Thomass Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 15 hours ago, barryb said: Thomass you live in a world of hearsay, jock comments, trainers statements, blinkers, tongue ties, winkers, & a number of other unquantifiable dreams you have. You are living proof that there are some people beyond help in the intelligence stakes and no matter how many times some have tried to help you on a journey you blindly stick to looney theories that match your personality. Its no surprise you are a devout Jacksinda follower, you lack the brains to think intelligently for yourself. Soz Bazza just catching up on the diatribe that 'imbibed' it's way through the ignorance sphere last night When form analysing never use "hearsay, any comments" Correct me if I'm wrong but you said something like "had 50 losing bets in a row once" Great, whatever 'niche' suits you olde sausage and chups... I think you could have an addiction issue or 3 though Gambling, imbibing, chups...really really grumpy when punting and who can't see a RUAKAKA bias when it hits him in the moosh... ...that could be the "intelligent quotient" raring it's ugly head as though... So quite a few issues there...but we're all human and have frailties...some more than others... Cant wait for Cindy to get back next week I bet?? Enjoy it while you can...and just thank da Lord sweet Jesus above...if you're religious That Winnie went with Cindy and we're going to get some actual 'action' for once in the Racing Industry Instead of your lot sitting on their wanking f in hands best brudder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 58 minutes ago, Thomass said: Of course it was NPD...(massaging his ego so he feels better about his appalling arrogance) Pikey " the rail was off...Im glad Lethal got off the rail when he did" NPD " Na Pike was wrong" Get help Yep, if Pike thought the rail was off, that's just his opinion as well. Perhaps ask all the jockeys that were still sticking to the rail why they did that - even when in front and room to move away. Strange. Pike must also know more than them, even though they were riding on it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Actually you made the 'accurate' statement then distorted what you said. Are you related to Trump? The only way you could profit out of my betting is if I lost, I am in profit. I also bet with Crown Bet. As for track conditions, seeing how NZ tracks are crap, I don't rely on what may have been effective. Besides, just because a horse hasn't won in the conditions does not mean it won't in the future. It's meaningless like your waffle. Have a great day, I'm off to do some meaningful stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1 hour ago, mardigras said: The Eagle Farm track that day was fine. I'm talking about the surface to race on. "Things got worse when jockey Kerrin McEvoy was reported to have described it as “the worst track I’ve ever ridden on” after the first race." Yep NPD...the EF track was "fine" that day... Keep taking the meds...or if you ain't on any... NPD is a treatable illness Get some for your alter ego curious too maybe best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 22 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: Actually you made the 'accurate' statement then distorted what you said. Are you related to Trump? The only way you could profit out of my betting is if I lost, I am in profit. I also bet with Crown Bet. As for track conditions, seeing how NZ tracks are crap, I don't rely on what may have been effective. Besides, just because a horse hasn't won in the conditions does not mean it won't in the future. It's meaningless like your waffle. Have a great day, I'm off to do some meaningful stuff. Of course the ten second difference she raced on to her previous was "meaningless" Or 60+ lengths... Keep on travelling spinner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 19 minutes ago, Thomass said: "Things got worse when jockey Kerrin McEvoy was reported to have described it as “the worst track I’ve ever ridden on” after the first race." Yep NPD...the EF track was "fine" that day... Keep taking the meds...or if you ain't on any... NPD is a treatable illness Get some for your alter ego curious too maybe best Yep, and Damien Oliver stuck to the fence in the late races. The track might have been slow, but it was the same across it. Making it a decent surface for punters to bet on. You're just annoyed because you can't win at punting because you adhere to stupid theories. I thought you said you don't listen to hearsay? You've always gone about trainer said this, trainer said that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 raw stats are meaningless Nobby betfair.com.au/hub/better-betting/betsmart-education/wagering-and-fundamentals/misleading-stats-part-1/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: raw stats are meaningless Nobby betfair.com.au/hub/better-betting/betsmart-education/wagering-and-fundamentals/misleading-stats-part-1/ And he is talking about stats about the individual horse, let alone stats about things never tried with the individual horse, such as blinkers on first time. Such stats are a poor approach in my view. But stats that relate to some component that are not directly related to the individual horse are simply flawed. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 1 hour ago, FeelTheFear said: raw stats are meaningless Nobby betfair.com.au/hub/better-betting/betsmart-education/wagering-and-fundamentals/misleading-stats-part-1/ Gee feary I thought you'd gone gambolling.... Interesting two of the first comments re 'fit horses and able to handle track conditions' are noted...2 of my best guidelines to finding value winners "There’s no doubt that many of these factors are important. Horses in good form win most races. Horse’s that lack race fitness or can’t handle the track condition won’t win." