All The Aces Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, Bid said: Im buggered if I know what is going on then because all the recent articles you read are saying once horses begin working again on Tuesday?... Not until there is sign-off by DIA, MPI, MBIE and Worksafe. There can be no return to training, trialing or racing until NZTR get sign-off from the government. 1 Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 15 minutes ago, All The Aces said: Not until there is sign-off by DIA, MPI, MBIE and Worksafe. There can be no return to training, trialing or racing until NZTR get sign-off from the government. What legislation says that this is the case? What the hell do MPI or MBIE have to do with how fast a horse is ridden? What's more what the hell would they know about it? Quote
mardigras Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 15 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: What legislation says that this is the case? What the hell do MPI or MBIE have to do with how fast a horse is ridden? What's more what the hell would they know about it? Lockdown getting to you chief? I'm sure there are some numbers available for you to ring and have a chat. Might help. 1 Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 1 minute ago, mardigras said: Lockdown getting to you chief? I'm sure there are some numbers available for you to ring and have a chat. Might help. Yeah well that those numbers will probably not take me to any of the 3,000 people who are paid an average salary of $100,00 a year to work at MPI - will it? How many of that 3,000 have ridden a horse? I have no problem with taking action to suppress Covid-19 infection spread but some bureaucrat telling me how fast I can work a horse having an impact on that spread I just fail to understand. Australian racing is by comparison in full flight and the State of NSW just announced 7 new cases for yesterday. Go figure! Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, curious said: Some numbers are better than others. I'd expect better from you Curious as an academic although it was in the social sciences wasn't it. Why don't you put up the same graph relative to the total population in each country? Quote
mardigras Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Yeah well that those numbers will probably not take me to any of the 3,000 people who are paid an average salary of $100,00 a year to work at MPI - will it? How many of that 3,000 have ridden a horse? I have no problem with taking action to suppress Covid-19 infection spread but some bureaucrat telling me how fast I can work a horse having an impact on that spread I just fail to understand. Australian racing is by comparison in full flight and the State of NSW just announced 7 new cases for yesterday. Go figure! Well Australia protected their borders pretty quickly. Good on them. My question is, why worry about whether you can ride a horse fast or not. What's the rush. Why not just wait until Level 2? Two weeks (if that is as expected), is hardly a major. It's not like NZ racing is going to be all go on the daft, I mean draft schedule. 1 Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, mardigras said: My question is, why worry about whether you can ride a horse fast or not. What's the rush. Why not just wait until Level 2? Two weeks (if that is as expected), is hardly a major. That is your opinion and an assumption. My gripe is with the Government bureaucrats like MPI that are determining what we can and can't do. If you look on another channel the little ex-dwarfs are using their platform to try and nail someone who is training their horses faster than others on their own property. I do find some irony in that given tomorrow is ANZAC day. Quote
curious Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, mardigras said: Lockdown getting to you chief? I'm sure there are some numbers available for you to ring and have a chat. Might help. Just in case google isn't working in your bubble Chief. We’ve got the hammers – should we be hitting more nails? https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/22-03-2020/the-government-is-giving-new-orders-do-we-have-to-obey-them/ Edited April 24, 2020 by curious Quote
mardigras Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: That is your opinion and an assumption. My gripe is with the Government bureaucrats like MPI that are determining what we can and can't do. If you look on another channel the little ex-dwarfs are using their platform to try and nail someone who is training their horses faster than others on their own property. I do find some irony in that given tomorrow is ANZAC day. What's the assumption? That 2 weeks is hardly a major. The same type of assumption that if you disagree, that you are making. It's all just opinion. Quote
curious Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: I'd expect better from you Curious as an academic although it was in the social sciences wasn't it. Why don't you put up the same graph relative to the total population in each country? No. My first degree is in science. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, curious said: No. My first degree is in science. As was mine. I'm surprised that you would give any credence to that graph you posted. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, mardigras said: What's the assumption? That 2 weeks is hardly a major. The same type of assumption that if you disagree, that you are making. It's all just opinion. So we are being governed on opinion not science? Quote
