Jump to content
NOTICE TO BOAY'ers: Major Update Coming ×
Bit Of A Yarn

Value


VC!

Recommended Posts

I will use this thread to have a crack at value

I will have an imaginary 50 units and will bet level stakes 1 unit per bet regardless of price  even money 30-1 1 unit will be the bet my ideal price would be overs in the 8-15 range I will do this until the end of February or once my 50 units vanish (more likely)

NZ Sydney Melbourne are the locations I study I also do the trials as they are broadcast live over here I actually record trials encore as they are put into a 30 minute package 

I have reassessed my line of thought for selections 

1) Ability 

2) Track Conditions 

3) Course/Distance

4) Speed Map/ Track 

That’s it

Saturday will be my main day with the odd selection Wednesday Thursday Friday 

Iv’e put it up here as there is nowhere to hide I won’t be bullshiting myself more likely embarrass myself but at least I will put the effort in to try and avoid that lol ? 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for the feedback One needs to make mistakes to learn

I don’t plan to take 30-1 shots I plan to now and again back something at 30-1 that I have rated much lower if your unit stake was 1k it would be so so hard to get set for a 30k return you would need all books open and taking a little bit everywhere 

I wish I could do Hong Kong form betting into a 4 million win pool would be a dream

I tried it but found it too tough a lot of these big punters work in teams they have analysts doing form for them in NZ Australia Europe 

I need to see the fields and do the ratings without the bookmakers prices next to them so I won’t be influenced in anyway I intend to be selective and have way fewer bets

Hopefully I learn along the way

 

Edited by VC!
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep, you can work out scenarios based on medium level losing runs. It does come down to the spread of chance, but I'd think 0.5% would be more sustainable. Or if you're going to go high, change from level stakes to a % of bank basis.

In a series backing 15% chances, each run has close to a 4% chance of giving you 20 losses in a row. Do that twice and you're basically broke. Backing 4-5% chances will make that more likely and be more impacting.  % of bank definitely absorbs some of that issue.

  • Champ Post 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, mardigras said:

 Or if you're going to go high, change from level stakes to a % of bank basis.

 

Variable staking to win a fixed amount (or percent of bank) per bet would also be a way to mitigate the risk.

I personally don't like long losing streaks and mostly bet in short stints of 3-6  weeks (60-100 events), so generally set the minimum chance that I will bet on to between 6.7% and 10% and stay with set staking.

Edited by curious
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have increased our bank to  100 Units

I will stick with I unit investments so we will have a 10,000 bank betting $100 1 unit

Our first bet will be on Champagne Boom to win the Magic Millions at $22 with SB January 12th this is a boosted price with power play you would get on with a $100 but these power plays boost odds etc are generally designed for recreational punters

Champagne Boom is in at Wyong Wednesday probably not suited at Wyong but a stepping stone towards the Gold Coast first time around a bend going from left handed to right handed the fact he is running at Wyong is a good lead he will be heading to the GC will he start at $22 MM day No the risk we are taking he might not start at all

Balance 99 units

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 Bet at Wyong Race1 Witherspoon rated her even money 

We will back her at Ned’s @ $2-50 1 unit

Neds have a tool box we will use the option Back Up and nominate Enjoy Elsie as our back up should Witherspoon run 2nd to Enjoy Elsie we get our 1 unit stake back

Balance 98 Units

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Speaking of Witherspoon I heard a joke a few years ago it goes like this

You..........Did you hear about that actress who got stabbed the other day Reece...Reece....Reece....Reece

Them.....Witherspoon?????

You.........NO!!!! Not with a SPOON with a KNIFE you idiot!!!!

 

 

Anywho the whole value has been an awful lot for my cognitive side to take in the more information I tried to digest the more confused I became

So over the past few days I have broke it down bit by bit A new structure and the processes are in place

I have had to reprogram the way I think the biases that have been my way of punting assessing races have been put to one side I am aware of them but for myself to find true value I need to look at things differently 

A jockey is to steer the horse the trainer is to train the horse when assessing a horse has the trainer changed NO so why rate it higher the jockey more than likely rode it last start is he going to ride it better no

Do we need to rate a horse lower because of it’s barrier NO we are likely to find value because of the barrier this would have the reverse affect if we were wanting to Lay the horse we would rather that horse have a good barrier as it would be shorter in the market and we have already rated it’s chances regardless of barrier

Do we have the latest stats on presumed front runners tracks eg the last 100 races run at the track I seen a very good 2yr old come from near last at the 300 at the Valley the other day are we valuing front runners incorrectly at these tracks not knowing the stats

Are we driven my media gossip when assessing a price and so on and so on

So I am a work in progress

My imaginary bank stands at 9,800 and I have taken on board the advice given so I will be betting to win 5% of my bank 

Deep breathe wax on wax off inhale exhale 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • hesi pinned and featured this topic

*=my rating

TeRapa 

R6 Lizzie L’amour *2-10/2-50 Ned’s $196W Back up Love Affair 

R7 Maygrove *11/23-00 NSWTab $22W

R8 Southern Icon *16/27-00 $19W

 

Awapuni

R2 Soroc *3-90/5-00 $98W

R5 Real Beach *6-00/$7-50 $66W NSW Tab

 

Doomben

R2 Tumultuous *7-80/9-50 $52W SBet

R6 Havasay *8-90/11-00 $45W

R8 Chess Style*3-20/4-50 power play $109W ....Granny Red Shoes *11-80/15-00 $33W

Kembla these aren’t accurate ratings as I do the trials I have boosted both in the first

R1 Vulpes *5-50/11-00 odds boos Lad $45W

R1 Howra *4-60/9-36 price boost Ned’s $53W

 

Flemington

R3 Etymology *4-00/5-00 $98W

R6 Five Kingdom *5-50/7-50 Bet Boost BE $66W

Randwick

R8 Roman Son *6-00/8-50 58W

R8 The Getaway *31-00/61-00 $8W

R9 Kool Vinnie *8-00/12-00 NSW T $41W

Most of these bets would more than likely be placed on BF with 2/3 minutes before jump then what you couldn’t get set with you use one of the books if eventually one of your books is closed you have friends yes!!!!

