Newmarket Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 Dont forget, curious and mardigras are same person. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 2 hours ago, Thomass said: But this is relly relly enlightening curios So does a "definite winning advantage" translate to neddys going faster with said hoods or not...seeing as you said "prove they make them go faster" Don't know. You'd have to compare the winning percentage of those first time in blinkers with the same horses the start before; or somehow show that the blinkers performance was better than the horses's previous best without blinkers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murray Fish Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 2 hours ago, Newmarket said: Dont forget, curious and mardigras are same person. what odd$ are you offering on that! ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 3 hours ago, Murray Fish said: what odd$ are you offering on that! ? Good thing you didn't ask Thommo that MF. He'd want you to wait until the result was provided, then put up the odds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkyMark Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 8 hours ago, Thomass said: Don't tell me this'll be the first time you disagree with your BFF?? Its in writing!! And this would include all of the no hopers who were on 'last chance saloon' stays as well?.. Doesnt even take into account observing a needy's need...by 'observing'...wtf knew that could be done? And the stunning but simple process to be had with moi's adding 20% to already superior form neddys...after basic form analysis...read PERFORMANCE ..after I've trusted the trainers that a neddy will GO FASTER with them on... Its great to be finally vindicated by the 'intellectual' university Professor though... for the benefit of my understanding, you suggest that blinkers on first time would increase chances of winning by "x" percentage, when you come to the conclusion of this percentage, how do you consider variables such as whether the horse might over race or not with blinkers on? or how to you factor in these variables when determining your percentage that blinkers would improve horses chances? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 1 hour ago, MarkyMark said: for the benefit of my understanding, you suggest that blinkers on first time would increase chances of winning by "x" percentage, when you come to the conclusion of this percentage, how do you consider variables such as whether the horse might over race or not with blinkers on? or how to you factor in these variables when determining your percentage that blinkers would improve horses chances? he factors them in after the race once he knows which ones won. Very successful. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 14 hours ago, MarkyMark said: for the benefit of my understanding, you suggest that blinkers on first time would increase chances of winning by "x" percentage, when you come to the conclusion of this percentage, how do you consider variables such as whether the horse might over race or not with blinkers on? or how to you factor in these variables when determining your percentage that blinkers would improve horses chances? Good question...but very simply answered Mork After I've selected a neddy that meets my requirements to invest...i.e. Superior class back to inferior as one of moi's niches I trust the trainer, that this already superior form horse, would have been observed in either training or race day that THE MOST PRIZED GEAR GO FAST... ...will help said neddy... Its that simple... in the unlikely case of the trusted trainer being wrong...I've lost an extra 20% of the usual stake no biggy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkyMark Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 3 hours ago, Thomass said: Good question...but very simply answered Mork After I've selected a neddy that meets my requirements to invest...i.e. Superior class back to inferior as one of moi's niches I trust the trainer, that this already superior form horse, would have been observed in either training or race day that THE MOST PRIZED GEAR GO FAST... ...will help said neddy... Its that simple... in the unlikely case of the trusted trainer being wrong...I've lost an extra 20% of the usual stake no biggy so presumably, with saying that, you have the advantage of getting information from the trainer directly to assess runners chance? And your way of punting is selecting runners who are dropping back a rating band? or you wait for horses you "believe" have superior class, then wait for them to enter a rating band in which you think they would be competitive? if you dont wish to answer, no worries, just im trying to understand your theory towards punting, and how you determine a percentage in assessing horses chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Not at all..welcome the debate and observing what others get up to Essentially it's Black Type form I'm looking for...back to inferior class...and when I assess that I'm endeavouring to get a horse up to within 0.3 - 0.4 seconds of the winner...or close to the placegetters if an impressive winner ...that includes adding on time for unlucky runs, drawing wide, unsuitable tracks, caught wide/in the open as extra....etc. e.g RIDEITLIKEYOUFINSTOLEIT recently... 3 average runs an unsuitable H tracks...previous to that had run @ 5L behind LFE at G 3 level weights Normally being a trail horse, she had to snag back from a wide draw and lost @ 0.3-4 secs..@2 1/2L according to the system I use.. ...ran on well in the straight Now back to an R 75... Added extra investment units for having a 2kg allowance as well... If she was to have Blinkers added..I simply trust the trainer that's what was needed after he's assessed her suitability with them in training...which is required...add 20% to the stake So in 2yo and 3Yo Black Type I'm mainly looking for 0-1 win horses back to Rating band class...in other words Fresh young legs with few convictions... ...in Open Black Type...again fresh younger legs generally coming through the classes... ...Younger horses like this often start off the minimum...so can also be confidently backed in these Black Type races...after showing they're up to this class... I'll also look for Maiden/ 1win horses racing against higher rated horses...Spec. Maidens etc...these Premier days have a better class of horse racing in bigger fields... More can go wrong then and if using the above system of excuses, can be confidently backed in weaker mid week meetings as well... I also watch for horses coming back from overseas with good form...HK/Aus form is superior to here...likewise Northern form to the Sth Is obviously Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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