curious Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said: So we are being governed on opinion not science? It's informed opinion which has come up with different answwers in different countries. Which opinion was best can not be known for quite some time and probably never in any robust way as we have no control group. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 1 minute ago, curious said: It's informed opinion which has come up with different answwers in different countries. Which opinion was best can not be known for quite some time and probably never in any robust way as we have no control group. Disagree there is more data out there than we have ever had in history. Our Bureaucrats have never been smart enough to utilise it. Anyway back to the draft calendar - we should be going to the Sir Humphrey Appleby's with what WE want NOT what we think they'll accept. NEVER negotiate from the low ground. For those of you who don't know who Sir Humphrey is - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humphrey_Appleby That's where our industry leaders are letting us down. Love him or hate him I wish we had someone like Peter V'landys at the helm. Quote
mardigras Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Disagree there is more data out there than we have ever had in history. Our Bureaucrats have never been smart enough to utilise it. There is no data out there that will tell you what will happen in the future based on doing x. None. Quote
curious Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: As was mine. I'm surprised that you would give any credence to that graph you posted. Well, I don't need a degree to know that 0% of 0 untraceable cases is zero per head of population. Quote
curious Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 36 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: If you look on another channel the little ex-dwarfs are using their platform to try and nail someone who is training their horses faster than others on their own property. I do find some irony in that given tomorrow is ANZAC day. Where is it that they are doing that? I thought it was the opposite but maybe I'm looking in the wrong place. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: There is no data out there that will tell you what will happen in the future based on doing x. None. Doesn't have to. You are disappointing me as much as Curious. You use historical data to assess risk/value/reward to determine where to spend your punting money. Why can't that type of analysis be used to determine other event outcomes? Our hospitals are 50% empty. Covid-19 in 6 weeks has only filled 14 ICU beds - predominantly with people with comorbidities. Surely doing some risk assessment we could have done better than that. Quote
curious Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Doesn't have to. You are disappointing me as much as Curious. You use historical data to assess risk/value/reward to determine where to spend your punting money. Why can't that type of analysis be used to determine other event outcomes? Our hospitals are 50% empty. Covid-19 in 6 weeks has only filled 14 ICU beds - predominantly with people with comorbidities. Surely doing some risk assessment we could have done better than that. Better than keeping need down to 50% of available hospital beds? What would you consider satisfactory? 20%.....30% Quote
mardigras Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Doesn't have to. You are disappointing me as much as Curious. You use historical data to assess risk/value/reward to determine where to spend your punting money. Why can't that type of analysis be used to determine other event outcomes? Our hospitals are 50% empty. Covid-19 in 6 weeks has only filled 14 ICU beds - predominantly with people with comorbidities. Surely doing some risk assessment we could have done better than that. But that tells me a level of prediction, not a 'will happen'. It's not going to be exact. Hence why different scientists have suggested variant things in the case of this situation. And I'd say that type of analysis is being done to determine the eventual outcomes here. What makes you think it hasn't been done that way? You're suggesting that low deaths and hospital occupancy means the decisions have been poor. I have no idea why since you can't measure what they would have been under any other scenario, you can only use the information available at the time to help you make the best decision. Next time we'll get the government to make decisions that actually fill the beds up. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, curious said: Better than keeping need down to 50% of available hospital beds? What would you consider satisfactory? 20%.....30% 85% their normal "best average" occupancy. Even that is crap. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, mardigras said: And I'd say that type of analysis is being done to determine the eventual outcomes here. What makes you think it hasn't been done that way? Because 50% of our hospital beds are empty. ICU is empty. 14 occupied out of 300. There are people out there that were on surgery lists to fix issues that if not fixed will reduce their life expectancy. I personally know one. I could process the numbers on my laptop. By world comparison the numbers we deal with are not huge. FFS our systems fail when we try to trace 85 people a day! Google does that in real time for the whole population that uses the internet! Quote
mardigras Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, Chief Stipe said: 85% their normal "best average" occupancy. Even that is crap. What is crap is the relevance the current occupancy has as to the effectiveness of the decision making. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: What is crap is the relevance the current occupancy has as to the effectiveness of the decision making. Why? Quote
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