The last 3 weeks track conditions have done my head in

Opening Balance 9,800

Closing Balance $8,791

Edited by VC!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just the one collect Real Beach brings balance to $9,286

Busy few days coming up before I get into Saturday’s selections I’m going to guess your age yes you who is reading this follow these prompts and. I will guess your age

1)Choose a number between underline between 1 and 10

2) Multiply the number by 2

3) Now add 5

4) Now multiply that number by 50

5) Now if you have had your birthday this year add 1768 to your total if you haven’t already had your birthday add 1767

6) Now subtract the year you were born from the total

7) You should Now be left with a 3 figure total the first number in the total is the original number you picked between 1 and 10 the last 2 numbers is how old you are

OMG!!! Are you really that old yes you you are really really ancient sssh!!! I’ll keep it quiet 

Anyway onto Saturday’s selections 

Warwick Farm

Race 3 Difficult to get *6/9-50 $49W

Race 4 Navel Warfare *4-80/6-00 $78W

Race 4 Top Prospect *4/4-80 $97W (also nominated Melbourne)

Race 5 Astoria *5-10/6-00 $78W

Race 7 Invinzabeel 6/7-50 $62W

Race7 Sir Plush *5-80/7-50 $62W

Race8 Navigator *8/17-00 $28W

 

Flemington

Race 6 Saint Valorem *10/13-00 $36W

Race 7 All to Huiying *12/23 $21W

Race7 Battlecamp *14/20 $24W

Race 8 Top of the Range *8/11 $43W

Race 9 Priarie Fire *12/23 $21W

 

Eagle Farm

Race 5 Awesome Pluck *1-80/2-35 $198W

 

Morphetville

Race 7 Takedown *5-80/9-50 $49W

Race 8 All Carisma *6/7-50 $62W

Total spent $908 Balance $8,378

 

 
Matched$70,095,211
 
Yrs 70 plus million matched on the first big bash match of the season
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a few more for tomorrow now I have the prices

OB $8,378

Te Rapa

R1 Polzeath *12/18 $26W

R3 Mitigator *2-60/3-58 Ned’s PB $130W

Awapuni

R1 Bocce *2-80/4-28 Ned’s PB $109W

R8 Toms *8-60/11-00 $43W

 

Newcastle

R7 Verlan *3-20/4-26 Ned’s PB $110W

That equates to a further $418 spent

Closing Balance $7960

Todays Joke 

Which city in the world do chicks go to too get laid

 

 

They go to Bangkok

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’ll stick with it always learning

Going to also trial not on here Another 10k imaginary bank Laying to a liability of 5% of bank

Might struggle getting set as not enough liquidity with NZ should be able to possibly get set in Aus on a Saturday for small profits

Houtzen last week I had rated $1-40 which was in line with TAB I really thought it would win but still placed a bet on something else that I had rated less than the TAB which was a mistake 

Keep repeating to myself we are rating these horses on their ability 

The thing I Iike betting to win 5% of your bank you don’t need too many winners to make a serious profit 

Still learning hopefully with a bit of luck will start turning these close losses into some profit

Cheers

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, VC! said:

Houtzen last week I had rated $1-40 which was in line with TAB I really thought it would win but still placed a bet on something else that I had rated less than the TAB which was a mistake.

NO, not a mistake! That's exactly what you should do. Not back the horses you think are most likely to win (if no value), but the ones that represent value relative to the chance of winning you rate them to have. Stick with that.

Edited by curious
  • Like 1
  • Champ Post 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, curious said:

NO, not a mistake! That's exactly what you should do. Not back the horses you think are most likely to win (if no value), but the ones that represent value relative to the chance of winning you rate them to have. Stick with that.

Curious is right except for 1 point missing,  if you think there is an absolute certainty in the race but it’s no value, then avoid the race. Picking something to beat a certainty is serverly denting your chances of winning.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hmmm..fair point barryb. However, I think that's covered isn't it? If I rate something as a dead set cert, it's a 100% chance and all other runners are necessarily 0% chances. I might or might not find sufficient value in the 100% chance to have a bet, but I also will never find value in any of the 0% ones?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, curious said:

Hmmm..fair point barryb. However, I think that's covered isn't it? If I rate something as a dead set cert, it's a 100% chance and all other runners are necessarily 0% chances. I might or might not find sufficient value in the 100% chance to have a bet, but I also will never find value in any of the 0% ones?

I personally try and avoid races with a runner below $2.00 & almost never back anything below $2.50. 

I know plenty of punters only bet in this range, but my mental make up means I struggle with short priced losers.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, curious said:

Hmmm..fair point barryb. However, I think that's covered isn't it? If I rate something as a dead set cert, it's a 100% chance and all other runners are necessarily 0% chances. I might or might not find sufficient value in the 100% chance to have a bet, but I also will never find value in any of the 0% ones?

Hilarious stuff ....yet again

When I suggested WINX was a home run last year...You tipped summit else

So it'll be interesting which neddy's a 100 per cent stone colder

If WINX wasn't 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • hesi unfeatured and unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...