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Bit Of A Yarn

Multi deduction of 43% for one late scratching


Turny

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Had a 5 horse win and place multi in last 5 races sunshine coast yesterday - got the place multi with all 5 but late scratching in race 8 and payout cut from $108 to $64. Got 4 of the 5 in the win multi which for 5 was $1535 but for the 4 + last 4 races+ got $110 - TAB saying late scratching slashed the payout

Anyone met this - seems massive deductions for one late scratching

 

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They have it so wrong - they are investigating but not holding my breath - my win multi was  1535 - if Tarzan had if won my payout for all 5 would have been $900 with the 43% deduction - on an $18 late scratching - no f'en way - met this before but not this bad - will keep you posted

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Mathematical impossibility

Say you multiplied up your other 4 successful place FF prices, and got to $72, then used $1.50(I'm assuming you took Tradesman or Megablast) in R8, then that gets you to $108.

Regardless of the deduction for All In Vogue coming out, you can't get to $64

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8 hours ago, hesi said:

Nurse Kitchen and Tumultuous were normal scratchings, but even then, not enough to reduce your all up place multi by so much

Hesi, it's not just the normal scratchings in that All In Vogue race that impact the multi dividend.  It's the normal scratchings in all 5 legs to the extent they were still in the market when the bet was placed.

My experience is that the TAB get this stuff right 99.99% of the time - and no I don't work for them.  

Edited by N1MUE
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6 minutes ago, N1MUE said:

Hesi, it's not just the normal scratchings in that All In Vogue race that impact the multi dividend.  It's the normal scratchings in all 5 legs to the extent they were still in the market when the bet was placed.

Yep, that's why I asked Tom if he minded putting up the details of his place multi, so we could pick it to bits and see if it all made sense

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Here's the bet details, just to illustrate that the 43% in Turny's case is very very high (in our case 13% by defection of a well-regarded contender the day before)

Saturday’s multi for $60

·       Qji Express (Top 3 @ $1.45 ) into

·       Tomelilla  (Win at $3.80) into

·       Ambitious Winner (Win at $3.80).

To return; $1256.40 - bet made Friday morning.

The actual return was significantly less than that...I don't have the exact figure but am told it returned about $1080.

Why? There were only two scratchings in the three races,

TAB's reply (in part)

yes it was Ritzy Sparkle scratching which resulted in a 13% deduction.

 

The bet was placed at 08:52 on the 1 May and Ritzy Sparkle was scratched at 08:58 am on the 1 June.

 

Had your bet been placed 10 minutes later the market price would have been adjusted.

 

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I have to say that I have been burned by FF place multis a few times, so I avoid them and go with all up on the tote.

Firstly, you can never find out online what the deductions are for scratchings, so have to ring up the TAB

Secondly, you get a late scratching, regardless, your FF price is adjusted downwards accordingly and usually you end up well below the tote price, which has had time to partially adjust back up

Used to run comparisons on the same bet, FF vs tote, and the tote usually came out well in front

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I hear you Hesi - I am still debating with the TAB and have them rattled - but bottom line is Multi bets should be avoided - they deduct wrongly - and you have no appeal  - go all ups on SPs - Multis are are an accountants bet not a NZ bookmakers bet - they are BS

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On 6/07/2018 at 7:05 PM, hesi said:

I have to say that I have been burned by FF place multis a few times, so I avoid them and go with all up on the tote.

Firstly, you can never find out online what the deductions are for scratchings, so have to ring up the TAB

Secondly, you get a late scratching, regardless, your FF price is adjusted downwards accordingly and usually you end up well below the tote price, which has had time to partially adjust back up

Used to run comparisons on the same bet, FF vs tote, and the tote usually came out well in front

Come on Hesi, think a little here.

Fixed odds WILL ALWAYS come out ahead of the tote in actual betting on multis.

The comparisons you ran were theoretical mate, if you actually took the bet it would have influenced the price downward on the tote.

This sort of statement reminds me of people who test on paper systems and then when they actually start to bet them fail to achieve the results of the past. Paper testing is done often with backfitting to achieve results & the profits are calculated on the final declared price. Now when you start betting live you are exposed to timing that doesn't exist when you paper test, ie: you could take a price about a runner who then drifts out, it can involve one or 2 longer priced winners who if taken out of the paper testing could well produce a loss over time instead of showing a decent profit. Can involve taking short priced favs, always risky as the fav in many races is not determined right till the jump and paper testing of shorties always shows way poorer results when actually bet.

The only way to test anything punting wise is with real investments, can be very small but you then can eliminate many of the failures I describe above.

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26 minutes ago, barryb said:

Come on Hesi, think a little here.

Fixed odds WILL ALWAYS come out ahead of the tote in actual betting on multis.

The comparisons you ran were theoretical mate, if you actually took the bet it would have influenced the price downward on the tote.

This sort of statement reminds me of people who test on paper systems and then when they actually start to bet them fail to achieve the results of the past. Paper testing is done often with backfitting to achieve results & the profits are calculated on the final declared price. Now when you start betting live you are exposed to timing that doesn't exist when you paper test, ie: you could take a price about a runner who then drifts out, it can involve one or 2 longer priced winners who if taken out of the paper testing could well produce a loss over time instead of showing a decent profit. Can involve taking short priced favs, always risky as the fav in many races is not determined right till the jump and paper testing of shorties always shows way poorer results when actually bet.

The only way to test anything punting wise is with real investments, can be very small but you then can eliminate many of the failures I describe above.

Completely agree with that, although I would never bet on multis anyway. However, while I agree that retrospective testing is not very useful except as a starting point, I think prospective testing is just as good as actually betting provided it models real betting exactly.

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Agree with the posts about multis and also testing ideas on paper. I never take a multi personally. I wouldn't want to give advice, but paper systems don't factor in a number of things about price as suggested above. And I'd also even place a caveat on an idea that works with low levels of investment. May continue working at those levels but unlikely to be linear in returns as bet size increases. Simply getting the bets on at larger levels becomes an issue at the same price. Providers may knock you back etc. Volatility of Betfair simply won't necessarily allow things that can happen with small volumes to occur with larger volumes. Tote prices are obviously more affected as bet size increases.

I had a guy I knew come up to me one day about a system someone was trying to sell him. Was about investing on Tabcorp trifectas. Told him it was likely a crock of shit. He asked me to look into it and gave me a booklet of around 30 pages on it. And I went back and told him that 100% it was all made up and it was all based on paper results. They had things like limiting subscriptions to 100 people etc. And then had past results of things like a trifecta at Nowra paying x - say $700. Then you could actually go and look at the trifecta pool of their listed results, and find out there was only say 20 winning tickets on that trifecta. The pools could clearly not sustain this group getting to 100 people and getting the trifecta and getting $700 from it (even if the process did produce the selections indicated).

Let alone that things like this are dodgy, anything you do has to consider the impact of what you plan to do, to the price - and as mentioned, the point in time when you are going to be able to do the bet needs to be factored in to the 'assessment'

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