how does this sort of thing play out in nz?

[Murray Fish]

‘The trajectory is concerning’ - Australia’s biggest fixed odds punter exploring international opportunities

By Tim Rowe - June 12, 2025

In a worrying sign for Australia’s racing authorities, one of the country’s highest turnover punters is switching more of his focus - and his investment - to overseas markets.

Australia's biggest fixed odds punter is shunning domestic racing in favour of overseas jurisdictions. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Australia’s biggest fixed odds punter is becoming increasingly concerned about the future of the country’s racing industry, prompting him to direct more of his resources into international betting markets.

In what should ring alarm bells for principal racing authorities (PRAs) across thoroughbred, harness and greyhound racing, the professional gambler made the startling admission to The Straight, painting a bleak picture for what could be ahead for the country’s three codes.

The punter, who has bet on racing professionally for two decades, has deliberately maintained a low public profile throughout his gambling career but he is widely respected by bookmakers, with his wagers regularly triggering significant market moves. 

He spoke freely but did not want to publicly disclose his identity. The Straight agreed to retain his anonymity in order to canvass a broad range of issues.  

In a wide-ranging interview, in which he revealed that he was focusing more of his time on overseas racing jurisdictions, the punter also said that:

• He believes that releasing early fixed odds markets is to the benefit of the racing industry.
• He favours tiered minimum bet limits, which take into account the market and the size of the bookmaker, as well as merged totaliser pools, and,
• Professional gamblers are foundational to the health and credibility of wagering markets.

The respected racing gambler, who has derived his income primarily from betting on the three codes of racing since the 2000s, says the current landscape of Australia’s wagering industry and the outlook for its future poses issues for all participants including himself.

“Regarding the Australian racing industry, primarily due to the current tax regime, if we model the past five years and project forward another five to 10, the trajectory is concerning,” he said. 

“To borrow Betfair terminology, I’d far rather be operating in the pink column than the blue - laying rather than backing.

“Consequently, I’ve invested significantly in developing predictive models to enable wagering on various international jurisdictions such as Hong Kong.”

Several of Australia’s biggest racing punters have turned their investment to Hong Kong over the years, with the promise of rebates and better liquidity.

In recent years, larger professional players, such as Dr Nick and the groups led by Zeljko Ranogajec, have left the Australian market. 

The professional punter spoken to by The Straight for this article is now believed to be the nation’s highest turnover punter on fixed odds markets, while he also bets through the totaliser and Betfair. 

Corporate bookmaking sources indicated to The Straight that the punter consistently wins at 12 per cent profit on turnover via fixed odds markets.

While he has proven his ability to beat the market, despite decreasing odds, he said “many marginal, sharp, or semi-sharp players have been forced out of the game due to rising market percentages, driven largely by increased taxation”, leading to “a less efficient, less liquid market for everyone”. 

He argues that the increased rate of taxation placed on wagering by PRAs and governments, such as the Point of Consumption Tax (POCT), had proven to be detrimental to all punters who bet on racing.

‘It’s a faceless game’ - Punters urge changes to reinvigorate racing

“Market percentage is a direct function of turnover elasticity across all segments of punters,” he said. 

“While recreational bettors may not consciously notice the impact of slightly worse odds, their experience subtly changes. 

“Over time, their bankrolls deplete faster, reducing overall engagement, even if they can't articulate the precise cause.”

A concerted overhaul of the taxation of gambling on would stop the significant decline of wagering turnover in the past few years, he said.

The professional punter predicts that racing’s funding model “will continue to be put under pressure, that prize money will stagnate at best” and that it “won’t get any easier from any stakeholder’s perspective”. 

“Given the tax regime, it’s not an easy fix. Supply-side inefficiencies (operators and liquidity) and demand-side friction (punters' experience and incentives) both need to be addressed,” he said.

“I don’t have a silver bullet, although a rebalancing of the tax regime is required. We have breached the revenue-maximising threshold, which has/will ironically result in less revenue for the industry and government (to) the point at which all are worse off.”

