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Crosshaven ready for Aurie’s Star
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Rayner Aims for Family Double at Riccarton
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Feather weight for winter marvel in Cup
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Rae Aims for Strong Kickoff at Ruakaka
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Mark Twain continues on Cup path
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Divine Essence scores maiden success at Tauranga
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Antino set to chase Memsie Stakes success
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Kerrin McEvoy to partner Coleman in Moir return
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Winters finish season on a high
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Mxothwa on the board with first win
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Murdochs wrap up season with Tauranga win
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I Wish I Win locked in for Everest redemption
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Master Fay ready for raceday return
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Other than Cambridge, is there a track in New Zealand where the training operation isn't subsided? -
By Murray Fish · Posted
reading this, it suggest that getting this generation doesn't and isn't going to have as much disposable income and as other previous generations! Double the average unemployment and $26,000 in debt. The triple-whammy crushing a generation’s wealth How high inflation numbers affect us VIDEO CREDIT: THREENEWS The labour statistics released this week painted a stark picture of how tough the economy has been for many New Zealanders. A total of 165,000 New Zealanders are currently unemployed, contributing to the highest unemployment rate recorded by Stats NZ in a decade (5.4%). Those overall statistics are stark, but the devil is always in the details when it comes to this type of data. The numbers showed that the unemployment rate for workers under 30 is 12.5, more than double the overall figure. That information is already concerning enough, but it can’t be viewed in isolation. IRD data shows a staggering 622,892 New Zealanders currently have a student loan, with the average burden sitting at $26,075. It takes a New Zealand-based worker approximately five years to clear that debt. Student loan debt has risen 37% since 2013, when the average loan was $19,076. As the cost of living and education increases, so too does the debt burden young people are carrying. This isn’t just about the current impact on young New Zealand workers, but what this could mean in the coming decades. We’re looking at a situation here where young New Zealanders have fewer work opportunities in an era of enormous technological change and greater debt as they start their lives, raising serious questions about the challenges they face in building wealth. In some ways, we’re asking them to play a tennis match every generation has played, but forcing them to start a set down against a robot that’s been shaped in the image of Roger Federer. The compound effect Mark Smith, a senior economist at ASB, says that while the prolonged recession has been tough on every generation, but we’ve seen younger generations more acutely affected. “The economy is currently 30,000 jobs shy of what it was in late 2023, and a sizeable chunk of at least three quarters of those job losses would be for those aged under 30,” he says. “It’s almost a forgotten generation out there.” ASB senior economist Mark Smith says young people have been hit hard. It’s easy to brush this aside and offer the stoic reminder that it’s always been tough (it has) and that they have time to bounce back (they do), but this overlooks the broader impact this will have on these people and the economy in the years to come. The longer it takes these workers to get real-world experience, the longer it takes them to become productive contributors to the economy. It’s often said that it takes a new employee around six to 12 months to reach full productivity, and it might even take longer for a worker learning the ropes for the first time. “The lack of opportunity will have the impact of potentially lowering the speed limit of the New Zealand economy because you have a cohort of people who’ve been out of the labour market and not had the chance to come through and pick up new skills.” In economic terms, this is called labour market scarring, and the impact stretches well beyond just one generation. It’s something every New Zealander should be concerned about. A shrinking education premium The trade-off with an expensive university education was that it gave you access to opportunities and career progression that wouldn’t have been possible without the years spent in tertiary education. Shamubeel Eaqub, the chief economist at Simplicity, tells me the rule still applies, but not in the way it once did. “The premium of having a degree is not as high as it used to be,” Eaqub says. “The wedge between somebody with a level 3 qualification and somebody with a bachelor’s degree is getting smaller over time, but the cost of the qualification is increasing,” he says. This issue is only accentuated when you add in the complexity of technology, making it more difficult for young people to get into the workplace in the first place. “Imagine the classic big law firm, where they have a few partners at the top and many young interns and young lawyers at the bottom in a pyramid model,” says Eaqub. “But with the advent of technology, we're likely to see far