Freda Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Pro punter Dr Nick exits Australian racing, says bookmaker Rob Waterhouse. Waterhouse blames increased taxes on bookmakers, for the decision. 'The flow-on effect for the industry could be a disaster ', he says, ' I suspect he accounts for about six per cent of Aus racig turnover, so that will be lost immediately. Sean Bartholomew has been a huge punter, but now concentrates on England and America. Zelijko still bets big, but nowhere near as big as he once did. It's all in response to taxes.' The concern is that the increased taxes of recent times could see many big punters abandon racing and turn to other sports. I think Mardi and Curious, in particular, have been indicating the likelihood of this result for quite some time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) The greed of groups that think they can just charge more and more to betting operators - who are going to pass on those charges to their customers, is indicative of their limited understanding of the marketplace. They think tax them more and we get more and nothing else will change. It's ludicrous. People don't just have more and more funds to front up with. And those charges that are turnover related like racefields and PoC, affect the rate at which people lose their money (because odds are ultimately affected). And I think racefields is a reasonable charge. But it should be on operator profit, not operator turnover. Since you should be trying to keep the operators in business and charging them for being able to make money from your information. On turnover, all it does is wipe the punting customers out of business since it becomes an above the line expense to the operator - which they pass on in order to control their business. PoC is simply a stupid charge which is worse than racefields and harder for the operator to manage seamlessly. So they likely operate on the worst case scenario. Edited December 13, 2019 by mardigras 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 hours ago, Freda said: Pro punter Dr Nick exits Australian racing, says bookmaker Rob Waterhouse. Waterhouse blames increased taxes on bookmakers, for the decision. 'The flow-on effect for the industry could be a disaster ', he says, ' I suspect he accounts for about six per cent of Aus racig turnover, so that will be lost immediately. Sean Bartholomew has been a huge punter, but now concentrates on England and America. Zelijko still bets big, but nowhere near as big as he once did. It's all in response to taxes.' The concern is that the increased taxes of recent times could see many big punters abandon racing and turn to other sports. I think Mardi and Curious, in particular, have been indicating the likelihood of this result for quite some time. The mystery is with that clear evidence emerging in OZ, why on earth would they follow suit here? Even if they were too thick to figure out the predictable result, to implement here what is clearly failing there is completely nuts. We were in enough trouble beforehand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 https://www.racenet.com.au/news/pro-punter-dr-nick--exits-aussie-racing--huge-turnover-plunge-tipped-20191213 Waterhouse knows Dr Nick, whose identity is shrouded in secrecy, and says he has “closed down his Australian operation” which employed a large staff across many betting syndicates. Waterhouse blamed increased taxes on bookmakers, which in turn meant they were offering worse odds, for Dr Nick’s decision to abandon Australian racing. And he said the flow-on impact could be disastrous for the racing industry. “What I do know is that Dr Nick has closed down his Australian operation,” Waterhouse told Racenet. “I suspect he probably accounts for six percent of Australian (racing) turnover so you would lose that straight away. “I think his turnover through totes and pre-post and Betfair would be six percent (of total Australian turnover). “It must lead to a drop in prizemoney. “The real problem though is that it is a symptom of a disease, the taxes are just too high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freda Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, curious said: The mystery is with that clear evidence emerging in OZ, why on earth would they follow suit here? Even if they were too thick to figure out the predictable result, to implement here what is clearly failing there is completely nuts. We were in enough trouble beforehand. Thick is the word...but, even when revenue is impacted, it will still be light years ahead of ours, so the problem won't be recognised as a 'problem' here, for quite some time I should think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Freda said: Thick is the word...but, even when revenue is impacted, it will still be light years ahead of ours, so the problem won't be recognised as a 'problem' here, for quite some time I should think. You may be right Freda but I'm picking they will know within 12 months of the PoC tax being implemented. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freda Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 I don't think I put my thoughts very well..! I meant that, given the astronomical stakes in Australia, any downturn there will still [ to us ] be insignificant to the differential. They will still be considered the utopia for racing from our point of view. Given that our managing personnel haven't managed to comprehend that higher takeouts stifle betting, any correlation is likely to be missed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bloggs Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Here's a question for you, how many of the Petone rable would gain employment in the industry in Oz? Inc Saundry returning? Mark Mac is struggling and he's a talent.......those without talent are better off to go down with the ship. Maybe JA will look for a gig, although he should have stashed away enough dosh to buy a winery down in Otago highlands with all the other corporate and entertainment B Grade celebrity drop outs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 So, what happens now in the absence of Dr Nick? Article Author Stephen Brassel 3:08PM16 December 2019 1 Comments Last weeks story that the mysterious Dr Nick was turning his back on betting on local racing certainly caused a stir and had the debate running hot on the Racenet website, so what could the real repercussions be? EXIT ‘DR NICK’ - SO WHAT ARE THE REPERCUSSIONS I had a lengthy discussion with Tristan Merlehan of TopSport over the weekend about the exit of Dr Nick from betting on Australian racing and he made some extremely salient points. For those who may not know of TopSport they are the ones who take on the majority of the ‘low margin’ punters, the likes of Dr Nick and all the other big boys. While there has been plenty of scepticism around the overall effect on turnover of one individual Tristan suggested he wouldn’t be surprised if indeed the numbers mentioned were very real. As he pointed out Dr Nick may not have a direct six percent effect on the market himself, the figure mentioned by Robbie