mardigras Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 I see Withhold won the Northumberland Plate overnight. On the AWT. Good to see the they didn't use the track as a training ground. First up for over 8 months in a race over 2 miles long. And now an AWT winner is the favourite for this years Melbourne Cup in many markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Led all the way and bolted in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freda Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 (edited) Now that is good conditioning. Edited June 30, 2018 by Freda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 (edited) 5 hours ago, Freda said: Now that is good conditioning. True, but pretty common up there at all levels. 40 years ago now but I remember Vincent bringing Alleged back to win the Arc in the autumn after going shin sore in the spring. One lead up run over 1 1/4m at Longchamp where he smashed the course record. Mind you there were quite a few "derbys" run on those all weather gallops at Ballydoyle back then. Probably still are. Edited July 1, 2018 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 1, 2018 Author Share Posted July 1, 2018 Won the Cesarewitch start before. Qualified for the cup and they've said that race is the target. Depending on rating change, may still have to win another race before hand or hope Carpenter gives him enough weight. Rating is still well below what would get him in race and even after adjustment for this win, might still only be on the 50 - 51 mark in cup weights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 I see they are indicating they may not race again before the cup. With a UK rating of 107 after its last start, I'd be thinking there is a decent chance he wouldn't make the field off that. Horses with higher ratings than that have not even managed to get 51kg so Carpenter would have to give the horse favours to get him a start. 3 years ago, horses on 107 got 51 and 50. Two years ago, 2 horses on 109 got 51. Last year a horse on 107 got 51 and a horse on 109 got 50.5. 51 is definitely not guaranteed a start. I wouldn't touch him either way. But certainly not as the clear current favourite. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Rekindled and Johannes Vermeer are unlikely runners in the cup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 Pinot highly unlikely also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 6 hours ago, Ghost said: Rekindled and Johannes Vermeer are unlikely runners in the cup Surely Lloyd Williams would be demanding Rekindled return? In fact I am surprised he let him leave Australia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Reefton said: Surely Lloyd Williams would be demanding Rekindled return? In fact I am surprised he let him leave Australia. I don't think he ever left. And it is Lloyd Williams saying the two of them are unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, Reefton said: Surely Lloyd Williams would be demanding Rekindled return? They ran first and second Williams loves the cup like no other, my mail is both will be aimed at WFA Which makes me think he must have a couple of very promising stayers in the pipeline he rarely is without a runner in the cup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 They have a bunch of new imports. They also have Latrobe who they haven't completely ruled out, although would have a big question mark. And Nick Williams has basically said Almandin will not be starting a prep for the cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Yip I wouldn’t be surprised if they have 2,3,4,5, runners As you stated Lloyd said they were unlikely The Williams factor holds heavy weight when assessing the form When you’re not considering running the quinella from last year you would think there’d be quietly maybe not quietly probably very confident one two or three of there imports can do the job I listened to Andrew Bensley interview Lloyd the day after the cup last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Also one needs to do there own form listening to Nick Williams and they’ll all cross the line together 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 12 hours ago, mardigras said: I don't think he ever left. And it is Lloyd Williams saying the two of them are unlikely. Oh sorry - I don't keep up with who says what in international racing. If he is still in Aus why wouldn't they have aimed him somewhere last Autumn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Reefton said: Oh sorry - I don't keep up with who says what in international racing. If he is still in Aus why wouldn't they have aimed him somewhere last Autumn? I understand they had planned to target Autumn races, but didn't go ahead. Maybe needed a longer break. Not sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Rekindling likely aimed at the Emirates formerly McKinnon Johannes Vermeer Caulfield Cup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 9, 2018 Author Share Posted August 9, 2018 On 23/07/2018 at 2:49 PM, Ghost said: Rekindled and Johannes Vermeer are unlikely runners in the cup Somewhat further confirmed that though they weren't planning on targeting the race, they have both had setbacks - so Cup a no go if reports are to be believed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/melbourne-cup-rematch-between-rekindling-and-johannes-vermeer-not-part-of-lloyds-spring-plans/news-story/42d3f19b431a0afcce092b81db1bca04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 9, 2018 Author Share Posted August 9, 2018 45 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/melbourne-cup-rematch-between-rekindling-and-johannes-vermeer-not-part-of-lloyds-spring-plans/news-story/42d3f19b431a0afcce092b81db1bca04 Yes FtF, but since then, they are both under a cloud. No WFA engagements for either for mid/late spring and both reported as suffering setbacks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 32 minutes ago, mardigras said: Yes FtF, but since then, they are both under a cloud. No WFA engagements for either for mid/late spring and both reported as suffering setbacks. true M., I saw mentioned that they hadn't started since so thought I would throw up the whole piece to confuse plus I wondered if blinkers would give them a miraculous recovery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted August 10, 2018 Share Posted August 10, 2018 16 hours ago, mardigras said: Somewhat further confirmed that though they weren't planning on targeting the race, they have both had setbacks - so Cup a no go if reports are to be believed 3 interesting runners from the stable Sir Edwin Landseer Killimanjaro Crocodile Rock all run Saturday Considering Williams has won 50% of the past 6 Melbourne cups you sit back and take notice I would be expecting one of the latter two to be winning Saturday to lift their ratings You would think Latrobe isn’t coming 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 10, 2018 Author Share Posted August 10, 2018 I did read that O'Brien was reasonably keen to bring Latrobe out. Got a Cox Plate nom as well which maybe a little odd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 12, 2018 Author Share Posted August 12, 2018 The NZ TAB has pre nom Cup odds available. If you can call them that. Normally 24 runners will accept for this race. In the NZ TAB market, you only have to go down the top 25 and you've already reached 100% market perc. As a betting organisation, they are woefully out of touch. Even though they offer refunds if not nominated. Why have horses there that won't be. Call To Mind has been retired. If they want to actually encourage punters to have a bet, why not actually put up odds that suggest that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.