fewer young people at the bottom, so it becomes more cylindrical rather than pyramid." You’ll essentially have more people competing for a smaller number of jobs, which means many will face major delays in getting into the workforce. “That start in life is important. You learn something about how to work, how to be at work, and make choices about what kind of career you want. Fewer people will have those opportunities early on in their life.” Yes, they will eventually catch up, but the lost time means student debt lingers, savings stall, earning potential doesn’t increase and the buying a family home gets kicked further down the road. “The earlier those losses are, the bigger the cumulative deficits are,” says Equab, explaining that because wealth compounds over time, a late start can drag down an entire portfolio over a life time. So where does this leave young workers? Tim Fairbrother, a certified financial planner at Rival Wealth, has written an excellent column for Stuff explaining that a young a young person doesn’t need a finance degree or six-figure salary to start building solid foundations. His recommendation is for young people to develop good habits as early as possible to ensure they can better navigate their way through a world where wealth is built quite differently from what it was in earlier generations. At a time when work opportunities are less stable, Fairbrother says young people should be getting into the habit of building an emergency fund as early as they can. Good budgeting habits are tools you can carry with you through life. While the wait for a job can be painful, the idea is not to splurge when you do start to earn a salary. Contribute to KiwiSaver, save what you can and look to get on top of your debt as soon as you can. Fairbrother also encourages young people to gain an understanding of compound growth as early as possible. “If a 19-year-old saves $20 per week until age 65, with an 8% annual growth rate (compounded weekly), they will have saved $47,840. Yet with compounding interest, they will end up with approximately $452,011.73 by age 65.” But this all remains so contingent on the ability of young people to enter the work force in the first place. No silver bullet There is no simple solution to these issues. As the nature of work changes in the face of rapid technological development, competition for those first rungs on the career ladder will only become more fierce. The good news is that the tough times over the last 18 months are showing signs of easing. Growth is returning to the employment market and we are seeing a lift in job listings around the country. But economies are cyclical and there will be more tough times ahead, which will again hit our younger generations. This issue isn’t about older generations against younger generations. It’s a debate about productivity (how fast we get there) and the ability of New Zealanders to build wealth over the course of their working lives. As artificial intelligence really beds into society and further disrupts the employment market, we will need some bold, long-term thinking about how to ensure we keep our work force still has a clear path to prosperity. Relying on the advice of Elon Musk that we shouldn’t bother saving for retirement probably isn’t going to cut it. - Stuff -
By Murray Fish · Posted
If it was based (on so called rational economics...) Avondale's $$$ is appealing! But I presume doing that will create a massive shit storm! -
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By Wandering Eyes · Posted
By Jonny Turner Wag Star brings the best form reference to today’s Transport Services Ltd Wairio Cup, now he just has to live up to it. The third placegetter in the recent Group 1 Invercargill Cup will start a hot favourite ($1.80) at Central Southland Raceway on Sunday. The 20m backmarker comes into the Wairio Cup on the back of a very narrow second in the Riverton Cup behind The Big Lebowski. Trainer-driver Craig Ferguson saw both positives and negatives in the performance. “He was travelling like the winner but when he got through and hit the front he lost concentration and ran in.” “But he did get going again and the other horse dug in and fought us off.” “The winner is a nice horse and he’s franked that form since so we can’t exactly be disappointed in our fella.” “I have made a bit of a tweak to his gear that hopefully will help him this week.” Having made those adjustments, Ferguson couldn’t be happier with Wag Star going into the Wairio Cup. “I couldn’t be happier with him really, his work has improved again since his Riverton run.” “If he can show that at the races he should be hard to beat.” Ferguson has a strong hand to play across the Wairio Cup Day programme, including a two-pronged attack on the Southern Belle Speed Series heat. Always Ticking and First Light both have their first starts for Ferguson in the race. “I have been really happy with Always Ticking’s trials and her work has been good too.” “Even with the wider draw, I think she is ready to go a pretty good race.” “It is a bit of a step up for First Light but she gets a nice draw because of it.” “She’s got gate speed and could get across to the markers, she’s at least a place chance.” Babe On The Beach and Beluga both look solid eachway hopes for the Ferguson barn. Beluga won his last start at Ascot Park while Babe On The Beach fought on nicely after sitting parked throughout her last start. Father Ned looks the best of Ferguson’s outside drives on the Wairio Cup programme. “His last start second was good and he feels like the sort of horse that will keep improving.” View the full article
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