Thomass Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Interesting how 'overbet' some neddys become due to unforeseen circumstances... Similar to 'Who Shot the Barman' always had a following from Dad joke followers Several years back, I tested a theory that horses with popular boys or girls names were overbet in parimutuel markets. My hunch was that the betting public is more likely to bet on a horse if that horse's name contained their own name (or that of their wife, son, daughter, etc.). I arrived at that hunch by extrapolating from a sample size of one - me.What I found in that original analysis, using a limited dataset of races run in California, was weak evidence for my theory, but that fell short of statistical significance. However, I now have a much more robust dataset, consisting of nearly all races run in North America over the past four years.With this new dataset of some 200,000 races, I ran a logistic regression on the probability of a horse winning a race using the following variables: logodds: the logarithm of the horses betting odds, adjusted for the track take boysname: a binary variable indicating whether the horse's name contains one of the top 100 boys names over the past 100 years girlsname: a binary variable indicating whether the horse's name contains one of the top 100 girls names over the past 100 years Here is the R output: Under a perfectly efficient market, the first two terms (intercept and logodds) would be 0 and -1 respectively, The fact that they aren't are a reflection of the favorite longshot bias, in which favorites are underbet relative to their true odds and long shots are overbet. The next term, boysname, is statistically significant, and directionally indicates that boys names are overbet. As an example, assume a horse's odds imply a win probability of 20%. If the horse's name does not contain a boys name, the true probability is 20.5% according to the favorite longshot bias correction of the first two terms. But if the horse contains a boy's name, then the true probability drops to 19.6%. So, it turns out my original hunch was on the mark, at least for boys names. Girls' names however fall short of statistical significance, although the coefficient indicates possible overbetting, but not to the extent with boys' names. So, if you're betting the races at Churchill Downs today, you may want to avoid bets on Dan the Go To Man, Dragon Drew, Shane Zain, or My Boy Jack. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 No Thomaas did not write the above post. He copied it from here https://www.inpredictable.com/2018/05/never-bet-horse-named-joe-update.html The giveaway was that it was actually readable! 2 Quote
Thomass Posted January 1, 2020 Author Posted January 1, 2020 Oh shoot I thought I could get away with that Chef.... ...just as well you're not into plagerism... However, almost every dog and their mutts would have realised I don't live in Cali Forn eeee eh? 1 Quote
Chief Stipe Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 59 minutes ago, Thomass said: However, almost every dog and their mutts would have realised I don't live in Cali Forn eeee eh? Who would know and who would want to know where you live. As for the article you copied it seems to confirm the reliability of your BP - i.e. it isn't reliable. 1 Quote
mardigras Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 Just like horses that start with the letter M. People are drawn to them. You get horses with names starting like Magnificent, Momentous, Magical. Imagine a horse called Mince Pie. Some people would be drawn to backing it. If it were people who worked at the TAB, the letter S is over bet - horses with names such as Sausage Roll or Sausage Sizzle gets them going. Thomass on the other hand would be drawn into over betting horses that start with the letter F - Fraudulent Freddie or Fake News for a couple of examples. 1 Quote
Freda Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: Just like horses that start with the letter M. People are drawn to them. You get horses with names starting like Magnificent, Momentous, Magical. Imagine a horse called Mince Pie. Some people would be drawn to backing it. If it were people who worked at the TAB, the letter S is over bet - horses with names such as Sausage Roll or Sausage Sizzle gets them going. Thomass on the other hand would be drawn into over betting horses that start with the letter F - Fraudulent Freddie or Fake News for a couple of examples. What about 'P' - Plastic Princess.........? Edited January 2, 2020 by Freda 1 2 Quote
mardigras Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Freda said: What about 'P' - Plastic Princess.........? For sure, for some, there would be too many to mention. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Freda said: What about 'P' - Plastic Princess.........? I know a guy at the local who always includes in his multi's any horse with the letter Z in it. Has done well with the Zed's performing. Quote
Thomass Posted January 2, 2020 Author Posted January 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, mardigras said: Just like horses that start with the letter M. People are drawn to them. You get horses with names starting like Magnificent, Momentous, Magical. Imagine a horse called Mince Pie. Some people would be drawn to backing it. If it were people who worked at the TAB, the letter S is over bet - horses with names such as Sausage Roll or Sausage Sizzle gets them going. Thomass on the other hand would be drawn into over betting horses that start with the letter F - Fraudulent Freddie or Fake News for a couple of examples. Actually...that's probably your best piece of attempted humour yet.... Would Steak Pie be more overbet than Mince though? ...or would average less sophisticated Joe align themselves with what they eat best...fatty Mince? But...Oh boy what a Xmas punting extravaganza it's been....Theres SO much uneducated money out there at this time of the year from pissed peeps.... ...I'm drinking Champers 24/7 And in celebration of the Prince Albert/Paisley Park Double I got..at 40/1...you know Black Type form back to inferior Im getting one... ...the Princess is beside herself with exctasy already Quote