Waterhouse, but his activities could certainly account for that much, and possibly more. Tristan pointed out that Dr Nick bets significantly with the family-owned TopSport and the flow on effect is the market becomes more active and other players come into action. “Dr Nick may back a couple and the market reacts with others following the money, but that activity causes other horses to ease to a palatable price which then triggers betting on those runners,” Tristan said. Whatever way you look at it any decline in turnover isn’t what the racing industry needs as the massive prizemoney splash of recent times just isn’t sustainable without strong turnover across the board. Read the initial Dr Nick story HERE. PERCENTAGES DO MATTER With the increase in taxes bookies just aren’t offering anywhere near the value we, as punters were able to secure 12 months ago. Tristan gave me an indication of what affect the taxes have had on the TopSport prices. When the Melbourne Cup field jumped this year, his market was 119% compared to last year when it was 116.4%. The 2019 Caulfield Cup was at 120.1% compared to 115.4% and the Victoria Derby 120.3% compared to 115.2% in 2018. With no Winx the Cox Plate was a massive 124% against 110.2% in the last year of the great mares four-peat. Some will say who cares, the punters will take whatever they are offered. But the reality is no they won’t and many of the serious players won’t take the price as it’s not value against what they have a specific horse rated at, so they turn their back on the race, and in the case of Dr Nick they turn their back on Australian racing. The rise in percentages is a direct result of the increased taxes on bookmakers and as we’ve seen in the case of Dr Nick there is in fact a breaking point at which punters will accept and when they won’t. Now before those who feel this is a case of feeling sorry for the bookies jump all over me, I can assure you I’m not, I’m actually concerned for the punters and the overall health of the Australian racing industry. Lost turnover = lost revenue = lost prizemoney = lost owners = lost jobs. SPORTS BETTING IS THE DANGER Now let’s forget about racing for a minute and look at the Australian wagering landscape. Tristan went back through his figures and pointed out that in 2013-14 his business was 76.2% racing and 23.8% sport. Today the hold is running at 50-50 with the sport hold increasing 311% in that five-year period. He says the sport hold will be much more than racing in the coming years unless something changes with the taxes, and changes soon. WINGS CLIPPED FOR PEGASUS After the inaugural running of the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park in 2017 the initial ‘slot holder’ race has met its demise under its starting format so you might ask ‘is this a sign of things to come for The Everest?’ I think not. The 2017 Pegasus World Cup was won by champion galloper Arrogate and was followed by Gun Runner in 2018 and City Of Light earlier this year. However while the winners have been bona fide stars the problem with the Pegasus has been there were never any more than a couple of chances, so how would 12 people want to fork out the US$1m to purchase a slot when you’ve got little hope getting a hold of the winner? Now we see The Stronach Group, who run the event, changing tack and running both the 2020 Pegasus World Cup Invitational and World Cup Turf Invitational without any entry fees - the slots are gone. But so too has the prizemoney, the inaugural Pegasus World Cup was worth US$12m, then it was upped to US$16m and this year it was US$17m, but that was split over two races worth $9m and $7m with a $1m bonus on offer if an owner won both, and the slot holders forked out $500,000, and there were 24 of them this year. Now the 2020 version of the inaugural dirt race has been reduced to US$3m with the turf edition worth ‘just’ US$1m after being run under much fanfare for $7m last January. It would be nice to say it was great while it lasted but the reality was it wasn’t for the majority of participants – but that’s not saying the event didn’t get the wheels turning here in Australia. The Everest was modelled on the Pegasus concept, but unlike the US version the Randwick slot holder race has gone from strength-to-strength with slots now very much sought after. There has been no standout in any edition of The Everest and in the three runnings so far virtually every horse that turned up on the day has been a live chance, and with all the current slot holders indicating they want more the future seems well and truly assured for the Aussie version. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Maybe Thomaas and Petone should read the above article. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Nothing at all surprising in that follow-up post. Very obvious and something that the likes of NZTR and NZRB simply do not comprehend. (Nor do the Australian equivalents). They all just think punters will carry on and the price makes no difference - and they'll all be happy to lose more over the course of the year compared to previously. Something mentioned often on sites such as this over the years by many. And NZRB didn't understand it back then, and they still don't understand it now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Has anyone else noticed this with respect to Oz markets? My observation is that at least for Sydney Melbourne metro, that FO markets are now at best level with and usually worse than the tote ones. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 26 minutes ago, curious said: Has anyone else noticed this with respect to Oz markets? My observation is that at least for Sydney Melbourne metro, that FO markets are now at best level with and usually worse than the tote ones. They are - since the market % has risen. Being at 125%+ for a long time - when the tote win market is 117% approx. It takes a long time before the fixed odds gets down to anywhere near that and as pointed out above, they often are staying above that level. It highlights what a poor decision it was for a state owned operator like NZ TAB to open up fixed odds and not concentrate on developing the tote market (no risk, minimal staff costs). As I wrote on another thread in the trots section, fixed odds should have been opened up to other operators if that was wanted, and NZ TAB/racing industry should have simply clipped the ticket. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I can't help but wonder what might be happening now if the Minister had engaged someone like Tristan Merlehan instead of Messara to write the report to the Minister and also had a couple like him on the MAC …... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedley Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 More likely you'd've gotten a sovereign outcome instead of a Globalist one., Messara is a globalist and has tailormade for a certain outcome that sees NZ Racing crippled ripe for the Australian assymulation of us., . . .that's the outcome desired by 'the helm' 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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