Draft calendar

[mardigras]

Just now, Chief Stipe said:

Because 50% of our hospital beds are empty.  ICU is empty.  14 occupied out of 300.  There are people out there that were on surgery lists to fix issues that if not fixed will reduce their life expectancy.  I personally know one.

I could process the numbers on my laptop.  By world comparison the numbers we deal with are not huge.

FFS our systems fail when we try to trace 85 people a day!  Google does that in real time for the whole population that uses the internet!

As I say, there are phone lines available.

You won't be satisfied unless the beds are full with either Covid cases or patients with other requirements. I'm sure you could have come up with just the right decisions to make that balance happen. Anyone would think having full hospitals was actually a goal.

Now you're complaining about our systems. When decisions were made, our systems were what they were. Did you want them to make different decision on the basis that they should have better systems? That would have worked out well.

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Why?

Because you're suggesting they needed to male a decision that would keep occupancy at the same levels. They needed to make decisions that were overall in the best interests of the country. Welfare of virus cases, welfare of non virus patients, welfare of the economy, welfare of education etc etc. Not whether they could keep occupancy of their hospitals at 85% or whatever the norm is.

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Because you're suggesting they needed to male a decision that would keep occupancy at the same levels. They needed to make decisions that were overall in the best interests of the country. Welfare of virus cases, welfare of non virus patients, welfare of the economy, welfare of education etc etc. Not whether they could keep occupancy of their hospitals at 85% or whatever the norm is.

It's a bit like your bakery Mardigras.  You sunk all the capital costs into it, you are still paying your staff but you decide to reduce production to 50% when demand is more than you can produce.  Isn't that dumb?

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

It's a bit like your bakery Mardigras.  You sunk all the capital costs into it, you are still paying your staff but you decide to reduce production to 50% when demand is more than you can produce.  Isn't that dumb?

My bakery has noticed that the available yeast is causing major sickness in people. So instead of maintaining my bakery at full production, I curb it back to ensure it only uses yeast that meets the quality criteria.

That has me running my bakery at 15% of normal capacity. Even though I am making a lot less money and my business is running at very low levels of capacity. As the yeast issue is overcome, I can start to increase the production level, and make more product.

When the yeast issue is fully overcome, I'll resume my bakery at full speed.

I'd rather lose some bakery sales now, than make a bunch of people more sick from eating my products, due to my poor decision.

 

 

[All The Aces]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

I'd expect better from you Curious as an academic although it was in the social sciences wasn't it.  Why don't you put up the same graph relative to the total population in each country?

As at yesterday 1451 cases and 16 deaths which works out as:

A case fatality ratio of just over 1%

301 infections per million people 

3 deaths per million

That places us 77th place in the world for highest infection rate out of the 211 countries being tracked by data website Worldometer. We are slightly below the world average of 337 infections per million.

As for deaths we are ranked alongside China, Australia, Lebanon, Qatar and a few others. 

[Chief Stipe]

6 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I'd rather lose some bakery sales now, than make a bunch of people more sick from eating my products, due to my poor decision.

 

All good Mardigras - I hope you did that without the taxpayer pitching in to fund your fixed costs.

However the decisions made by the Government have made more people more sick they just don't have Covid-19.

[All The Aces]

4 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

All good Mardigras - I hope you did that without the taxpayer pitching in to fund your fixed costs.

However the decisions made by the Government have made more people more sick they just don't have Covid-19.

Last week the Salvation Army dished out 5895 food parcels, a 346% rise on the week before lockdown.

In the last month job seeker numbers have risen by 20% and now stands at 174,630 as at 17 April.

Expect that to climb significantly.   

[mardigras]

11 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

However the decisions made by the Government have made more people more sick they just don't have Covid-19.

They may have made more people sick than otherwise. I'd expect that was part of the overall decision based on the information provided by scientists etc.

Edited April 24, 2020 by mardigras

[mardigras]

Just now, All The Aces said:

Last week the Salvation Army dished out 5895 food parcels, a 346% rise on the week before lockdown.

In the last month job seeker numbers have risen by 20% and now stands at 174,630 as at 17 April.

Expect that to climb significantly.   

As they have (and will) in places all over the world - including those with lesser restrictions. My opinion is that the lockdown has had little overall impact on that - except possibly delayed it even.

[Chief Stipe]

Just now, mardigras said:

They may have made more people sick that otherwise. I'd expect that was part of the overall decision based on the information provided by scientists etc.

