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Bit Of A Yarn

What is the idiot Winston doing now?


Reefton

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10 hours ago, Thomass said:

My BP suggests very different...

For example I know Premier form beats mid weak almost every time..

Because your BP is a load of bollocks. And you 'know' sfa.

R65 races in NZ this year. R65 races and what stake the horses ran for in their prior run (of R65 or Maiden race). Of course you'll claim that not all of them are better. And it doesn't apply to all - cos as we know, it only applies after they have won.

What is logical - given how many think like you, the value opportunity is much less likely when following that BP model, as people are stupid enough to think like you, so the horses will generally be paying less than they should be.

this R65

last run (R65/mdn)

winners

losers

strike rate

win div

av div

roi

9-12k stake

9-12k stake

116

1090

10.64%

$966.40

$8.33

80.13%

 

22-30k stake

44

433

10.16%

$319.80

$7.27

67.04%

 

all

160

1523

10.51%

$1,286.20

$8.04

76.42%

 

 

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On 16/12/2018 at 3:53 PM, mardigras said:

Most horses race in the areas where they are trained and/or owned. There is nothing I have seen that suggests a Northern horse is superior to an Invercargill one (of like rating).  It's just as likely a perception thing. Some horses go from the north down south and win. Many don't. Those that do may have equally won if they stayed up north.

The rating system is the same - and given horses that race down south having achieved their rating often against south island horses, it's more logical to assume that the competition is somewhat level otherwise they couldn't compete when they then went north to race. Yet they do. Under what you suggest, an r90 horse from the south is inferior to an r90 horse in the north. I can't see it being the case.

So you were asked to provide stats statsman...but you can't...

Again....and you're too thick to understand...

Its counterintuitive knowing the Northern area has all of the best breeding/ trainers/ investment....

...that they wouldn't be superior...and my stats prove it...

Youll get some wealthy Mainlanders able to buy into the best Bloodstock...but that's not the norm

Just accept the obvious...

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18 hours ago, Thomass said:

Maidens should be running for 8K down there and North at 12k...

 

8 hours ago, Thomass said:

So you were asked to provide stats statsman...but you can't...

Again....and you're too thick to understand...

Its counterintuitive knowing the Northern area has all of the best breeding/ trainers/ investment....

Who said I can't provide the stats. Of course I can. 

Your form of intuitive is simply wrong. You relate things that have no relationship. Now you're relating investment into the performance of maidens as per the top post of yours I quoted suggesting that they are superior.

You don't deal in facts. Where are these stats of yours about time variance. You don't have any - you just write fairytales. You don't even use times - you've explicitly stated that.

Now you're trying to claim you know the difference between horses in different parts of the country. I just love all your generalisations - the pathway to failure. Any moron that thinks form can be done in such a generalised fashion, should just gift their money to NZ Racing as that is where it's going to go anyway. Just like yours does.

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5 hours ago, mardigras said:

 

Who said I can't provide the stats. Of course I can. 

Your form of intuitive is simply wrong. You relate things that have no relationship. Now you're relating investment into the performance of maidens as per the top post of yours I quoted suggesting that they are superior.

You don't deal in facts. Where are these stats of yours about time variance. You don't have any - you just write fairytales. You don't even use times - you've explicitly stated that.

Now you're trying to claim you know the difference between horses in different parts of the country. I just love all your generalisations - the pathway to failure. Any moron that thinks form can be done in such a generalised fashion, should just gift their money to NZ Racing as that is where it's going to go anyway. Just like yours does.

I know for sure an R 65 performer at HQ in 'form' is superior to an R 65 racing at Whak a White...

...even the dullest dullard from dickheadsville knows that...

You however, can't differentiate form from neddys being unlucky, without cover or slow...so I would expect you haven't a f in clue about this...

....and then the psychology of a horse changing environments comes into it....

...with many Northerners performing better in their first few races there....

....but being a 'statsman'...you'd ignore that

next

 

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On 17/12/2018 at 11:27 AM, Thomass said:

I make the CD 0.2secs quicker...and the North 0.3 secs faster...as standard

I just love your generalisations. What purpose they could possibly serve is beyond me - when you can simply assess the horse against the competition to know whether it has an edge.

But was I surprised to find out that there is a difference. My goodness I was. "Generally"

I couldn't believe it, but there you go. Of course it could simply be an aberration since the difference is next to zero.

The performance difference of horses from the North running down South against track benchmarks - provide a 0.01 second (up to 0.02 seconds on some tracks) advantage 'generally' to an Auckland horse over a SI one. No difference between an Auckland one and a CD one. 

Useless info for me, since I don't use generalisations - but certainly something for blue print followers to consider. Working out which ones may get the general 0.01 second or not - well I'll leave that to you to work out. Fill ya boots. Thomass will let us know the ones after they've won.

Of course, that info comes with a caveat - that only covers the last 8 years. 

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Useless information from a punting perspective as you say mardigras but surprise, surprise, the difference is almost exactly the same as when I looked at it using what is now 6-10 year old data except that I decided that .02 seconds was not significant and rounded it to a big fat ZERO. Any way it's about 1/100th of what Thommo dreamed up. It does however support the argument that there should be no tiered stakes differentials except by rating band/ class of race.

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On 17/12/2018 at 9:18 PM, mardigras said:

Because your BP is a load of bollocks. And you 'know' sfa.

R65 races in NZ this year. R65 races and what stake the horses ran for in their prior run (of R65 or Maiden race). Of course you'll claim that not all of them are better. And it doesn't apply to all - cos as we know, it only applies after they have won.

What is logical - given how many think like you, the value opportunity is much less likely when following that BP model, as people are stupid enough to think like you, so the horses will generally be paying less than they should be.

 

this R65

last run (R65/mdn)

winners

losers

strike rate

win div

av div

roi

9-12k stake

9-12k stake

116

1090

10.64%

$966.40

$8.33

80.13%

 

22-30k stake

44

433

10.16%

$319.80

$7.27

67.04%

 

all

160

1523

10.51%

$1,286.20

$8.04

76.42%

 

 

lol...........

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Congrats on hijacking another thread..

but im sure that shrew Hesi will step in and tell you to F off 

The problem with these ridiculous 'stats' from the Statsman is that one only needs to ask trainers like Pitty how they love ex Northerners....

Like it's people...

The North has far better breeding and therefor superior quality gallopers 

Its not only strongly anecdotal evidence but moi's stats confirm it

...and I'd take those anyway over a ignorant statsmans 'stats'

...afterall he said the Brit Handicappers were expecting a 0.02L improvement 

F in hilarious stuff like that

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2 hours ago, Thomass said:

What a cracking I Am Invincible foal from the great mare

Just a Pitty it'll be hopeless on the track...

 

On 17/12/2018 at 9:51 PM, Thomass said:

Its counterintuitive knowing the Northern area has all of the best breeding/ trainers/ investment....

...that they wouldn't be superior...and my stats prove it...

Sure.

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3 hours ago, mardigras said:

I think we've all seen enough of 'your' stats to know they're fairytales. Blinkers on, down in grade etc etc.

You live in a world of make believe. Not a fact to be seen.

oooo blinkers and down in grade. Sounds interesting - what have I missed?

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