curious Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 And again for Del Mar, R1 is reported as abandoned. R2, an hour away shows a win pool of a massive $16, and there are no FOs available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 20, 2018 Author Share Posted August 20, 2018 On 13/08/2018 at 6:23 AM, mardigras said: Normally 24 runners will accept for this race. In the NZ TAB market, you only have to go down the top 25 and you've already reached 100% market perc. As a betting organisation, they are woefully out of touch. What a betting agency NZ has. Now the top 24 in their market is over 100% market percentage. And people on here wonder why NZ punters are supposedly deserting the NZ TAB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 20, 2018 Author Share Posted August 20, 2018 Interesting to hear talk of trainers/connections referring to the weight their horse is going to get in the Melbourne Cup this year. So there is talk of a provisional allotted weight. If this pans out, then I hope any potential runner would be afforded the same courtesy. Seems odd to me given the likes of Torcedor have mentioned 56kg and Withhold 52kg. And that the provisional weight is based on their international rating supposedly. It certainly isn't based on the difference between the two in BHA ratings since there is 12 points between the two. And I'm yet to see a horse with a BHA rating of 107 receive the mentioned 52+kg that has been mentioned for Withhold. They will be mightily pissed off if the weight they get has them in the doubtful range without another run - since they have stated they plan to race next in the cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 30, 2018 Author Share Posted August 30, 2018 Melbourne Cup noms at 183 this year, a big increase of 43 from last year and the biggest number since they shifted the nom date back a month. Plenty of NH interest as well. As always, a brilliant event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 My favourite race Before Betfair and the corporates this was one race I could unload on knowing I could get a decent collect if successful I used to hear many people tell me this race was a lottery anything can win I disagreed, before NH you could do the form on the race 24 runners half the field wouldn’t get the 2 mile You would scratch the horse that drew gate 18 any horse that wasn’t 4, 5, or 6 years of age would be eliminated as a winning chance You would then be left with track conditions this would leave you with 4 to 5 chances The Caulfield Cup Geelong Cup became the form race that you put a lot of emphasis on along with the NZ stayers things used to be quite straight forward Then along came Dermie and Vintage Crop and things changed The Ebor form has been very solid formline of late, but as a student of Australian form I now find this race difficult I haven’t put the effort into the UK form and have paid the price for a number of years This year will be different as an exotic punter on the Cup I will have to put the time into several UK replays The Cup as Mardi so rightly states it’s not a race it’s an event Saturday they have the barrier draw shown live then interview most trainers connections it’s just brilliant Nick Williams will be able to make a case for all of team Williams runners just adds to the puzzle Look forward to your input on the UK brigade Mardi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mooncoin Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 So what will be the surface choice for these new tracks?Will all 3 be the same or will they mix it up depending on location,weather etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 (edited) On 30/08/2018 at 6:55 PM, Ghost said: The Ebor form has been very solid formline of late, but as a student of Australian form I now find this race difficult I haven’t put the effort into the UK form and have paid the price for a number of years Yes, the Ebor has become a stronger race. Better fields and even the odd non-handicap type runs in it. This years winner, Muntahaa, definitely has ability and if he would be my option at the current odds (around 44-50s). If you watch the Ebor, you could see many furlongs out how he was going. And it didn't change. Maybe Thomass should ask how many lengths extra he covered than the rest of the field. They made excuses for some that copped some trouble (such as Stratum), but he wouldn't have got close to the winner in my view. Easily makes the field based on the weight he will get next week. If his mind is on the job, I quite like him. I backed Heartbreak City in the cup following his Ebor win and he didn't make it - but went very close. Edited September 7, 2018 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 How good is Enable, seriously impressive on the AW at Kempton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 Weights for the cup released today - and along the lines of what I was hinting at, the handicapper has thrown Withhold a life-line. It is sad actually. To think that the Aus handicapper knows the horses better than where they have been racing - and in a jurisdiction where handicapping is so far ahead of the Australian system. Which of these seems to stand out? Horse Rating Weight Muntahaa 115 55.5 Prince Of Arran 111 53.0 Game Starter 110 52.0 Prize Money 109 52.5 Dal Harraild 108 52.5 Mustajeer 108 52.5 Yucatan 108 52.0 Withhold 107 53.0 Thomas Hobson 107 52.0 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 21, 2018 Author Share Posted September 21, 2018 The internationals in quarantine currently would be one of the bigger lists in a while I think. And this doesn't include any targeting just the cup. Not all may actually come over, but a number are down for staying with local trainers. Racing Victoria has provided the following list of the spring raiders in quarantine in England: • Benbatl (Saeed bin Suroor) • Best Solution (Saeed bin Suroor) • Prizemoney (Saeed bin Suroor) • Comicas (Charlie Appleby) • Cross Counter (Charlie Appleby) • Emotionless (Charlie Appleby) • Hamada (Charlie Appleby) • Count Octave (Andrew Balding) • Duretto (Andrew Balding) • Red Verdon (Ed Dunlop) • Prince Of Arran (Charlie Fellowes) • Withhold (Roger Charlton) • Dal Harraild (Ciaron Maher and David Eustace) • Pharrell (Ciaron Maher and David Eustace) • Langley (Darren Weir) • Casterton (Chris Waller) • Finche (Chris Waller) • Shraaoh (Chris Waller) • Gustavus Vassa (Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig) • Marathon Man (Mike Moroney) • Sound Check (Mike Moroney) • Danon Distance (Trainer to be advised) Following is a list of the horses in quarantine in Ireland: • Cliffs Of Moher (Aidan O’Brien) • Fleet Review (Aidan O’Brien) • Intelligence Cross (Aidan O’Brien) • Spirit of Valor (Aidan O’Brien) • Yucatan (Aidan O’Brien) Following is a list of the