Melbourne Cup placegetter on the way back

[Thomass]

Great to hear the pommy neddy PRINCE OF ARRAN is back bigtime..according to Charlie F, his trainer...Great 3rd last year and on track for the good form race the Ebor later this month

Ebor the "perfect race" for Prince Of Arran, says Charlie Fellowes

Mon 12 Aug 2019

Charlie Fellowes believes Prince Of Arran can defy his advancing years and make his presence felt in the Sky Bet Ebor at York.

The evergreen six-year-old will try to gain his first win since landing a Group Three event at Flemington in November when lining up in the prestigious 14-furlong prize on August 24.

Although the son of Shirocco, who finished third in last year’s Melbourne Cup, has failed to win in more than eight months, the Newmarket handler is confident he will have plenty in his favour on the Knavesmire.

 

 

Prince Of Arran finished last of five at Goodwood on his return

Fellowes said: “I should think the Ebor will be the perfect race for Prince of Arran. A mile-six is his trip and a big field really suits him with a strong pace.

“His best races have come in the Northumberland Plate and Melbourne Cup and they were big fields.

“Hopefully everything should be ideal for him as it looks a quality line up and almost like the English version of the Melbourne Cup, although I’d be surprised if there are horses quite as good as Cross Counter and Marmelo in there.”

Prince of Arran failed to beat a rival home in his Ebor prep run in a Group Three at Goodwood earlier this month, but it was an effort Fellowes was more than happy with.

Fellowes said: “We were pretty happy with Prince Of Arran and we didn’t expect much more. It is harder getting these older horses fit and running him that day at Goodwood was like three pieces of work.

“We knew that the mile and a half there would be too sharp and although a lot of things were against him, he did great. He travelled great and he was in the mix until a furlong out when the others quickened past him.

“I’m delighted he went up there as that should hopefully put him spot on for York.”

Carnwennan and Stevie Donohoe seen winning the Northumberland Vase at Newcastle will head to York later this month (Clint Hughes/PA Images)

A trip to York will also be on the agenda for Northumberland Vase winner Carnwennan, with Fellowes earmarking the Sky Bet Handicap Stakes as his next target.

He added: “Carnwennan will go to York for the two-mile handicap worth £70,000 as we know he handles the track being a course and distance winner.

“We thought about going for the Shergar Cup, but this is worth more and it gives us another two weeks to get him ready.”

We know he has all his best form on quicker ground, so we will keep him to that nowCharlie Fellowes, trainer

The son of Cacique came unstuck in his quest for a four-timer at Newbury last time out, but Fellowes feels there was a legitimate excuse for that performance.

He added: “We were a bit worried about the soft ground as he had run on it once before and he was disappointing, but he was a young horse then and we thought we would give it another go.

“We know he has all his better form on quicker ground, so we will keep him to that now.”

 

...

[Weasel]

"evergreen' at 6 years old LOLOLOLOL

[Mooncoin]

Fellowes is a good young trainer who is not shy in labelling his horses in interviews(good on him).I know we are a wee way out from the Melbourne  carnival, but I have got my eye on a double D !! Dee Ex Bee and Duretto.

Any other thoughts?

[Thomass]

Yes what a breath of fresh air he is...not from a family horse background either moon?

Love to see POA do it and then come down on a high..

Heres some interesting KPI's for the Ebor...who knew WEIGHT had such an influence on the race?

Run over 1m6f the Betfred-sponsored Ebor Handicap is open to horses aged 3 or older and is run at York racecourse in August at their 4-day Ebor Festival Meeting. We’ve only seen one winning favourite land the prize in the last 20 years, so be wary of the market leaders, while with 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or younger then you might want to avoid any older horses in the race.

We look back at past winners and give you the key trends ahead of Europe’s most valuable flat handicap race – run this year on Saturday August 24th 2019.

 

Key Ebor Handicap Betting Trends

16/17 – Carried 9-4 or less
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
14/17 – Won from a double-figure stall
14/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
12/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/17 – Winning Distance – 1 length or less
10/17 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Had run at York before
5/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Irish-trained winners (4 of the last 9)
4/17 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/17 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/17 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/17 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
1/17 – Winning favourites
Just one winning favourite since 1999
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 21/1

Past Betfred Ebor Winners

2018 – Muntahaa (11/1)
2017 – Nakeeta (12/1)
2016 – Heartbreak City (15/2)
2015 – Litigant (33/1)
2014 – Mutual Regard (20/1)
2013 – Tiger Cliff (5/1)
2012 – Willing Foe (12/1)
2011 – Moyenne Corniche (25/1)
2010 – Dirar (14/1)
2009 – Sesenta (25/1)
2008 – All The Good (25/1)
2007 – Purple Moon (7/2 fav)
2006 – Mudawin (100/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (11/1)
2004 – Mephisto (6/1)
2003 – Saint Alebe (20/1)
2002 – Hugs Dancer (25/1)

Note: 2008 renewal at Newbury over 1m3f

 

So – what are the main stats to look for?