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Yep, and Damien Oliver stuck to the fence in the late races. The track might have been slow, but it was the same across it. Making it a decent surface for punters to bet on. You're just annoyed because you can't win at punting because you adhere to stupid theories. I thought you said you don't listen to hearsay? You've always gone about trainer said this, trainer said that. You just keep digging those arrogant holes don't you NPD? Did Damy win like Inness and Pikey...who said the rail was off....and Kerrin who said it was a shit hole...across the track Keep taking the pills son...increase the dose might help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, Thomass said: Gee feary I thought you'd gone gambolling.... Interesting two of the first comments re 'fit horses and able to handle track conditions' are noted...2 of my best guidelines to finding value winners "There’s no doubt that many of these factors are important. Horses in good form win most races. Horse’s that lack race fitness or can’t handle the track condition won’t win." Once again you took it out of context. "There’s no doubt that many of these factors are important. Horses in good form win most races. Horse’s that can’t run the distance or lack race fitness or can’t handle the track condition won’t win. However, the tendency to make these judgements by simply referring to numbers in the form guide can be very misleading and will greatly limit your potential as a punter!" Distance Form 0 Starts – 0 Wins 23395 4270 18.3$ -7.0% 1 Start – 0 Wins 11970 2107 17.6% -5.8% 2 Starts – 0 Wins 6130 1016 16.6% -5.9% 3+ Starts – 0 Wins 7212 1144 15.9% -3.3% Previous Wins at Distance 1 Start – 1 Win 4798 1016 21.2% -5.5% 2 Starts – 1 or 2 Wins 5288 1010 19.1% -6.6% 3+ Starts 1 or 2 Wins 18668 3061 16.4% -6.4% 3+ Starts – 3+ Wins 6414 1055 16.4% -11.6% ...and so it goes. No real value in whether a horse has started over a distance and won or lost. Keep it up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 20 minutes ago, Thomass said: Did Damy win like Inness and Pikey...who said the rail was off....and Kerrin who said it was a shit hole...across the track 23 minutes ago, Thomass said: Interesting two of the first comments re 'fit horses and able to handle track conditions' are noted...2 of my best guidelines to finding value winners Only one digging holes is you. Are you now suggesting that the jockeys that ride there all day didn't realise the entire day what you're saying? Not to mention horses on the rail winning during the day. You clearly didn't use what your claimed guidelines are when trying to find the winners at Eagle Farm that day. Since they were obvious if you had. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 No the quote was an emphatic WONT win I don't worry about distance btw...I trust the trainer to know what's best The more I read this betfart stuff the more I think they've been reading my mail though... "watch out for horses racing in better class now back a class" nowwww....wtf have I heard that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 18 minutes ago, Thomass said: "watch out for horses racing in better class now back a class" nowwww....wtf have I heard that? I could argue that's correct but I wouldn't agree that necessarily has anything to do with the "class" of the race, e.g. black type cf. R65. It has to do with the relative performance of horses in one race cf. the next. It's the same type of error to suggest that because it is a black type race, it is a better "class" race than a non-black type one. You need to judge that by the performance of the horse in any given race, not by the title of the race or its status. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Curious, it is so funny. The guy just can't learn anything. It's the same type of problem referring to horse track stats, track condition stats. There is no performance component to them. This thread is one of the funniest. And he keeps coming back for more. Whilst a number of horses racing in higher class races and then returning to low grade may well do ok, it is because of performance, not race class. Firebird Flyer is the perfect example that Thomass fell for, 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wally Posted July 27, 2018 Author Share Posted July 27, 2018 Just now, mardigras said: Curious, it is so funny. The guy just can't learn anything. It's the same type of problem referring to horse track stats, track condition stats. There is no performance component to them. This thread is one of the funniest. And he keeps coming back for more. Whilst a number of horses racing in higher class races and then returning to low grade may well do ok, it is because of performance, not race class. Firebird Flyer is the perfect example that Thomass fell for, 100% im quite enjoying it keep up the good work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 32 minutes ago, curious said: I could argue that's correct but I wouldn't agree that necessarily has anything to do with the "class" of the race, e.g. black type cf. R65. It has to do with the relative performance of horses in one race cf. the next. It's the same type of error to suggest that because it is a black type race, it is a better "class" race than a non-black type one. You need to judge that by the performance of the horse in any given race, not by the title of the race or its status. As your bff says...l"generally" And as this article says...Black Type races/better class are generally run faster and with more pressure... ...that's why I'm on neddys who I believe to be within 0.3 secs of the winner in superior class races...I simply can't be bothered seeking every single sectional available to man... ..when I know superior races are almost always won in superior times Seriously all of these articles could have been written by moi...Its scary... fresh legs, superior class, don't worry about draws etc.....All MOI's punting skills 4. CLASS FOR TODAY’S RACE The most important part of your analysis is to classify the horse’s inherent class / ability in relation to today’s race. On the evidence available make an assessment of whether the horse is: Capable of handling stronger class than this race (has