Brodie Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Why do the Bookies open up the Fixed Odds so short? I would love to know how much money is invested early on nowadays on the Fixed Odds for harness! I would’ve thought that to make money for the TAB that you would be encouraging punters to actually put money on the Fixed Odds rather than put punters off with unattractive odds. I appreciate that they are not there to lose money but how on earth do they expect investments when the opening odds are well under what they should be. The Bookies need to be moving Odds out far earlier than just before the race is due to be run as they will be missing out on plenty of dollars. They won’t get a hiding as when someone has a sizeable bet, they slash the odds anyway. Maybe they don’t want harness turnover and rely on sports for their profit???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Mmmm! Me thinks I have heard this topic discussed before somewhere but can not remember where!? Have you got any examples or will you pull out the usual (no every horse is too short) quotes! Every time I check the odds seem to open around 128% to 135% and close at around 122% for most races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 9 hours ago, Nowornever said: Have you got any examples or will you pull out the usual (no every horse is too short) quotes! Every time I check the odds seem to open around 128% to 135% and close at around 122% for most races. They are generally rubbish. If you look at the FF Racing Beta odds, there are horses whose odds go out after opening for no reason at all. It is just because they are so tight that no one will bet on them. Then it is like they try to entice you by lengthening them a little. For example, look at race 1 at Timaru today, 8 horses have lengthened for no reason at all as no horse has moved in on FF. 4 horses are shown in green as drifting and the other 4 are not. Mr Midnight is favourite at 2 90FF?? What is the logic by the TAB? I think they are just scared and then lengthen once they know they are not going to get hit. It makes no sense at all to bet early unless you are 100% sure you are onto something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 (edited) 9 hours ago, Nowornever said: Mmmm! Me thinks I have heard this topic discussed before somewhere but can not remember where!? Have you got any examples or will you pull out the usual (no every horse is too short) quotes! Every time I check the odds seem to open around 128% to 135% and close at around 122% for most races. Yes has been discussed before but never answered correctly. you obviously don’t check them on opening then!,,,, Place odds are about 138% on opening which is ridiculous wish they were opened at 128% would be far fairer Edited June 30, 2018 by Brodie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Simple rule of thumb: If the horse you like is too short on opening then wait until it drifts and clean up. If it stays the same price or moves in further then the TAB have got the price right on opening and there is little you can do about it. I would like Lazarus to open at 15s in the NZ cup too but it is not going to happen I am thinking. Agree the place odds open too short nowadays but I imagine they do that just to piss Brodie off. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 51 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said: They are generally rubbish. If you look at the FF Racing Beta odds, there are horses whose odds go out after opening for no reason at all. It is just because they are so tight that no one will bet on them. Then it is like they try to entice you by lengthening them a little. For example, look at race 1 at Timaru today, 8 horses have lengthened for no reason at all as no horse has moved in on FF. 4 horses are shown in green as drifting and the other 4 are not. Mr Midnight is favourite at 2 90FF?? What is the logic by the TAB? I think they are just scared and then lengthen once they know they are not going to get hit. It makes no sense at all to bet early unless you are 100% sure you are onto something. Thats the way the fixed odds work! They will be getting pummeled on Mr Midnight and drifting all the others to attract some money and even up the books. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Nowornever said: Thats the way the fixed odds work! They will be getting pummeled on Mr Midnight and drifting all the others to attract some money and even up the books. Agreed. Do you agree the TAB have no balls and they are not real bookies as they do not back their judgment on horses and entice people in due to their thriftiness? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Yes looks like it is a numbers game now, and profit comes at the expense of the spirit of bookmaking in years gone by. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Nowornever said: profit comes at the expense of the spirit of bookmaking And that is the answer for you, Brodie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 27 minutes ago, Nowornever said: Simple rule of thumb: If the horse you like is too short on opening then wait until it drifts and clean up. If it stays the same price or moves in further then the TAB have got the price right on opening and there is little you can do about it. I would like Lazarus to open at 15s in the NZ cup too but it is not going to happen I am thinking. Agree the place odds open too short nowadays but I imagine they do that just to piss Brodie off. Does it piss Brodie off ? Not anymore as It is actually costing the racing industry a helluva more than it is costing me. Thing is that their business plan is so flawed and they can’t see it They need to attract money to go on rather than put punters off which is what they are doing The TAB are far too interested in yield rather than turnover By restricting punters and poor odds has a detrimental affect on turnover and ultimately profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Just now, Happy Sunrise said: And that is the answer for you, Brodie. The spirit of bookmaking ended with the corporate bookies in the UK several years ago and over the last 4-5 years has slowly permeated to firstly Aussie and now NZ. You are lucky if you can get get $5 on a horse in the UK now I hear. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brodie said: Does it piss Brodie off ? Not anymore as It is actually costing the racing industry a helluva more than it is costing me. Thing is that their business plan is so flawed and they can’t see it They need to attract money to go on rather than put punters off which is what they are doing The TAB are far too interested in yield rather than turnover By restricting punters and poor odds has a detrimental affect on turnover and ultimately profit It might be flawed but the truth is racing turnover in general is on the decline so the only way the guys on the big salaries can justify keeping their jobs is to copy the risk management style of overseas bookies to get the yield up in the face of dropping turnover. All I see for winning punters is lower restrictions coming or total bans all together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 59 minutes ago, Nowornever said: Simple rule of thumb: If the horse you like is too short on opening then wait until it drifts and clean up. If it stays the same price or moves in further then the TAB have got the price right on opening and there is little you can do about it. I would like Lazarus to open at 15s in the NZ cup too but it is not going to happen I am thinking. Agree the place odds open too short nowadays but I imagine they do that just to piss Brodie off. I will give you 15s this year. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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