horses that are scheduled to enter quarantine in Japan on Friday: • Chestnut Coat (Yoshito Yahagi) • Sole Impact (Hirofuma Toda) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 23, 2018 Author Share Posted September 23, 2018 (edited) I wouldn't risk this horse in the cup. He might still win it. But slow ground or not, that was horrendous. Of course one run doesn't rule him out. And after travelling down to Australia, too many risk factors for me. (from RacingUK) Melbourne Cup contender Torcedor disappoints on German debut Sun 23 Sep 2018 Torcedor’s main objective remains the Melbourne Cup despite making a disappointing start for his new connections in Germany on Sunday. The top-class stayer trailed home last of seven runners in the Preis Von Europa at Cologne on what was his first appearance since joining Andreas Wohler. The six-year-old had enjoyed an excellent season for Jessica Harrington, winning the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot in May before being placed behind the John Gosden-trained Stradivarius in both the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot and the Goodwood Cup. However, he left Harrington’s yard for the final time last month after his New Zealand-based owners Te Akau Racing revealed that Torcedor had been sold for a “significant seven-figure sum”. Carrying the colours of the 2014 Melbourne Cup hero Protectionist, Wohler’s new recruit was sent off favourite for the mile-and-a-half Group One contest, with Jamie Spencer taking the ride. Torcedor raced in midfield for much of the way, but was being pushed along rounding the home turn and he ultimately folded tamely in the ultra-testing conditions. Wohler said: “The ground is horrible and he didn’t like it all. He was beaten after about a furlong, I think. “Jamie said he ran on soft ground last year, but soft ground is very different to the horrid ground we had here today. “That (Melbourne Cup) is still the plan. He has to go into quarantine next week. “I think he will probably go straight to the Melbourne Cup and Jamie will ride him. That is why he came to ride him today.” Edited September 23, 2018 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 27, 2018 Author Share Posted September 27, 2018 Either Torcedor is no longer coming - or if he is, you can back him at 80s now. Has been a big drifter on betfair after still trading around high 20s, early 30s after last race. Mind you 80s might be a bit short even if he still comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 28, 2018 Author Share Posted September 28, 2018 As suspected, Torcedor not coming now. Not in quarantine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gee Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 On 28/09/2018 at 12:23 PM, mardigras said: As suspected, Torcedor not coming now. Not in quarantine. had a high temp 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 1 hour ago, gee said: had a high temp Yes. Still, the list in quarantine is a decent one if they all make it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 (edited) My top 3 for the cup this year as at today are Muntahaa, Rostropovich and then Best Solution. The old fav, Withhold, I'd be prepared to bet that he will not be the favourite on the day - not even top 3 in my view. Edited October 2, 2018 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gee Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 2 hours ago, mardigras said: Yes. Still, the list in quarantine is a decent one if they all make it. nope not coming down at all, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, gee said: nope not coming down at all, Yeah sorry gee, I knew that. I was referring to those that are in quarantine. I would never have backed Torcedor even if he came and was in the race. He was always a lay for me - based on what I'd said earlier in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 6, 2018 Author Share Posted October 6, 2018 The Bart Cummings has highlighted the dearth of staying talent bred in NZ/Australia. The first two were simply superior. What I would be wary of is anyone backing the horse Yogi to win the cup at the ridiculous odds on offer. He's probably 50-1 to make the field and to do so, will almost definitely have to win an exempt race like the Lexus. A weight penalty from something else would likely leave him out. The TABs have him at $26. Plain stupid odds. Not saying he couldn't win, although I seriously doubt he could. IMO, those odds are crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 No real surprises to me after the first acceptances for the cup. Couple of concern horses with both Emotionless and Sir Charles Road suffering setbacks - but still in the list. One horse that was heavily backed, Orderofthegarter not in the list which was pretty obvious given he nom'd for the Turnbull and didn't accept with no other noms either. And Grunt who was probably never a major player out from the big events. Be interesting to see how thing splay out. Usually at this time, there aren't questionable runners. This year, the likes of Withhold is still down as low as 37. With 85 first acceptances, around 30 higher than last year at same time, the top end of the field hasn't fallen away anywhere near like it has in past years. I wonder whether some that planned to go to straight to the cup might be looking at the Lexus now. If the field holds up, I would say it will be the best rated cup field by a mile (compared to other potential fields at this same stage). Far more quality horses, group performers and high quality handicappers than in previous editions in my view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 I agree. It looks like being an all-time or at least recent all-time quality field. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 42 minutes ago, curious said: I agree. It looks like being an all-time or at least recent all-time quality field. Yes, I hope it holds up. I'll be there and at this stage I'm certainly sticking with the ones I mentioned earlier in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 13, 2018 Author Share Posted October 13, 2018 Now is usually around the time we hear of the unfortunate situations. Godolphin have had the misfortune to have Hamada injured in trackwork this morning. And with Appleby's Emotionless also injured earlier, things haven't gone well so far for the yard. Hope Hamada is all OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 13, 2018 Author Share Posted October 13, 2018 Sadly Hamada was euthanised this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chestnut Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Benbatl looked dominant today whilst just doing enough .. great form to be progessing with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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