Covid-19 (ex-Draft Calendar)

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Not the UK.  The UK went from 100 to 100,000 cases in 46 days.  Spain 31.  Italy 35.

 

The death rate for those that have caught Covid-19 in Spain is 10%, Italy 13%, UK 13%.  

I didn't mention how long it took, I mentioned the gradient the UK is at compared to those other two at the same relative point in time currently.

The death rate of Italy includes outside hospitals. The death rate of the UK does not. Ergo, UK death rate higher than Spain's and higher than Italy's.

Edited April 16, 2020 by mardigras

[Chief Stipe]

3 minutes ago, mardigras said:

How's their economy. What sort of job losses did they have in the last week?

Sweden's latest estimate for peak unemployment is 9% up from 7%.  The have increased their Government spending ceiling but haven't borrowed what we have.

[mardigras]

34 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Based on what evidence?  One industry that concerns us all on this forum will do a lot better than our equivalent e.g. the racing industry.

Probably the same level of evidence you have relating to your statement about the relative racing industries. My evidence is from having lived in Australia for a long time and the information I get from my children that still live there - anecdotal. The same evidence you are relying on for your view on the racing industry. 

My view on the racing industry is that ours will be in no worse situation than it was before. Since ours was in the crap already.

[Chief Stipe]

6 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I didn't mention how long it took, I mentioned the gradient the UK is at compared to those other two at the same relative point in time currently.

 

Well I don't know what figures you are looking at but if it took 46 days to get to 100,000 compared to 31 days then surely the UK gradient is flatter!

[aquaman]

11 minutes ago, mardigras said:

So it's just a cold. And you think Bob Jones is on the money.

Can you give us a comparison maybe between NZ and Sweden. Can you tell us how many die in Sweden each year from what is just a cold to most people? Sweden seem to have followed Bob's advice. How's their economy. What sort of job losses did they have in the last week? 

It makes no difference whether the virus is no more than a cold to most people. Doing nothing or doing something was always going to have the same impact on a countries economy. Only the gullible couldn't see that. Clearly you couldn't see that. Nor could Bob.

Shed some light on the impact of this cold to countries that have followed such advice. 

Compare with Sweden
remoteness/accessibility
population density
population age profile
city densities
virus cases
virus deaths
virus serious/critical cases
virus economic impact

Feel free to compare anything else you feel relevant.

And maybe you can tell us how much different what Sweden has done to what Bob suggests in dealing with this cold.

No I cannot be bothered dragging out miles of stats, they mean nothing. I just approach it with something called common sense, and an ability not to believe everything you are told or here. I shall be proved right in time, when this will all be yesterdays news, and people will look back on this hiccup and wonder what the fuss was.

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

Sweden's latest estimate for peak unemployment is 9% up from 7%.  The have increased their Government spending ceiling but haven't borrowed what we have.

Is it. Maybe they need to do a new estimate. I think it is at around 8.9% now. And even with restaurants and bars open - the number of extra jobless over the last week, the largest group was in the hotel and restaurant area. An area of biggest loss where part of that industry was still fully open. As I've said, the economy was always going to be impacted, lock down or not.

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, aquaman said:

No I cannot be bothered dragging out miles of stats, they mean nothing. I just approach it with something called common sense, and an ability not to believe everything you are told or here. I shall be proved right in time, when this will all be yesterdays news, and people will look back on this hiccup and wonder what the fuss was.

So do I. Most regard me as extremely pragmatic. I agree it will be yesterdays news. But my view is the impact to the economy was a given. And it is. And I will be equally proven right on that. And they will all recover as they do.

So since the economy was going to be affected no matter what the government did, then they had a choice. Save lives and have the same economic impact, or not save lives and have the same impact. Pretty simple decision for me.

[mardigras]

6 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

My evidence regarding the racing industry is not anecdotal.  It arises from plain observation and factual information.

Thoroughbred race meetings in Australia tomorrow:  15.  12 TAB, 3 non-TAB.  NZ - Zero.

Betting turnover in Queensland in the first two weeks of the lockdown was up 21% on last year.

Looks like they are doing better than us!

Looks like they are still operating from what you write. And what you write is anecdotal in regards the state of the industry.

But how about the contra. NZ TAB takes betting on all those same events. Higher turnover from NZ (nothing else to bet on). More revenue for NZ TAB. No outgoings on stakes. Better situation. Better industry in the future.

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by mardigras

[mardigras]

16 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Well I don't know what figures you are looking at but if it took 46 days to get to 100,000 compared to 31 days then surely the UK gradient is flatter!

I said the current gradient - at the current point in time. Over the entire period, the gradient is lower, as at this point, relative to the other countries, it is steeper. 

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, mardigras said:

But my view is the impact to the economy was a given.

Not the magnitude nor the fact that certain businesses were impacted unfairly.  The economic relief package and the business lockdowns could have been better targeted.

 

5 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Save lives and have the same economic impact, or not save lives and have the same impact. Pretty simple decision for me.

Save whose lives?  I think society needs to take a big reality check on this.  

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, mardigras said:

as at this point, relative to the other countries, it is steeper. 

What data are you using?

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

Not the magnitude nor the fact that certain businesses were impacted unfairly.  The economic relief package and the business lockdowns could have been better targeted.

Why? My view is that the impact overall would have been largely the same. Some worse, some better, overall the same.

Many people will be better off with the lockdown than otherwise, many will not.

[mardigras]

5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

What data are you using?

My eyes usually. But here is something from Bloomberg.

[Chief Stipe]

7 minutes ago, mardigras said:

My eyes usually. But here is something from Bloomberg.

That graph contradicts your interpretation.

[mardigras]

10 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

That graph contradicts your interpretation.

How so? I can only assume you have confused the UK line with the Iranian one.

