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By Wandering Eyes · Posted
The two new names on the GI Kentucky Derby trail each exemplify one of the principal alternatives to what nowadays feels like the ideal route, namely to exploit the imbalances of the commercial market with a breed-to-race program. Nobody having ever operated one of those on a scale as lavish as the one that produced Sovereignty (Into Mischief), the choice between these other models is strictly practical. If you can run to $2.4 million for a Saratoga yearling, as did Speedway Stable for the Into Mischief colt we now know as GII San Felipe Stakes winner Potente, well, good for you. It was the second highest price paid at that auction, followed at $1.9 million by another unbeaten Derby contender in Paladin (Gun Runner). A grandson of grass champion Perfect Sting (Red Ransom), Potente further consolidates his mega-sire's hand in his quest for that fourth Derby winner. Obviously those high-stakes gambles that do pay off must typically redress plenty of duds, too. But for the majority, who cannot play at that level, the favored option tends to be to join the stampede for new stallions. The Puma pounced in the Tampa Bay Derby | SV Photography The theory goes that people are simply seeking the next Into Mischief while still affordable, but that doesn't stack up with the fact that they rarely want anything to do with the same stallions once their averages are collapsing “on the bubble.” On the other hand, they do have a certain self-fulfilling logic behind them, in that a stallion's first book almost invariably proves the biggest and best of his career. That being so, it feels perfectly fair to expect a stallion's first crop to offer a pretty reliable sense of his efficacy. What is not fair, however, is to draw conclusions while that crop remains barely adolescent. In contrast with the commercial industry in Europe, which is disastrously conflating mere precocity with the kind of speed that indicates genuine class, the American breed is fortunate that ringside investment remains primarily oriented to a second turn on the first Saturday in May. On that basis, it would be idiotic to worry when expensive new stallions fail to collect a bunch of sprint maidens at the Keeneland Spring Meet and Churchill. Take Essential Quality. Yes, he was champion juvenile, but he only made his debut in September and reserved his moment of Classic glory for 12 furlongs round Belmont–an assignment that has showcased the trademarks of his sire Tapit as toughness, constitution, speed that lasts. Now, as the most expensive ($75,000) of his intake, Essential Quality was always likely to entertain mares with Classic bloodlines even among outside clients–never mind in his home herd, saturated with two-turn quality. So we should only expect his debut crop to start showing their true colors, well, right around now. Such is the world we live in, however, that Essential Quality must this spring ply his trade at $25,000, a third consecutive cut and halved since last year. Class leader Yaupon, in contrast, was hoisted from $25,000 to $60,000. Well, sure, he has been a knockout sales horse, and saw 133 yearlings into the ring from his first crop. And, as a speedball with 82 juvenile starters, he duly landed running with eight stakes winners on his way to the freshman title. Essential Quality, third in that table, had three stakes winners from 58 juvenile starters. Just a few weeks into their sophomore campaign, however, he has not only added two new stakes winners (none yet in 2026 for Yaupon) but also beaten him to a first graded stakes success. And while it plainly remains to be seen whether The Puma's GIII Tampa Bay Derby announced a genuine Classic prospect, the premise on which these two horses went to stud has hardly unchanged. The Puma fell short of his reserve (at $95,000) at the Keeneland September Sale, but had begun the improvement we can anticipate in Essential Quality's maturing stock when reaching $150,000 at OBS the following April. And the same underlying curve has now seen him win Saturday's race as a maiden who had not run before January. Nor was The Puma's maternal line eligible to produce any kind of juvenile flyer, albeit he's the first foal of a pretty competent performer in Eve of War (Declaration of War), who broke her maiden on debut (at three), added an allowance and even ran third in the GIII Monmouth Oaks. Her own dam, an unraced daughter of Broken Vow, remains a work in progress but for now there is little other distinction on a page that depends for black type on The Puma's third dam Bedanken (Geri). Four Grade III wins qualified Bedanken as much the most accomplished foal by her forgotten sire, a son of Theatrical (Ire) who chased home Spinning World at the Breeders' Cup. Bedanken's dam helped Geri out with genes productively deployed by her siblings Apolda (Theatrical) and Ganges (Riverman), respectively a three-time graded stakes winner and Classic-placed in Britain. Bedanken actually shares a fifth dam with none other than Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}), namely Legendra, foundation mare at Newstead Farm, Virginia. But that is plainly a tenuous foundation, and it seems fair to give Essential Quality plenty of credit for putting some teeth into The Puma. ANOTHER SECOND-CROP SIRE ON THE MOVE Mind you, it's just as well that these second-crop sires are rallying with their maturing stock. By historic standards, they underachieved catastrophically with their juveniles. In fact, Taken by the Wind's success in the GIII Pocahontas Stakes made Rock Your World the one