No not scientists - but career bureaucrats.  A bit like the 3,000 MPI employees who somehow know how to ride a horse.

Did you know that during 4 weeks of the lockdown 13 people died from Covid-19.  All of them were in the departure lounge pre-Covid-19.  2,688 died in NZ NOT including Covid-19.

Do you know the difference between now and before Covid-19?  Well for 2,688 families (those who couldn't afford storage) they couldn't attend the funerals.

[Chief Stipe]

3 minutes ago, mardigras said:

My opinion is that the lockdown has had little overall impact on that - except possibly delayed it even.

On what data do you base that "opinion"?

[All The Aces]

4 minutes ago, mardigras said:

As they have (and will) in places all over the world - including those with lesser restrictions. My opinion is that the lockdown has had little overall impact on that - except possibly delayed it even.

That's so dumb a statement that you will ever see that your opinion is not even worthy of a reply. Do you ever leave your lounge?    

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, All The Aces said:

That's so dumb a statement that you will ever see that your opinion is not even worthy of a reply. Do you ever leave your lounge?    

When it comes to your views, I prefer being dumb. So thanks.

Are you saying, if there was no lockdown, the economy wouldn't be going to lose all the jobs and all the rest of it. I hope you are not going to say that - it was inevitable. Imagine if we were all going to work, where's the tourism? Where's the hospitality coming from. She'll be right. Sure. Ask Sweden why things are going down the gurgler.

Edited April 24, 2020 by mardigras

[curious]

26 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

However the decisions made by the Government have made more people more sick they just don't have Covid-19.

More sick than what? Covid-19 was always going to leave more people more sick regardless of the government decision making. It's too soon to tell and we can never exactly know but we seem to me to be on track to make the 'more' less than it might otherwise have been. If you had the decision making power, what would you do differently today to improve future outcomes?

Edited April 24, 2020 by curious

[Chief Stipe]

3 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Are you saying, if there was no lockdown, the economy wouldn't be going to lose all the jobs and all the rest of it. I hope you are not going to say that - it was inevitable.

Getting back to racing.  Was the loss of jobs in racing inevitable?  Note:  no jobs lost yet at NZTR, RITA or HRNZ.

[curious]

Just out

NZTR has confirmed with the government that Clubs, Trainers, and training centres can undertake business activities (including importantly racing, training and trialling) under Alert Level 3.

[curious]

Approved protocols have also been released.

[Freda]

You beat me to it....that, at least, is something.

 

[All The Aces]

 24 April 2020 
 
 
NZTR CIRCULAR 2019/20 – No.24   
 
NZTR DIRECTIVE – PROTOCOLS FOR TRAINING, TRIALLING AND RACING UNDER COVID-19 ALERT LEVEL 3 
 
Under Alert Level 3 all businesses that are permitted to resume operations need to have a COVID-19 safety plan that sets out how they’ll operate safely.   
 
NZTR has confirmed with the government that Clubs, Trainers, and training centres can undertake business activities (including importantly racing, training and trialling) under Alert Level 3. 
The attached Directive has been sent to WorkSafe for endorsement of the protocols.  NZTR will advise of any updates that result of the WorkSafe endorsement process. 
The Directive that accompanies this NZTR Circular details measures that Clubs, Trainers and their staff must adhere to and form the minimum measures of a workplace health and safety plan in relation to COVID-19.  Issued as a Directive, the protocols must be adhered to under the Rules of Racing. 
The Directive places a requirement that clubs or Trainers together with their respective staff or racing officials must develop a COVID-19 Control Plan in place to protect all individuals at the workplace or sites where training and racing is conducted.   
 
Employers should prepare and implement their site plans and processes with worker engagement (including worker H&S representation) and participation to ensure that agreed measures are well communicated and embedded in practice.  
 
The Directive has been issued in consultation with the New Zealand Jockeys’ Association, the New Zealand Trainers’ Association, a Racing Club Advisory Group, and the NZ Racecourse Managers Association. 
Clubs, Jockeys, Trainers and staff are expected to work positively and cooperatively to ensure: • the effective implementation of these COVID-19 protocols, and • that the health and safety of workers and other people aren’t put at risk from changes that are made to work arrangements because of this pandemic. 

The protocols contain requirements that include essential materials that Clubs and Trainers may not currently have to hand.  Assistance with the more substantive of these is provided in the Appendix below. 
 
