Chief Stipe Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: 'luck in the running' is clearly a variable. It's not a variable. What is "luck"? You can't measure it before the race and you can't measure it after the race. The fact that you can't measure it before the race means you can't include it in your assessment of chance. 16 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: You are mixing up likelihood,chance and measure to suit your flawed argument. No you are. If you can't measure a variable then it isn't worth worrying about or it isn't actually a variable e.g. luck! 16 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Odds and prices are mere opinions....every odds on fav would win according to your...theory.Why don't they?? At least 1 in 3 favourites do. Odds and prices are assessments of chance based on measurable variables (unless you use your methods). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: It's not a variable. What is "luck"? You can't measure it before the race and you can't measure it after the race. The fact that you can't measure it before the race means you can't include it in your assessment of chance. No you are. If you can't measure a variable then it isn't worth worrying about or it isn't actually a variable e.g. luck! At least 1 in 3 favourites do. Odds and prices are assessments of chance based on measurable variables (unless you use your methods). why do 2 out of 3 lose then...must be a reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 50 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: why do 2 out of 3 lose then...must be a reason. It isn't bad luck. More often a better horse wins on the day because it either performed above its assessment or the favourite performed below theirs or both. The point is you can't measure your variable of "luck" before a race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: It isn't bad luck. More often a better horse wins on the day because it either performed above its assessment or the favourite performed below theirs or both. The point is you can't measure your variable of "luck" before a race. They say an ounce of luck is worth a ton of judgement. By your method you clearly can't measure future performance. Plenty of other factors besides the two you mention,tempo,barriers,weight...etc. Don't know how many times I've heard the post mortem...needed luck...couldn't get out in time,an ounce of luck it wins,unlucky got caught behind a tiring runner,got bumped at the 500...and so on. So luck is most definitely a big factor,when there are only seconds between 1st and...last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: They say an ounce of luck is worth a ton of judgement. It is just a saying. You haven't explained how you measure your "luck variable" before a race in assessing a horses chance. 5 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Plenty of other factors besides the two you mention,tempo,barriers,weight...etc. I haven't mentioned any factors or variables. You've mentioned one - "luck" when it isn't a variable. 6 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Don't know how many times I've heard the post mortem...needed luck...couldn't get out in time,an ounce of luck it wins,unlucky got caught behind a tiring runner,got bumped at the 500...and so on. That's opinion and or (in your case) excuses for why a horse didn't perform up to expectations. LUCK isn't a measurable variable either before or after. Many horses get knocked over or bumped and still win. Was their "luck" a different type of "luck" to those that didn't win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 ' Odds and prices are assessments of chance based on measurable variables (unless you use your methods).' 'I haven't mentioned any factors or variables. You've mentioned one - "luck" when it isn't a variable.' As you can have good luck...or bad luck...it is variable. ' Luck Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster https://www.merriam-webster.com › dictionary › luck luck: [noun] a force that brings good fortune or adversity. the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual.' Perhaps you may reveal these 'measurable variables' you base your assessments on. Don't want all your secrets...a couple of measurable variables will do.😃 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 2 hours ago, holy ravioli said: As you can have good luck...or bad luck...it is variable. It isn't measurable. Therefore it is worthless as a variable in determining chance. 2 hours ago, holy ravioli said: Perhaps you may reveal these 'measurable variables' you base your assessments on. What's the point in discussing anything with an idiot who thinks "luck" is a measurable variable that can be used to assess a horses chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: It isn't measurable. Therefore it is worthless as a variable in determining chance. What's the point in discussing anything with an idiot who thinks "luck" is a measurable variable that can be used to assess a horses chance. I see....the default retreat for the 'stumped'.....attack the messenger...onya..Chief!🙄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: I see....the default retreat for the 'stumped'.....attack the messenger...onya..Chief!🙄 Sorry which messenger? Can't have been you as you don't have any message. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said: Sorry which messenger? Can't have been you as you don't have any message. Very,very puerile debating technique Chief.....unbelievable ..really.🛌 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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