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  1. Manawatu RC 3 April 2021 - R 6 - Chair, Mrs N Moffatt

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 431 views

  3. NZ Metropolitan TC 3 April 2021 - R 1 - Chair, Mr D Anderson

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 381 views

  4. Riverton RC 3 April 2021 - R 2 - Chair, Prof G Hall

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 381 views

  5. Riverton RC 3 April 2021 - R 8 - Chair, Prof G Hall

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 388 views

  6. Auckland RC 3 April 2021 – R 6 (instigating a protest) – Chair, G Jones

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 348 views

  7. NZ Metropolitan TC 3 April 2021 - R 5 (instigating a protest) - Chair, Mr D Anderson

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 421 views

  8. Waimate TC 28 March 2021 - R 3 (request for a ruling) - Chair, Mr P Knowles

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 440 views

  9. Waimate TC 28 March 2021 - R 9 - Chair, Mr P Knowles

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 415 views

  10. Waimate TC 28 March 2021 - R 10 - Chair, Mr P Knowles

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 412 views

  11. Taranaki RC 26 March 2021 - R 7 - Chair, Mr N McCutcheon

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 417 views

  12. Hororata RC 27 March 2021 - R 3 - Chair, Mr D Anderson

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 367 views

  13. Hororata RC 27 March 2021 - R 8 - Chair, Mr D Anderson

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 400 views

  14. Hororata RC 27 March 2021 - R 7 - Chair, Mr D Anderson

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 412 views

  15. NZ Metro TC 24 March 2021 - R 2 (instigating a protest) - Chair, Mr R McKenzie

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 467 views

  16. Counties RC 24 March 2021 – R 2 – Chair, Mr A Smith

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 369 views

  17. NZ Metro TC 24 March 2021 - R 4 - Chair, Mr R McKenzie

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 436 views

  18. NZ Metro TC 24 March 2021 - R 4 - Chair, Mr R McKenzie

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 420 views

  19. Forbury Park TC 22 March 2021 - R 4 (instigating a protest) - Chair, Prof G Hall

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 424 views

  20. Beaumont RC 22 March 2021 - R 5 - Chair, Mr P Knowles

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 508 views

  21. Banks Peninsula TC 21 March 2021 - R 2 - Chair, Mr R McKenzie

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 406 views

  22. Banks Peninsula TC 21 March 2021 - R 7 - Chair, Mr R McKenzie

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 403 views

  23. Banks Peninsula TC 21 March 2021 - R 1 (instigating a protest) - Chair, Mr R McKenzie

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 371 views

  24. Banks Peninsula TC 21 March 2021 - R 3 (request for ruling) - Chair, Mr R McKenzie (Requesting a Ruling)

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 405 views

  25. NZ Metropolitan TC - 19 March 2021 - R 3 - Chair, Mr R McKenzie

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 425 views

  26. R Te Aroha 21 March 2021 – R 6 – Chair, Mr G Jones

    By Chief Stipe,
    • 0 replies
    • 375 views

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  • Posts

    • Chief Stipe
      The art of buying a yearling that goes on to be a Stallion

      By Chief Stipe · Posted

      No that isn't how probability works.  
    • Chief Stipe
      The art of buying a yearling that goes on to be a Stallion

      By Chief Stipe · Posted

      However the forecast models are significantly more accurate than they were 40 years ago.  Their accuracy increases the closer you get to the day or hour. My partner uses the YR weather forecasting model and often I get told that YR says it will be such and such on a specific race day in two months time.  I invariably laugh and no matter how hard I try to explain that we have a maritime and very variable weather pattern I cannot move her.  As I say to her two weeks out most weather forecasts reach 70% probability or higher.  A week out and they are getting close to 90%.   If you are deciding what to wear I suggest she waits until the last 48 hours.  If she wants to choose earlier I suggest that she at least waits until two weeks out and if there are bargains before then buy a hot and a cold one.
    • Gammalite
      Out The Gate 🫤

      By Gammalite · Posted

      Always associated it with Whinging Poms. Do they say that in NZ?  Is very very common in OZ. especially now at cricket Ashes time. The funny thing is this year for a major change,   instead of whinging about the Aussies , weather, and Baggie greens non-stop. They've turned on their 'own' with great volatility 😁 . And a 'Whinging' Non stop about their own Cricket team in the media . ( who are performing poorly so far )    i'm almost hoping they win at Adelaide next week to cheer them up a bit lol. (and keep the series alive for Boxing day) 
    • Chief Stipe
      The art of buying a yearling that goes on to be a Stallion

      By Chief Stipe · Posted

      An opinion is subjective.  A quantifiable prediction based on data past and present with an estimate of probability is different.  If I say that based on the data I have I predict in will rain within one hour and that prediction has a 90% chance of happening.  Then I can measure the outcome against that prediction.  I'm saying that 9 times out of 10 I'll be right. But if I say Gammalite will win the first at Addington but offer no data supporting my selection and probability of it happening then it's just a hunch i.e. a subjective opinion.
    • Gammalite
      The art of buying a yearling that goes on to be a Stallion

      By Gammalite · Posted

      I don't know about that? . I would say that any PREDICTION for anything , is just an OPINION. until it happened as that it is now in 'past tense'. so therefore becomes a FACT. The Weather Office should have data to accurately predict the weather most days but wow. the inaccuracies are still there in bulk. People complain every day. As they do in horse racing every day too. Not getting the results they predicted.  Racing is full of inaccurate Predictions of finishing order, how a race will be run, any number of things really. All just opinion.  your Rain example shows the Inaccuracy of A.I in all it's glory. It only has to rain in say 8 of a total of 10 hours of predictions (based on the recorded past data you mentioned) and it's PREDICTION is Immeadiately 10% incorrect.  therefore it was just an OPINION of what might happen .and just like any horse race. an inaccurate opinion on any unknown number of occasions.  

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