Asked about the recent decision by Tabcorp (and Bet365) to stop posting early fixed odds prices 24 and 48 hours before some thoroughbred meetings, which led to a stalemate amongst other corporate bookmakers without a “market leader”, the professional gambler said he was “agnostic” to the changing dynamic.

“However, posting markets later has significant downside for industry stakeholders,” he said. 

The Hong Kong Jockey Club offers a structured rebate scheme for punters. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

“The shift impacts engagement from owners, trainers, media presenters, jockeys, tipsters, punters, and others. Undoubtedly, the cost will be greater than the consensus believes it to be.”

He also argues that professional punters, who ultimately shape the official starting prices, helped the overall integrity of racing, indicating that “our fixed odds markets aren’t efficient enough until very late in betting”.

“Efficient markets reduce risk for bookmakers, allowing them to price more competitively and confidently, such as market percentages on metropolitan meetings set lower than a corresponding field size on country or provincial racing,” he said.

“With sharper markets, there's less need for excessive margins or early overreactions, which benefits punters and sustains engagement.

“In contrast, illiquid or erratic markets generate unstable pricing, often mistaken for integrity risks. Wild fluctuations undermine public trust and attract scrutiny.

“More accurate pricing is not just a technical win - it’s a structural benefit for everyone.”

He said trainers, owners, punters, stewards, and regulators all operate with more confidence when markets reflect genuine, informed opinion rather than noise.

Straight Talk Special: Insights from pro punters Nick Heathcote and John Walter on racing’s greatest challenges

“In short, professional money isn’t a distortion – it’s the corrective force that keeps the market fair, trusted, and sustainable,” he said.

Questioned about totalisator rebates offered to select syndicates and punters, he said “rebate systems are effective when introduced within an equitable and transparent framework”.

“The Hong Kong Jockey Club offers a structured rebate program available to all players who meet the minimum wagering requirements,” he said.

“After years of decline, betting revenue started an upward trend since the introduction of the rebate system.”

Publicised rebates in Hong Kong are 10 per cent for win and place bets over HK$10,000 and 12 per cent for Quinella and Quinella Place/Duet markets. 

The punter believed that the growing popularity of the same race multi-bet type among corporate bookmaker account holders had led to the ongoing decline of the tote, the once-dominant force in Australian racing.

One of Australia's biggest professional punters says tote pools will continue to struggle for liquidity. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

“Not only has the SRM product had an impact on tote liquidity, importantly, there is less recreational money in the tote pools in favour of the SRM product,” he said.

“This has led to Australian tote pools becoming even more competitive. The edge has eroded for marginal players, triggering a quiet but persistent exit of liquidity providers that further accelerates the decline in tote viability.  

“Putting the negative impact of the SRM product on tote pools aside, it is clear that there have been some significant industry benefits since the popularisation of this product.”

That point of view echoes that of fellow professional John Walter in a recent edition of the Straight Talk podcast,

“While recreational bettors may not consciously notice the impact of slightly worse odds, their experience subtly changes" - a professional punter's view on the state of Australian wagering 

Tabcorp is seeking to achieve its single totalisator pool by merging SuperTAB, NSW TAB and UTAB pools, an undertaking that current CEO Gillon McLachlan has given publicly since being appointed to lead the wagering company last year. 

It is something Australia’s top professional punter believes is a necessity.

“Given the consistent decline in our totes, this needs to happen. Merged tote pools will bring additional liquidity and, therefore, industry revenue,” he said.

[Murray Fish]

1 minute ago, Murray Fish said:

“Market percentage is a direct function of turnover elasticity across all segments of punters,” he said. 

“While recreational bettors may not consciously notice the impact of slightly worse odds, their experience subtly changes. 

“Over time, their bankrolls deplete faster, reducing overall engagement, even if they can't articulate the precise cause.”