious re-rating of the week with his 9-point re-rating for the TAB Mile win.

The entry of Perfect Scenario (rating 107) pushed the majority of field to 53kgs and out of the handicap. Kopua was 6 points out of the handicap (ie. In a precise handicap he would have carried 50kgs).

To give Kopua a re-rating 6 points or less for the win would see the entire field facing him again at exactly the same weights set-up.

Kopua was given 3 points for the win, and 6 points for the out of handicaps adjustment.

In simple terms, had the race been run again Kopua would carry 54.5kgs.

Mehzebeen and Mystic Park were standard feature race re-ratings of 5 points, given no issues with out of handicap.

Previously, Mehzebeen had attracted an 8-point re-rating on Day 1 for an out of the handicap win in the Metropolitan Trophy (Listed). In that race also, Beavertown Boy was re-rated 7 points for his 2^nd placing, moving him 1kg below the winner at that point in time.