 
 
Martin Burns GM – Welfare & Sustainability 

Appendix: Essential materials 
• NZTR is purchasing 12 non-touch thermometers which will be assigned 3 to each of: North; CD; Upper South & Lower South, to be carried by Stipendiary Stewards to bring to each race or trial meeting.  If clubs or trainers wish to purchase their own thermometer, this link indicates a suitable product that is available for delivery. 
• NZTR will order signage which Stipendiary Stewards can bring to meetings, being: 3x “COVID-19 Entry Screening Point” and a two each of “Temporary Jockey Room” and “Temporary Trainers and Strappers Room”. 
• To ensure that a trainer or owner colours are not worn by more than one rider on a raceday, NZTR will supply 10 additional plain Colours and caps which Stipendiary Stewards can bring to meetings and provide if needed. 
• Whilst clubs and trainers are free to choose supplier and suitable product, if this is proving difficult, NZTR has identified a supplier (https://www.advanceclean.co.nz/) of disinfectant and hand sanitiser and other products.  Clubs (or trainers) may open an account and contact Advance Clean to order and get the products shipped (Account opening form attached).  It is recommended that orders are placed as soon as possible, as due to high demand, there may be some delays in fulfilling orders. 
 
▪ Recommended products are (prices are ex-GST): 
 
• Germshield  While expensive compared with standard disinfectant, this leaves a 24hour residue that organisms can’t survive on (product link). • Bio-Kleen  A standard disinfectant (product link). • Hand and Surface Sanitiser (product link).  Containers or hand pumps would have bought separately (e.g. product link). 
▪ Contact for opening accounts and placing orders with Advance Clean: 
 
 
• For trainers, it will be important that surface disinfectants are used won’t rot or corrode reins and other gear.  While there are likely other suitable products, below are two options: ▪ Shoof – Strike 400 (product link) ▪ F10 (product link)  

 

[mardigras]

18 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

On what data do you base that "opinion"?

Data from countries that haven't gone into lockdown. And common sense. 

We are an international tourism country. The lockdown isn't affecting that. There wouldn't be any. 

And the fear that exists from the virus - would curtail a lot of spending, a lot of hospitality spend and a lot of local tourism. As well as a lot of spending in other areas. Business would struggle.

As I say, common sense. The lockdown may well have saved many, as opposed to the opposite. Of that, we may never know.

On what data do you base yours?

Edited April 24, 2020 by mardigras

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, curious said:

It's too soon to tell and we can never exactly know

Why is it too soon to tell?  There is data out there from December 2019.

What we do know is that 50% of our hospital beds are empty!  What we do know is that pre-Covid-19 a large proportion of the un-occupied beds were booked for a variety of reasons that deferment will lessen the quality of life and may end in death.  

4 minutes ago, curious said:

If you had the decision making power, what would you do differently today to improve future outcomes?

I would have managed each region on a regional basis not a decree for the whole nation.  Why should essential workers such as surgeons, doctors and nurses be sitting at home in lockdown while the police are out stopping people from being on the beach?

I would have triaged surgery on the list (there is a huge backlog) and made sure that it kept happening based on my hospitals capacity.  With most surgeries nowadays you are out of hospital and home very quickly.  If critical Covid-19 cases incoming started increasing then I'd review my capacity.  

Our thinking is being coloured by the USA mess.  New York City has one of the highest population densities in the world.  They have 70,000 homeless people and 4,000 people who live on the street each night.  Primary care in the USA has been stuffed for decades.  Fortunately we have a great primary care system - which we closed down for Covid-19!!!!

[curious]

11 minutes ago, curious said:

Approved protocols have also been released.

 

No.24 - 24-04-2020 - NZTR Circular FY20 - ALERT LEVEL 3 DIRECTIVE.pdf NZTR Directive COVID-19 Alert Level-3 (Training and Racing).pdf NZTR COVID-19 Health Screening Questionnaire.docx

[mardigras]

8 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Our thinking is being coloured by the USA mess.  

That's your opinion. I'd say we modelled our own data. I think the right decision was made. Just my opinion of course.

[Chief Stipe]

5 minutes ago, mardigras said:

That's your opinion. I'd say we modelled our own data. I think the right decision was made. Just my opinion of course.

My opinion is based on my analysis of the data and a few years of working for the MOH.

Sadly I thought you might have been useful in the MOH as I thought you understood how to quantify risk.  But I guess not.

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

My opinion is based on my analysis of the data and a few years of working for the MOH.

My opinion is based on my analysis of the data and many years modelling data.