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Bit Of A Yarn

Down In grade - $$$


mardigras

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16 minutes ago, Thomass said:

...the good start 1400M run showed she was back to her previous superior form and capabilities...especially in a weaker R 65 class....I rated her value at 12's...started 22's

Bazz would have got 66's 

Hey Thomass, yes I did back it & I took mid tote as it was unders at $15 early, I expected it to drift out to $25 or more.

Ended up getting $20.20 on mid div.

Edited by barryb
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28 minutes ago, barryb said:

Hey Thomass, yes I did back it & I took mid tote as it was unders at $15 early, I expected it to drift out to $25 or more.

Ended up getting $20.20 on mid div.

Good on you Bazz...knew that was your type of mare

What did the ratings show was her best effort...that limited paid one you subscribe to that produces speed ratings...

The R 75 Premier day...or the R 85 on Boxing Day...where she was used up after being caught wide...or the maiden win?

A staying mare...with problems..producing good efforts over shorter unsuitable distances...

 

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4 hours ago, Thomass said:

To be including the new rating band as a "downgrade" when its next to the same is just thick az

It is still down in grade. According to you - superior when a good performance. Maybe you don't understand the difference between benchmark 72 and benchmark 75.

4 hours ago, Thomass said:

As for BL...she'd matured and strengthened a few starts back to run well in higher class over 2400M...

Yep, 13 starts back. 20 months ago running over 2400m.

3 hours ago, Thomass said:

The R 75 Premier day...or the R 85 on Boxing Day...where she was used up after being caught wide...or the maiden win?

Both Premier day runs in excess of 18 months ago. 

And still - every single selection - after the races.

You put up so many, why can't you just put up one before the races. I know, you're a fraud. 0/8 last time you tried. Blinkers on, Down in Grade. $3 - $5 runners. All losers.

Next time, just try laying your ones, especially if they are well under the odds, like these ones. I wonder how many of those managed to even place.

 

Track Race # Horse My Price SP
Riccarton Park 3 10 FIRE LILY $100.00 $7.00
Te Rapa 5 4 IMPULSIVE HABIT $300.03 $7.00
Riccarton Park 9 1 HAND IT TO JONESY $30.61 $3.00
Riccarton Park 9 6 SMILING ASSASSIN $40.54 $6.00
Riccarton Park 9 8 OREPUKI LAD $62.50 $9.00
Te Rapa 8 9 PEARLESCENCE $149.99 $11.00
Riccarton Park 10 5 ROCK ISLAND LINE $78.95 $6.50
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11 minutes ago, mardigras said:

That's an individual thing. I do that by simulating running the race 1500 times and use that to tell me the percentage each horse wins, comes second etc.

are these race simulators readily available, pretty sure my credit is still good with bond and bond

 

Edited by Rangatira
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3 minutes ago, curious said:

I'm a bit worried that this thread is turning into an intelligent conversation with constructive questions and answers. Please cease and desist. I'm not sure I can cope.

I think a certain person will be on board with simulating but the intelligent part may confound. 

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4 minutes ago, Rangatira said:

are these race simulators readily available, pretty sure my credit is still good with bond and bond

 

Not that I know of. I wrote mine and it's the only one I know about.

Bond and Bond might be useful for joining up with thomass, not much else.

Edited by mardigras
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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

That's an individual thing. I do that by simulating running the race 1500 times and use that to tell me the percentage each horse wins, comes second etc.

Wow...so do you get curious to help you in this exercise?

Round and round the mulberry bush...the Monkey chased the Weasel...

..half a kg of tuppenney rice half a kg of treacle...

Must be quite a mess after that malarkey?

Do you simulate making love after that due to the tiredness of chasing each other around so many times?

 

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2 hours ago, Thomass said:

Wow...so do you get curious to help you in this exercise?

Round and round the mulberry bush...the Monkey chased the Weasel...

..half a kg of tuppenney rice half a kg of treacle...

Must be quite a mess after that malarkey?

Do you simulate making love after that due to the tiredness of chasing each other around so many times?

 

Take your meds, although medication isn't likely to fix your issues.

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2 hours ago, Thomass said:

Wow...so do you get curious to help you in this exercise?

Curious only runs 900 simulations, probably because of smaller field sizes in the US than the UK and Oz and wherever else mardigras bets that provides sufficient statistical rigour. That's probably more robust than the two that you run, one with blinkers on and one with them off.

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Please quantify the impact '3 wide in the open' has compared to 'perfect trail'.

I need another laugh. It'll be hilarious.

I used to enjoy taking you apart...bit by bit...with a nipple of Chianti..

..but it lost its enjoyment really relly quickly when you kept arksing stupid questions...

..today it's feeling sorry for dumb animals day....

...this question is like "discuss the contention that Woddy has the body of a roll top desk and the mind of a duck"

...we know you have that mind....but not how rotund you are...although sitting in a soiled singlet and y -fronts all day...can't be pretty

I allow, as a general rule,  0.5 second when caught without cover...but it could be more if the pace is on or the distance travelled is greater....

And when a neddy draws wide...as RUNLIKEYOUFINSTOLEIT did...and had to be snagged back, instead of the chance of being caught wide in the open...in a superior black type race...when she usually races handy..

...I'll add 0.35 seconds...probably should have added more

Of course you and Bazz treat it all the same!!

dickheads right there...the perfect run or wide without cover...3L from the winner...

exactly the same performance

#totalfindickheadformanalysis

 

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The other issue is Mardigras, Curious and myself have told you countless times that you are not doing form analysis, you are doing nothing more that supposition, most of it is based on rumour, unquantifiable formulas (actually no formulas exist, its all a wild guess), silly theories that are not tested with any substance, pure guesswork & after the event selections.

Otherwise known as dreaming.

Edited by barryb
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