barryb Posted August 5, 2018 Share Posted August 5, 2018 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Thomass said: ...the good start 1400M run showed she was back to her previous superior form and capabilities...especially in a weaker R 65 class....I rated her value at 12's...started 22's Bazz would have got 66's Hey Thomass, yes I did back it & I took mid tote as it was unders at $15 early, I expected it to drift out to $25 or more. Ended up getting $20.20 on mid div. Edited August 5, 2018 by barryb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 5, 2018 Share Posted August 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, barryb said: Hey Thomass, yes I did back it & I took mid tote as it was unders at $15 early, I expected it to drift out to $25 or more. Ended up getting $20.20 on mid div. Good on you Bazz...knew that was your type of mare What did the ratings show was her best effort...that limited paid one you subscribe to that produces speed ratings... The R 75 Premier day...or the R 85 on Boxing Day...where she was used up after being caught wide...or the maiden win? A staying mare...with problems..producing good efforts over shorter unsuitable distances... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 5, 2018 Share Posted August 5, 2018 I do No form punting Thomass, I leave Looney theory punting to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 5, 2018 Author Share Posted August 5, 2018 4 hours ago, Thomass said: To be including the new rating band as a "downgrade" when its next to the same is just thick az It is still down in grade. According to you - superior when a good performance. Maybe you don't understand the difference between benchmark 72 and benchmark 75. 4 hours ago, Thomass said: As for BL...she'd matured and strengthened a few starts back to run well in higher class over 2400M... Yep, 13 starts back. 20 months ago running over 2400m. 3 hours ago, Thomass said: The R 75 Premier day...or the R 85 on Boxing Day...where she was used up after being caught wide...or the maiden win? Both Premier day runs in excess of 18 months ago. And still - every single selection - after the races. You put up so many, why can't you just put up one before the races. I know, you're a fraud. 0/8 last time you tried. Blinkers on, Down in Grade. $3 - $5 runners. All losers. Next time, just try laying your ones, especially if they are well under the odds, like these ones. I wonder how many of those managed to even place. Track Race # Horse My Price SP Riccarton Park 3 10 FIRE LILY $100.00 $7.00 Te Rapa 5 4 IMPULSIVE HABIT $300.03 $7.00 Riccarton Park 9 1 HAND IT TO JONESY $30.61 $3.00 Riccarton Park 9 6 SMILING ASSASSIN $40.54 $6.00 Riccarton Park 9 8 OREPUKI LAD $62.50 $9.00 Te Rapa 8 9 PEARLESCENCE $149.99 $11.00 Riccarton Park 10 5 ROCK ISLAND LINE $78.95 $6.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 5, 2018 Share Posted August 5, 2018 As I arksed... Do you have the love of a woman in your heart....or curious? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 how does one calculate "my price" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 6, 2018 Author Share Posted August 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rangatira said: how does one calculate "my price" I do it by taking 100/'my percentage chance' to get prices to a market percentage of 100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 1 minute ago, mardigras said: I do it by taking 100/'my percentage chance' to get prices to a market percentage of 100. with you so far how do you arrive at the percentage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 6, 2018 Author Share Posted August 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rangatira said: with you so far how do you arrive at the percentage That's an individual thing. I do that by simulating running the race 1500 times and use that to tell me the percentage each horse wins, comes second etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 I'm a bit worried that this thread is turning into an intelligent conversation with constructive questions and answers. Please cease and desist. I'm not sure I can cope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 (edited) 11 minutes ago, mardigras said: That's an individual thing. I do that by simulating running the race 1500 times and use that to tell me the percentage each horse wins, comes second etc. are these race simulators readily available, pretty sure my credit is still good with bond and bond Edited August 6, 2018 by Rangatira Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, curious said: I'm a bit worried that this thread is turning into an intelligent conversation with constructive questions and answers. Please cease and desist. I'm not sure I can cope. I think a certain person will be on board with simulating but the intelligent part may confound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: I think a certain person will be on board with simulating but the intelligent part may confound. The only simulating he does is with the deflatable princess from what I can see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 6, 2018 Author Share Posted August 6, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Rangatira said: are these race simulators readily available, pretty sure my credit is still good with bond and bond Not that I know of. I wrote mine and it's the only one I know about. Bond and Bond might be useful for joining up with thomass, not much else. Edited August 6, 2018 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 1 minute ago, curious said: The only simulating he does is with the deflatable princess from what I can see. do you speak of princess baaaarbaaara 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: Not that I know of. I wrote mine and it's the only one I know about. seems you are a good few steps ahead of me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 1 hour ago, mardigras said: That's an individual thing. I do that by simulating running the race 1500 times and use that to tell me the percentage each horse wins, comes second etc. Wow...so do you get curious to help you in this exercise? Round and round the mulberry bush...the Monkey chased the Weasel... ..half a kg of tuppenney rice half a kg of treacle... Must be quite a mess after that malarkey? Do you simulate making love after that due to the tiredness of chasing each other around so many times? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 6, 2018 Author Share Posted August 6, 2018 2 hours ago, Thomass said: Wow...so do you get curious to help you in this exercise? Round and round the mulberry bush...the Monkey chased the Weasel... ..half a kg of tuppenney rice half a kg of treacle... Must be quite a mess after that malarkey? Do you simulate making love after that due to the tiredness of chasing each other around so many times? Take your meds, although medication isn't likely to fix your issues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 2 hours ago, Thomass said: Wow...so do you get curious to help you in this exercise? Curious only runs 900 simulations, probably because of smaller field sizes in the US than the UK and Oz and wherever else mardigras bets that provides sufficient statistical rigour. That's probably more robust than the two that you run, one with blinkers on and one with them off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 (edited) And how's your statistical rigor getting on with betting only Maidens here...your 'niche'? ...and do you treat '3 wide in the Open' the same as 'perfect trail' like your lovely Mardi does? Edited August 6, 2018 by Thomass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 6, 2018 Author Share Posted August 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Thomass said: ...and do you treat '3 wide in the Open' the same as 'perfect trail' like your lovely Mardi does? Please quantify the impact '3 wide in the open' has compared to 'perfect trail'. I need another laugh. It'll be hilarious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Please quantify the impact '3 wide in the open' has compared to 'perfect trail'. I need another laugh. It'll be hilarious. I used to enjoy taking you apart...bit by bit...with a nipple of Chianti.. ..but it lost its enjoyment really relly quickly when you kept arksing stupid questions... ..today it's feeling sorry for dumb animals day.... ...this question is like "discuss the contention that Woddy has the body of a roll top desk and the mind of a duck" ...we know you have that mind....but not how rotund you are...although sitting in a soiled singlet and y -fronts all day...can't be pretty I allow, as a general rule, 0.5 second when caught without cover...but it could be more if the pace is on or the distance travelled is greater.... And when a neddy draws wide...as RUNLIKEYOUFINSTOLEIT did...and had to be snagged back, instead of the chance of being caught wide in the open...in a superior black type race...when she usually races handy.. ...I'll add 0.35 seconds...probably should have added more Of course you and Bazz treat it all the same!! dickheads right there...the perfect run or wide without cover...3L from the winner... exactly the same performance #totalfindickheadformanalysis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 Thomass, the issue is how did you arrive at 0.35 secs, is there some formula you use or did you just pluck it out of your arse like we all suspect?. Go on Thommo, admit it, you have no fing idea and everything you do is pure guess work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 (edited) The other issue is Mardigras, Curious and myself have told you countless times that you are not doing form analysis, you are doing nothing more that supposition, most of it is based on rumour, unquantifiable formulas (actually no formulas exist, its all a wild guess), silly theories that are not tested with any substance, pure guesswork & after the event selections. Otherwise known as dreaming. Edited August 7, 2018 by barryb 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 3 hours ago, Thomass said: And how's your statistical rigor getting on with betting only Maidens here...your 'niche'? Haven't done that for about 4 years because I no longer have the necessary data sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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