Thomass Posted January 2, 2020 Author Posted January 2, 2020 26 minutes ago, Freda said: What about 'P' - Plastic Princess.........? Now Freda... ..if you carry on like that I'm going to have to set my Pig dog, Black bitch Beth onto you... Quote
mardigras Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Thomass said: Actually...that's probably your best piece of attempted humour yet.... Odd - goes to show what you think is funny. It wasn't designed to be humorous. 1 minute ago, Thomass said: And in celebration of the Prince Albert/Paisley Park Double I got..at 40/1...you know Black Type form back to inferior If you'd got onto what was announced as the letter of the month being 'P' , you wouldn't have needed your stupid BP - and you could have multied those two up along with Play That Song, Prise De Fer and Platinum Invador for more like 2500-1 - a lot more than your 40-1. You stick with your 40-1 BP, we'll stick with the letter of the month. Quote
Mooncoin Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 Is it safe to go back into the water T?... Leakage!!.... who knew! Quote
curious Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Thomass said: And in celebration of the Prince Albert/Paisley Park Double I got..at 40/1...you know Black Type form back to inferior Oh, so you noted that "P" was the letter of the month to begin 2020? Well done for subscribing. Suggest you get in now through the end of the financial year because the resounding success is likely to result in significant increases inubscription rates from April 1. There may also be an increased limitation on subscription numbers because it's starting to affect pricing unlike the BP. Edited January 2, 2020 by curious 2 Quote
Thomass Posted January 2, 2020 Author Posted January 2, 2020 Haha...actually NO...but good train spotting.... Now what is your 'secreted' 'tipping' site tipping today? Are yous fellas THAT BAD you don't like TRANSPARENCY?? F me...And here's moi thinking only the RIU did that... Quote
barryb Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 42 minutes ago, Thomass said: Now Freda... ..if you carry on like that I'm going to have to set my Pig dog, Black bitch Beth onto you... Hmm I don't think you know your black bitch Beth very well as she/he appears to have a pee pee. 2 Quote
mardigras Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Thomass said: Haha...actually NO...but good train spotting.... Now what is your 'secreted' 'tipping' site tipping today? Are yous fellas THAT BAD you don't like TRANSPARENCY?? F me...And here's moi thinking only the RIU did that... Well I delivered Paisley Park - before the races - unlike you. And the letter P for this month has been known for some time. We'll tell you the tips tomorrow morning - after the races - like you and ATA do. Edited January 2, 2020 by mardigras Quote
Thomass Posted January 2, 2020 Author Posted January 2, 2020 NO! Black bitch Beth told me she wanted to transition...that's going to be lasered off any day now ...is that cruel??......but good train spotting bazzo Just get on the 'B's today obviously...bazz...Best Quote
mardigras Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Just like horses that start with the letter M. And just like that - Moiras Town. Double figures - easy. That one wasn't over bet. M and a person's name. 2 Quote
barryb Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, Thomass said: NO! Black bitch Beth told me she wanted to transition...that's going to be lasered off any day now ...is that cruel??......but good train spotting bazzo Just get on the 'B's today obviously...bazz...Best Even a fraud about owning a dog. Quote
barryb Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, mardigras said: And just like that - Moiras Town. Double figures - easy. That one wasn't over bet. M and a person's name. I am waiting for the result to be confirmed and then I will back it. 1 Quote
curious Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 21 minutes ago, mardigras said: And just like that - Moiras Town. Double figures - easy. That one wasn't over bet. M and a person's name. No "P"s in that race though so my subscribers didn't have a bet. 1 Quote
curious Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 A second in the second though. Should improve from here! Quote
Thomass Posted January 3, 2020 Author Posted January 3, 2020 Haha, I knew this thread would get yous fellas going round in circles like dunking doughboys... When you want a bit of smack talk just come over here and I'll be spanking yous hard az... Its relly relly sad though that Shrewman and Putty can't stand being exposed by your horrendous 'take' on things punting... ...where you've decided to hide under a rock... ...back under boys... ...yous old f'ers must be all tired out by now....zzzzz Quote
mardigras Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 It's a simple matter of highlighting just how stupid your methods/your Blue Print is. It's been smashed. Even the letter P and the letter M are more useful. And now just another winner at Te Aroha. Too easy. Quote
curious Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thomass said: Haha, I knew this thread would get yous fellas going round in circles like dunking doughboys... When you want a bit of smack talk just come over here and I'll be spanking yous hard az... Its relly relly sad though that Shrewman and Putty can't stand being exposed by your horrendous 'take' on things punting... ...where you've decided to hide under a rock... ...back under boys... ...yous old f'ers must be all tired out by now....zzzzz The "P" wins the third. Just get on. 1 Quote
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