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Bit Of A Yarn

Potential Pure Punting Comp??


hesi

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34 minutes ago, Mk2_Zephyr said:

3 entrants all mouths, they can do they own scoring.  ;) 

It won't keep any of the three from bleating for 2 months, but at least they all be in their own little sandpit.

Tomo can be referee .. :) 

 

I have but two questions for these fantastic value pickers,

1:  Do you still have a mortgage ? 

2:  What type of car do you drive ?

Answer me those two questions honestly and I will decide how valuable your tips are !  ;)  

Not sure if that was aimed at me but the answers are:

1. Yeahh, several. It's called leverage. Similar principle to value.

2. Depends what day it is and where I'm going but usually prefer my 1997 Camry.

Oh, and I don't think I have ever or ever will give out tips if you mean tipping winners. Not my thing.

Edited by curious
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40 minutes ago, Mk2_Zephyr said:

seriously fudged mortgage and a bomb nissan, I expect .  :) 

But my point was, you three or four will never be able to sort out a comp.  ;) 

 You wouldn't like the answers.

But rest assured, I currently have no mortgage and the last house I bought about 1 month ago, I just paid cash for.

Hope your job is going well. Keep on doing that.

Your point is that you simply a bleater.

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Paid cash for the last one I bought too. Never mind. That's not really the point of the comp. If you think you have the skills to compete, get on board. If not, try to at least understand the difference between a value bet and the horse I think most likely to win the race (a tip). Completely different things. When you get that in your head, come back to us.

Edited by curious
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2 minutes ago, curious said:

Only if I get $200 for passing go and don't end up in jail.

I shouldnt have put that shot up, sadly one of my kids got kiwi version of  monopoly for xmas from a relative that obviously does not like me,  god it went on for hours. I have hid it, 

Edited by Newmarket
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12 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

I shouldnt have put that shot up, sadly one of my kids got kiwi version of  monopoly for xmas from a relative that obviously does not like me,  god it went on for hours. I have hid it, 

Brings back memories. We played as a family when it was the thing to do so very many years ago. Dad would get pissed off if we did not allow him to buy the property he wanted. He would have Mayfair and I would have Park Lane. Great tactics by me but he would end up sweeping the board and contents off the table and go off in a shitty mood. Those were the days ?

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1 hour ago, curious said:

Paid cash for the last one I bought too. Never mind. That's not really the point of the comp. If you think you have the skills to compete, get on board. If not, try to at least understand the difference between a value bet and the horse I think most likely to win the race (a tip). Completely different things. When you get that in your head, come back to us.

Definitely have the skills, as my comp record and life record would indicate.

What I meant was, with all the crazy suggestions, you 3-4 will never all agree to a set of rules ...

But time will tell  ..... :) 

and in regards to value, how do you make money if its only value and not a winner ?

Edited by Mk2_Zephyr
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4 minutes ago, Mk2_Zephyr said:

and in regards to value, how do you make money if its only value and not a winner ?
 

Ok. You obviously still don't get the difference Mk2. Clearly, to make money you must have winners. But my rated best chances (which some would consider tips) will win more often than my value bets, however if I back those best chances regardless of price, I will likely lose money. The idea is to back horses that have a better chance of winning than the market says they will. Then, those that win will more than make up for those that lose. Check out a couple of other threads on here like Punting 1.01 to try and grasp the idea. I may not be getting through but happy to help if you have more questions.

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Will let this thread run till the end of January, then try(with the emphasis on try), and put together a workable format.  If something can't be put together, as our friend seems to think, then we simply won't run it

Happy for you to score/tabulate etc etc it Mardigras, thanks, but I would still manage and coordinate.

The biggest thing in these comps is handling people, someone makes a smart arse comment, others take umbrage, and before you know it, things fall apart

 

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2 minutes ago, curious said:

Ok. You obviously still don't get the difference Mk2. Clearly, to make money you must have winners. But my rated best chances (which some would consider tips) will win more often than my value bets, however if I back those best chances regardless of price, I will likely lose money. The idea is to back horses that have a better chance of winning than the market says they will. Then, those that win will more than make up for those that lose. Check out a couple of other threads on here like Punting 1.01 to try and grasp the idea. I may not be getting through but happy to help if you have more questions.

Could I put my layman's interpretation on value, I'm sure you'll tell me if it is wrong.

If you assume for every 100 horses you select, at best only a certain % will win, let's say 10 as an example.  The better the value you get for those 10 winners, the more your return will be

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I think regular comp members should keep an open mind on this and give it a go when it starts. 

It seems complicated but we know that many on here have had a canny ability to pick a huge amount of winners. Just because Curious gets overs on his 100 horses, means nothing if none win,  where as someone may be able to pick 10 winners at nz tab odds and win, who knows. In fact, it will be good to have a mixture in comp. 

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3 hours ago, Mk2_Zephyr said:

 

and in regards to value, how do you make money if its only value and not a winner ?

Value is outdated 

There are that many people using this they say it’s not about strike rate it’s about value 

Well that used to be the case but not anymore it’s become harder and harder to find value that in my mind it doesn’t exist anymore 

Value will not be winning this comp

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1 hour ago, Jasper said:

Value is outdated 

There are that many people using this they say it’s not about strike rate it’s about value 

Well that used to be the case but not anymore it’s become harder and harder to find value that in my mind it doesn’t exist anymore 

Value will not be winning this comp

Quote of the year. "Value is outdated".

I expect that sort of comment from a punter. I'm yet to meet a long term winning punter that doesn't bet to value.

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12 hours ago, hesi said:

Could I put my layman's interpretation on value, I'm sure you'll tell me if it is wrong.

If you assume for every 100 horses you select, at best only a certain % will win, let's say 10 as an example.  The better the value you get for those 10 winners, the more your return will be

Yes, but the whole value thing is less complex than it's made out to be.

In you example, if you thought they should be all paying $10 and they are paying $20, that's value.

If Jasper backs 10,000 horses he/she thinks should be paying $4 but are paying $3.00, then to profit, either is using some miraculous staking plan or they have shown themselves to be a poor judge of chance/value.

Since 1/3 of them are likely needing to have won to make any profit, yet in that example, they thought only 25% should have won.

It's as simple as that. 

If you don't know whether a horse is at value and you back it at whatever it's paying, then to profit long term, sufficient of them will have to have been at value otherwise you will have lost overall. 

And if you did profit, you would make a higher profit, by not backing those runners that weren't at value. 

It is very simple maths. Probably around that done as a 11-12 year old at school.

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