Age Concern – We saw a 6 year-old win the race in 2017 and a 7 year-old land the prize in 2015, but the main age trend got back on track last year with the 5 year-old Muntahaa going in. That win meant that 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or younger, while 12 of the last 17 (71%) were aged 4 or 5 years-old, so it should pay to concentrate more on this age range.

Quick Draw – With the Ebor being run over 1m6f then you may feel the draw won’t play a big role. However, this is certainly not the case. Having a good early position and not being forced to travel wide around the home bend into the long York straight has been a big advantage. A massive 14 of the last 17 winners came from a double-figure stall – backed-up again in 2018 with Muntahaa winning from stall 21. This will hopefully allow us to rule out a massive 9 of the 20ish runners that are likely to head to post. This draw trend is further backed-up as we’ve seen just two placed horses from stall one in the last 17 years, and 12 months ago the top four finishers all hailed from a double-figure draw.

Trip Advisor – I’ve already mentioned the race is run over 1m6f, but having winning form over a trip of at least 1m4f+ is key, with 14 of the last 17 winners ticking this stat. Of course, this trend will apply to most of the runners, but is still something to be aware of.

Weight Watchers – Being a handicap race, then weight carried is another factor to note. Yes, last year’s winner won with 9st-9lbs, but a massive 16 of the last 17 winners carried 9st-4lbs or less, so this should still be your cut-off point. Plus, if you want to take this trend a bit further then 12 of those 17 recent winners won with 9st-1lbs or less on their backs – this should help knock out a few at least.

Bookie v Punter – who has fared best? Well, the answer to this is a quick one. We’ve seen only one winning favourite since 1999 – while with a 100/1 winner popping up in 2006. Therefore, I think it’s safe to say this is a contest the bookmakers look forward to each season and have dominated in recent years. Oh, if you also like laying horses on the betting exchanges then you might be interested to know that 9 of the last 17 market leaders (53%) have NOT even made the frame (top four finish) – this was backed-up again in 2018 with the jolly only managing twelfth.

Fitness First – Having had a recent run seems to count for something too. Runners that had three or more outings that same season have done best. 10 of the last 17 fit the bill here, while 8 of the last 17 winners had previous course experience at York – two more trends that last year’s winner ticked. Plus, with a 9 of the last 17 (53%) winners having run at either Goodwood or Ascot last time out this is another form line to see if your fancy fulfils.

Stable Diet – Finally, which are the best yards to look for? Luca Cumani used to have a good record in the race, but he’s now retired. Trainer John Gosden won the prize for the first time last year and is sure to be keen on following up, but the Sir Michael Stoute is the stable with the best record. Okay, they’ve not won the prize since 1996, but the Stoute camp have recorded three wins in the Ebor between 1980 and 1996 – so maybe they are due another!

Finally, being run over 1m6f then it’s also a race some of the National Hunt yard tend to target – especially the Irish ones. Since 2009 we’ve had winners for the Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Johnny Murtagh and Tony Martin, so anything any Irish-based yard sends over should certainly be given a second glance.

[Mooncoin]

Good article  Thomo, fair play for not "withholding" information on the Ebor!!?

[Thomass]

Rather interesting alright mooned...especially the double figure Barrier one...

That could make some Punters think twice about ignoring general Barrier draws carte blanche!

[Thomass]

An absolutely top class EBOR last night in York  .  .  .this race is no longer just a battlers race after the conditions were changed  .  .  . .

The winner owned now by Australian Bloodstock will undoubtedly Head down for the Melbourne Cup in a few weeks time after that emphatic DCM effort  .  .  .

Went against the pattern of winning outside barriers.but MUSTAJEER has a history of needing a rail.or else he wanders all over the show-  

  .  .  .if he was racing down under he would have been blinkered long ago-for some reason they show a great reluctance to blinker up up there. .  .  

Just GET ON  this needy for the Cup now- 

Mustajeer Cups-bound after Ebor win

Racing Post@RacingPost

7:15am

, (

In the first £1 million Ebor Mustajeer had his last run for Ger Lyons, but he signed off from his time with the trainer in the most fitting way possible by landing York's historic handicap.