won or been consistently competitive in higher class races) Equal to the class of this race (has won or been consistently competitive in similar races) Yet to be proven but should (or could) be up to this class. Yet to be proven but is unlikely to be up to this class Definitely outclassed. Horses that are not up to the class of today’s race rarely win and can be quickly eliminated from further consideration. Those that are up to the class of today’s race (or better) can be considered contenders, subject to further analysis on factors such as fitness, recent form, distance, position in running etc. Always be on the lookout for lightly raced, talented horses that are up in class, but look like they could eventually reach a better class than today’s race. They might still be well found in the market, but if they have positive traits in their form and positive characteristics for today’s race then they are usually still good betting prospects that are somewhat undervalued by the market. One final word of advice; be cautious about believing everything you read, watch or listen to about horses and their supposed level of talent. Learn to make your own assessments by looking at key indicators such as the quality of opposition a horse defeats, how easily they do it, the quality of their times & sectionals, strength and speed in the run to the line and other traits that you objectively assess yourself. With experience you’ll avoid falling into horses that are overhyped in the market and gain good value by identifying others that are flying under the public radar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: Curious, it is so funny. The guy just can't learn anything. It's the same type of problem referring to horse track stats, track condition stats. There is no performance component to them. This thread is one of the funniest. And he keeps coming back for more. Whilst a number of horses racing in higher class races and then returning to low grade may well do ok, it is because of performance, not race class. Firebird Flyer is the perfect example that Thomass fell for, 100% Time for your arvo pills Narso... Ive got Pikeys, Wheelers and Kerrins numbers if you want to ring them Mr. Arrogant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, wally said: im quite enjoying it keep up the good work I'm wearly wearly disappointed in you Wals Being a young ignoramus I thought I could turn you before you got on the backs of a bunch of sycophants who believe they know more than Industry luminaries Maybe if I give you Wheeler and Pikeys number you could ring them and ask who could be right ...The Psyco nutbar Rid...or them...up to you... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 19 minutes ago, wally said: im quite enjoying it keep up the good work Might have to make it PPV if you keep liking it Wally. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Guess the smoke and mirrors fella missed this. Class needs to be defined race by race and individual by individual. "One final word of advice; be cautious about believing everything you read, watch or listen to about horses and their supposed level of talent. Learn to make your own assessments by looking at key indicators such as the quality of opposition a horse defeats, how easily they do it, the quality of their times & sectionals, strength and speed in the run to the line and other traits that you objectively assess yourself. With experience you’ll avoid falling into horses that are overhyped in the market and gain good value by identifying others that are flying under the public radar." This should be good Wally... I'm always ready to learn, I'm on the Curious side of analysis but that's me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Thomass said: I'm wearly wearly disappointed in you Wals Being a young ignoramus I thought I could turn you before you got on the backs of a bunch of sycophants who believe they know more than Industry luminaries Maybe if I give you Wheeler and Pikeys number you could ring them and ask who could be right ...The Psyco nutbar Rid...or them...up to you... Industry luminaries? I thought we were talking about punting, not training horses. Do you think there is any reason why they train horses and not just punt them? I don't question their training ability, but you seem to think that means they have punting ability. How do you think they would go at punting if they didn't have horses to train? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Hadn't bothered looking at this string until now... You lot are getting as nasty with each other as that brother of mine over on the dark side. Not quite as poisonous as him but just as nasty Can't you just play nicely in the sandpit? One of the principal reasons(I believe) CS started BOAY is to avoid all the put downs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wally Posted July 27, 2018 Author Share Posted July 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Reefton said: Hadn't bothered looking at this string until now... You lot are getting as nasty with each other as that brother of mine over on the dark side. Not quite as poisonous as him but just as nasty Can't you just play nicely in the sandpit? One of the principal reasons(I believe) CS started BOAY is to avoid all the put downs its only humour no ones getting nasty im sure tommy is loving it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Thomass said: Time for your arvo pills Narso... Ive got Pikeys, Wheelers and Kerrins numbers if you want to ring them Mr. Arrogant Why would we ring them? If they could make a living punting, surely they wouldn't be out there at 3 a.m. till after dark risking their lives on or about 500kg animals and picking up shit. If I want training advice I'll ring them. If I want punting advice, I'll ring mardigras or barryb. You've got this dead wrong too. No wonder your punting is crap and you can't post a winner till after the race. Edited July 27, 2018 by curious 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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