and only freshman sire to manage a graded stakes winner in 2025. Even worse, then, than the three scraped together by the class of 2023, sandwiched by scores of 12 and 16 for the intakes either side. Taken by the Wind in the Silverbulletday S. | Hodges Photography Fortunately, Essential Quality is not alone in alleviating their collective embarrassment with a graded stakes breakout. Tacitus has come up with Silent Tactic; Lexitonian, with She Be Smooth. And now Charlatan has become the first of the cohort to muster a second scorer at this level, Forced Entry adding the GIII Santa Ysabel Stakes to the G3 UA Oaks success of Labwah a couple of weeks previously. That leaves Charlatan with two of the top five in the GI Kentucky Oaks points table, a welcome advance on just two black-type scorers last year. So perhaps a case can be made, as for the only sire in the class who started at a higher fee, that Charlatan's stock simply lacked precocity. His first yearlings looked after his commercial clients by duly topping the averages at $254,774. Interestingly, however, while his footprint almost matched that of Yaupon with 125 into the ring (against 133), only 54 made the starting gate at two (compared with 82 for Yaupon). Charlatan must have been a very natural talent, to win the Arkansas Derby after outclassing a total of seven rivals in his maiden and allowance; and we know he had a ton of speed, pairing up that Grade I score over nine furlongs with one over seven in the Malibu. But he didn't begin what proved a very light career until January, while his dam Authenticity (Quiet American) only started at four and reserved her peak (Grade II winner/five Grade I podiums) until she was six. Charlatan's fee was halved this year, having hitherto maintained at his opening pitch of $50,000. That's a fairly rare strategy nowadays, and nicely respectful: anyone supporting a new stallion can generally expect implicit devaluation of their investment in serial fee cuts. But there's no denying that Charlatan and Essential Quality both needed some help, their second crops last year both averaging $88,000-and-change. We'll see, but perhaps Charlatan is just another slow burn now kindling something positive for those who have persevered with him. …WHILE ANOTHER REMAINS AHEAD OF THE GAME Beau Liam at Airdrie 7.21.22 In contrast, no second-crop stallion has a better commercial trajectory than Beau Liam. Though burdened with “gold” in the sub-$10k category of our winter survey of Value Sires, last week he added to his expanding resumé with a first 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. A $3,000 yearling at a Fasig digital sale in December 2024, Crude Velocity exploded to $250,000 at OBS the following June and showed why when accelerating out of trouble on debut at Santa Anita. And he's out of a $2,000 mare! Beau Liam's meteoric career, brief but dazzling, absolutely entitles him to be upgrading mares in this way. His 23 juvenile winners (two in stakes company) beat all bar Yaupon (30) from far fewer runners (54/82). Of just a dozen yearlings available from Beau Liam's second crop, 10 duly averaged $132,300 off a cover fee of $6,000. That's what can happen if you stick with stallions because you believe in them, and not just because they happen to be the latest shiny, disposable rookie off the carousel. The post Breeding Digest: No Strain To Show Mercy To Quality appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
The fifth pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and lone Kentucky Oaks offering is set to begin Friday at noon ET and will close Sunday evening, Churchill Downs said in a press release on Tuesday. Both pools feature $2 Win and Exacta wagering, as well as a separate Oaks/Derby Future Double linking selections in both races. The Kentucky Derby Future Wager closes Sunday at 6 p.m., while the Oaks Future Wager remains open until 6:30 p.m. Headlining the Derby wagering slate is GII Fasig-Tipton Risen Star winner Paladin (Gun Runner) who is expected to make his next start in the Apr. 4 running of the GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. In the Oaks Future Wager, the unbeaten Zany (American Pharoah) was made the 3-1 morning line favorite out of a field of 39. At 20-1, the 40th interest is for “All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies.” Click here for the Derby and here for the Oaks wagering menu. The post Paladin Slated As 5-1 Favorite In Derby Future Wager Pool 5; Zany Leads Lone Oaks Future Wager At 3-1 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Byron King's Top 12 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, presented by Spendthrift Farm.View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
As the countdown to the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) and $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) continues, fans will have another opportunity to wager on their favorites in the Future Wager pools, which begin March 13 at noon ET.View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Jay Rooney BIENVENUE - R5 (3) Looks ready to win again on his last two runs and drawn the inside gate Owen Goulding BIENVENUE - R5 (3) Has run two big races since a bleed from wide draws and has finally got a barrier Olivia O'Sullivan BIENVENUE - R5 (3) Unlucky last start from wide barrier, inside draw and services of Zac Purton Phillip Woo THE HEIR - R2 (2) Is ideally drawn and can salute with a clean trip from the inside barrier Shannon (Vincent Wong) CHINA WIN - R9 (11) He is ready to...View the full article
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