Edited April 16, 2020 by mardigras

[Chief Stipe]

BTW the data I'm using are from here:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[mardigras]

15 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

BTW the data I'm using are from here:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

I use the same data. And their data says the same thing. The 'rate' of cases 40 days after achieving 100 cases is higher for the UK than it was for Spain. As is the 'rate' of deaths. Spain achieved their cases quicker, but from a days perspective, they have currently brought that rate down slightly faster. Either way, if it's just a cold, I guess we don't mind.

The issue of gullibility is on both sides. There are those gullible to believe that the virus is worse than it is. Heaps of those. And there are those gullible to believe the impact on the economy due to lockdown is worse than it is. Heaps of those as well.

[aquaman]

UPDATE: Dr. Shi Zhengli Who Ran Coronavirus Research in Wuhan Had US Project Shut Down by DHS in 2014 for Being Too Risky - PRIOR LEAK KILLED RESEARCHER



You replied on Sat 18/04/2020 9:27 AM

prince3

Sat 18/04/2020 3:09 AM

 

 

 

 

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/update-dr-shi-zhengli-ran-coronavirus-research-wuhan-us-project-shut-dhs-2014-risky-prior-leak-killed-researcher/

UPDATE: Dr. Shi Zhengli Who Ran Coronavirus Research in Wuhan Had US Project Shut Down by DHS in 2014 for Being Too Risky - PRIOR LEAK KILLED RESEARCHER - thegatewaypundit.com China’s Dr. Shi Zhengli’s name is finally breaking into the mainstream media reports. On Thursday night Steven Mosher author of “Bully of Asia” joined Tucker Carlson to discuss the latest developments that the coronavirus was spread from a Wuhan lab to the general public. Mosher was one of the first to suggest that COVID-19 was… www.thegatewaypundit.com

Dollars to doughnuts this is how it happened.

 

 

[Chief Stipe]

8 minutes ago, aquaman said:

Dollars to doughnuts this is how it happened.

 

Well if this website and Tucker Carlson are your sources I'm willing to take a bet.  What odds are you offering that it isn't how "it" happened?

[Chief Stipe]

Interesting article here:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11369330/coronavirus-mutated-three-distinct-strains-spread/

Ok "The Sun" is only marginally above Tucker Carlson in credibility but interesting to see that Covid-19 Type A has infected USA and Australia.  However it's impact in Australia is a lot less than USA - is it seasonal?  Plus Type A evolved into Type B in China which targets Asian people more than Type A.

If you want to go to the source of The Sun's information the link is here:

http://www.sci-news.com/medicine/three-variants-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-08313.html

[aquaman]

19 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Interesting article here:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11369330/coronavirus-mutated-three-distinct-strains-spread/

Ok "The Sun" is only marginally above Tucker Carlson in credibility but interesting to see that Covid-19 Type A has infected USA and Australia.  However it's impact in Australia is a lot less than USA - is it seasonal?  Plus Type A evolved into Type B in China which targets Asian people more than Type A.

If you want to go to the source of The Sun's information the link is here:

http://www.sci-news.com/medicine/three-variants-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-08313.html

Yes new about the virus evolving into different strains. Vietnam has been able to identify at least two strains. They new from testing whether it was Chinese origin or European. They tested large amounts of Asians and Europeans and discovered and reported the difference.

[Chief Stipe]

Whether Covid-19 "escaped" from a lab or not is irrelevant.  What is more relevant is was it genetically engineered - there is near universal agreement that it wasn't engineered in a lab.  It's origins are natural.  

It is possible that the parent of the virus was circulating in human population for quite some time.  It had to mutate to become infectious to humans.  It is possible that this mutation or similar ones occurred in geographically dispersed populations at the same time.

There are over 40 species of Coronavirus circulating in the animal and/or human population.  Anyone of which could mutate at any time to become infectious to humans.  There are numerous other types of viruses that are circulating that make the leap from the animal to human populations every year. That phenomena is increasing as our population grows and we expand closer to the wild animal population. 

 It was only a matter of time before we had a pandemic such as the one we are experiencing now.

https://www.newscientist.com/term/coronavirus-come-lab/

 ...downloaded the publicly available sequences of all isolates from NCBI. As of today, there are a handful from China and the US, supposedly sequenced by different facilities in the different countries. All 2019-nCoV sequences are in perfect agreement, save for a few point mutations. These could be sequencing errors or genetic drift.

 

There are no large scale discrepancies. So if the sequences are doctored, both the US and Chinese governments would have to be in collusion, and kept any scientists with integrity of character away from the project. This seems in my mind unlikely. But it's probably a possibility that the truth seeker should remain aware of. If the pandemic spreads much further, DIY isolation and sequencing by individuals would become a realistic option.

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Is_nCoV-2019_bioenginnered_a_weapon_gone_rogue

[Chief Stipe]

Posts from the Gallop Topic "Bernies Blog" that are Covid-19 yarns.

[mardigras]

On 17/04/2020 at 10:46 AM, Chief Stipe said:

Well I don't know what figures you are looking at but if it took 46 days to get to 100,000 compared to 31 days then surely the UK gradient is flatter!

Do you still think the UK is trending better than these others? Deaths (from worldometers). Days are days since 10 deaths.

[aquaman]

Forget the stats, they are all misleading, different governments just make them up to suit their agendas. Sweden will be the model all governments will ultimately follow. They are one of the few countries to get it right. I shall be proved right in time. They are the only country to get the response correct. Stupid NZ followed the Chinese model, which will be proved to be wrong. The only excuse for a total lockdown would be allowing it to run rampant and out of control. NZ stuffed up on the borders, stuffed up on the rest homes, and stuffed up on not preparing field hospitals to accommodate any surges. If these protocols had been followed, then a lockdown was unnecessary.