Purchased by Australian Bloodstock prior to York's showpiece race, the six-year-old will depart for Melbourne next month to join trainer Kris Lees.

Once there, he will be pinpointed for more rich handicap glory with the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups on the agenda, and after this performance it would take a brave man to doubt him. His new connections will no doubt be rubbing their hands at what the future holds.

Having finished fourth in the race last year, owner David Spratt revealed how Lyons immediately got to work in preparing Mustajeer for another crack at the Ebor.

Spratt said: "We started preparing for this after last year's race, when Gary Carroll gave him a beautiful ride. We were keen in the winter to send him down to Australia for the Sydney Cup, but in fairness to Ger, he said ‘Wait, this is a proper horse, let me train him properly’ and he’s got it spot on."

Lyons was busy working back in Ireland, such are the demands of training, and was represented at York by his daughter Kerri, who revealed just how much the year-long effort meant to her father.

“I spoke to him immediately after the race and he was absolutely delighted,” she said. “Not many words came out of his mouth, he was just over the moon and couldn’t believe it. This has been the plan all along so the fact it worked out in the end is hard to believe. It feels unreal."

Here was a plan that certainly did come together.

On Mustajeer's future, she added: "He’ll be prepped for quarantine and will probably leave for Australia in September. He’s going to come back with us now and go out into the field to enjoy himself."

With £600,000 going to winning connections, jockey Colin Keane was revealed to be scooping a tidy £41,000 for guiding Mustajeer to the promised land.

As the 2017 Irish champion jockey lifted two bottles of champagne into the air in celebration of his success, he remained as humble as ever, giving thanks to his equine partner and Lyons.

He said: "It was a very good performance and it was all pretty smooth really – I gave him a squeeze when I needed to and he responded accordingly – but it’s a brilliant training performance by Ger."

WATCH: Mustajeer win the Ebor

The jockeys were firmly in the spotlight prior to the contest as a big-fight feel descended on the Knavesmire. In what felt akin to that of a heavyweight boxing clash at Madison Square Garden, the riders made their way to the parade ring one by one, with ITV Racing's Oli Bell listing each of their achievements to hearty applause.

And when the dust settled, as the runners went blow-for-blow for almost three minutes it was Mustajeer who landed the knockout hit on his rivals.

However, you can’t say he had it easy.

Hot on his heels in the closing stages was Godolphin representative Red Galileo, their famous blue silks worn by young apprentice Cieren Fallon, but the pair were unable to close the gap in time, eventually downed by three-quarters of a length.

Fallon was disappointed not to win, such is the competitive streak needed to be a jockey, but having only one ride to his name this time last year, the jockey could not help but share his excitement at being able to be a part of such a historic race.

“I was very lucky to get the ride, and to finish second is pretty special for me,” said Fallon. “Red Galileo has run a superb race and full credit to him – he’s had an absolute blinder.”

Charlie Johnston, assistant trainer to his father Mark, was another who tried to look at the positives as the season’s rapid improver King’s Advice finished 18th.

Having run in a Class 5 at Lingfield less than six months ago, no-one would have believed the five-year-old would be lining up in the Ebor and among the favourites to land the jackpot.

But having been raised 41lb for those successes, the handicapper was always going to catch up with him.

Johnston said: "It was a disappointing run. He had a tough trip from a bad draw, and was never in the race. He’s had a phenomenal year so he’s lost nothing in defeat, but it’s back to the drawing board and we’ll go again."

 

Edited August 24, 2019 by Thomass

[Thomass]

 

[Thomass]

  and of course Prince of Arran. HUGE IN 8th  needed the run.

[Mooncoin]

Hotly run race Thomo, which  suit the off the pace runners.Ground was pretty firm which wouldn't have  suited a few runners. Good enough runs by Prince and Withhold on that ground if they go down under.

 

 

 

[SLB2.0]

One idiot on the other channel believes Ebor form or hurdle form, for that matter, doesn't stack up in the Melbourne Cup.

Heartbreak City. Second behind Almandin in 2016 - had nine starts over the hurdles.

That's one of many hurdlers that have run well in the Cup.

[Mooncoin]

On 25/08/2019 at 2:45 AM, Thomass said:

  and of course Prince of Arran. HUGE IN 8th  needed the run.

Thomo are you on the Prince at 33/1 ante post?

Edited August 27, 2019 by Mooncoin