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Handicapping Blog | Monday 18 November Handicapper’s Blog 18/11 The New Zealand Cup carnival provides the perfect finale to New Zealand’s spring racing. The 3-day, Group 1 carnival is unique, and fits ideally on the back of Melbourne Cup week. It is a busy racing week, with 9 meetings programmed across the country, and invariably presents numerous re-ratings of interest. We touch on Open race winners below. Feature Open race winner ratings: Bella Waters Gartshore Tauranga Stakes, Group 2, $150k 98 Mehzebeen Martin Collins NZ Cup, Group 3, $400k 97 Kopua TAB Mile, Group 3, $250k 96 Mystic Park Lindauer Stewards, Listed, $140k 95 Bella Waters entered the Tauranga Stakes as a rating 84 horse and risked a large re-rating for a top 4 finish - given she was competing at WFA against a 105-rated horse, Ladie’s Man, and other high-rating horses at the level weights. In winning she beat two rating 98 horses, Pearl Of Alsace and Mali Ston, in a tight finish. Given the narrow margins, and the relative weights, a re-rating to 98 (+14) was appropriate. Any less of a re-rating would have her receiving weight at their next meeting under handicap conditions, which is not equitable. The risk and benefits of running a progressive horse in a race under these conditions is a balancing act. No doubt Cambridge Stud factored these, and the calculated risk has paid dividends with Bella Waters now a Group-2 winning mare. In terms of feedback, Kopua was the most contentious re-rating of the week with his 9-point re-rating for the TAB Mile win. The entry of Perfect Scenario (rating 107) pushed the majority of field to 53kgs and out of the handicap. Kopua was 6 points out of the handicap (ie. In a precise handicap he would have carried 50kgs). To give Kopua a re-rating 6 points or less for the win would see the entire field facing him again at exactly the same weights set-up. Kopua was given 3 points for the win, and 6 points for the out of handicaps adjustment. In simple terms, had the race been run again Kopua would carry 54.5kgs. Mehzebeen and Mystic Park were standard feature race re-ratings of 5 points, given no issues with out of handicap. Previously, Mehzebeen had attracted an 8-point re-rating on Day 1 for an out of the handicap win in the Metropolitan Trophy (Listed). In that race also, Beavertown Boy was re-rated 7 points for his 2nd placing, moving him 1kg below the winner at that point in time. -
Excellent work TABman. I didn't take the Tri's and F4's this time round but yeah the Oscar B one In the Trotting FFA looked a beauty. good on you . Oscar was one of my best for the day. should of looked at that F4. Marketplace was enormous , and Borris was a beast both days. A friend has a share in Meant to Be (winning the Group1 2yearold trot) . Chief 's fav horse won at Riccarton a group 1 as well . so had those as well. Missed with 50 bucks on DSD (didn't think Swayzee could travel all those km's from Young NSW win to Chch and still win) and 50 on Miki Bennett (the 2nd day) after he looked the winner the CUP day but broke in the run home when going to the lead. Did exactly the same on Showday though. What are the chances ??😳 Was all but there to enjoy. Is Nice NewMarket said the Punters club function went well though and he had a great time. I will be there next Nov 2025 100% , as just had a few loose ends and couldn't get there last week when wanted to go. more up and downs than Leap To Fame 🤕 . only been once to Addington way back 80's with Lightning Blue. retire tomorrow . so big night out New Queens Wharf ( $3 billion dollar development in Brisbane that just opened,) is on the cards tomorrow night 🍻🕺, and might try and find a horse to bring to Addington next year. lol. Have the ASCENT Winning Tip for you already though 💰 . Another Volstead sired trotter like 'Keayang Zahara'. This blokes name is 'Enchauffour'. 2025 Ascent winner , long range prediction 😂 . He can trot a 56 second half already , (a lot faster than Meant To Be) -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
By Adam Hamilton Australia’s loss is New Zealand’s gain. In an absolute coup for NZ’s upcoming feature meetings, champion Aussie trotter Just Believe will stay in NZ rather than chase an historic third successive Inter Dominion title in NSW. Co-trainers Jess Tubbs and Greg Sugars made the final call today after days of uncertainty. “It’s been a really tough call, not because of Just Believe, but more the two pacers (Better Eclipse and Hes From Heaven),” Tubbs said. “There was no real upside in NSW for Just Believe, not when you weigh-up the prize money and having to race four times in the Inter Dominion, but we had to look at the pacing series very closely with Better Eclipse. “We couldn’t do both. We couldn’t leave ‘Harry’ in NZ and do the Inter Dominion with Better Eclipse. “In the end, Greg felt the best option was just to keep them all in NZ.” It is a huge blow to an already decimated NSW Inter Dominion series. Just Believe’s quest to become the first three-time Inter Dominion trotting champion, combined with his star power, was to be a major drawcard of the series, which starts at Newcastle on Friday week. So, Tubbs and Sugars will continue to campaign four horses – One Over All being the other – in New Zealand over the coming months. Just Believe brilliantly won his 10th Group 1 race in last Tuesday’s $400,000 Dominion Trot then ran second, after doing all the work, to Oscar Bonavena in last Friday’s $100,000 NZ Trotting free-for-all. It was his first defeat in six NZ starts. Better Eclipse atoned for a slightly disappointing NZ Cup run with a terrific second to Merlin in last Friday’s $200,000 Group 1 NZ Pacing free-for-all. He’s already shown a love for NZ, having won the Group 1 Auckland Cup in May. View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Chad Ormsby has had a phenomenal 12 months with horses he has retained from New Zealand Bloodstock’s Ready to Run Sales, but this week at Karaka he is hoping to go home with an empty truck. Ormsby operates Riverrock Farm out of Cambridge, where he balances training, educating and preparing horses for the sales. In the training role, Ormsby prepared Pulchritudinous to win this year’s Gr.1 New Zealand Oaks (2400m) in March after she failed to meet her $50,000 reserve in 2022. He achieved a similar feat in the Gr.3 Manawatu Classic (2100m) with Outovstock, who was passed in with a $150,000 reserve in the same year. “We don’t like taking them home, we want these horses to go on and be successful for trainers all around the world,” he said. “One thing I’d really like is a 100 percent clearance rate, so we’re getting our product out there and hopefully they can go on and do great things. “We’ve been blessed with a good couple of days so far weather-wise, and looking around the grounds, we’ve been busy and seen a lot of the big buyers. We’re always hopeful, and we’ve got a day or so to go before the sale starts, so hopefully we’ve got the right horses that people are looking for.” Among Ormsby’s nine-horse draft this year is Lot 288, a Churchill colt out of Pierro mare Bagitol. Already a trial winner under the name of Ukinno, Ormsby resisted the temptation to sell him prior to the sale, opting to support his brand with the exciting youngster. “We started with 12 and have ended up with nine who are all outstanding individuals and have had a great prep,” Ormsby said. “Any one of them I would love to be training myself. “I’m excited for all of them, but the ones that may be at the top end of the sale would be the likes of Lot 288, a Churchill colt out of Bagitol. He’s breezed in extremely good style and he’s also a trial winner, he won his trial on the first of October. “Normally when we buy horses, we buy some with a view to trial and sell them after, but with ready-to-runners, we buy them to go to the sale. This horse was always in the sale but he came up extremely well, he’s a very athletic type with speed to burn, the ability is endless. “We put him in a trial a little bit underdone, but he was good enough to win that and then breeze-up in very good style. I didn’t have to ask him to extend much at all. “It was pretty hard not taking the offers for him after that trial, but we’re looking to promote our brand and get him to the Ready To Run Sale, which we’ve done.” An eye-catcher at the breeze-ups was Lot 118, a Proisir filly closely related to recent Australian metropolitan winner Angland. “Lot 188, a Proisir filly out of Polson has been very popular since we’ve been up here at the sales and she breezed outstandingly,” Ormsby said. “I could probably start naming four or five of them and carry on for various reasons, there are some nice horses in there.” While busy at Karaka, Ormsby will be keeping close tabs on the Rotorua meeting on Tuesday, with a pair of runners including Mohi Place in the Van Dyks 1560. The Proisir gelding has finished narrowly into the placings in his first two starts this campaign, and Ormsby is hopeful he can break maidens with Tayla Mitchell claiming one kilogram off his 58.5kg impost. “They’ve been good runs and we’ve just been playing around a bit with gear for him, but he’s going to get his turn,” Ormsby said. “He will go through the grades soon enough, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was breaking maidens tomorrow.” His other representative will be Loose On Bubbles, a stayer for the future commencing his career in the Sherlock Contracting 1400, wearing the colours of co-breeders Windsor Park Stud. “He’s had the one trial this preparation to prepare, we think he could be a Derby horse so 1400 will be well short of his best, but I think we’ll see him run on and put in some sort of showing,” he said. View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
The retirement of Hong Kong megastar Golden Sixty has done nothing to slow the momentum of NZB’s Ready to Run Sale, with buyers from across Australasia and Asia converging on Karaka for the two-day sale on Wednesday and Thursday. Billed as the best sale of its kind anywhere in the world, the Ready to Run Sale has produced a long list of big-race performers headed by the great Golden Sixty. Bought for $300,000 from Riversley Park’s draft in 2017, he went on to win 26 of his 31 starts including 10 Group One triumphs. He broke Hong Kong’s all-time prizemoney record with more than HK$167 million (NZ$34 million). While Golden Sixty was retired from racing earlier this year, the Ready to Run Sale has remained in the spotlight with a series of Group One wins in Australia this spring. Ceolwulf has risen to stardom with back-to-back victories in the Gr.1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) and Gr.1 King Charles III Stakes (1600m), while Antino won the Gr.1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) and Mr Brightside and Antino delivered a one-two finish for the Ready to Run Sale in this month’s Gr.1 Champions Mile (1600m) at Flemington. Notably, both the legendary Golden Sixty and new kid on the block Ceolwulf are graduates of Riversley Park. Ceolwulf was bought for $170,000 by trainer Joe Pride and part-owner Leighton Howl in 2022. Riversley Park has been the Ready to Run Sale’s leading vendor by aggregate for all of the last seven years. Sam Beatson’s operation looms as a major player again this week with 45 two-year-olds set to go through the ring. “With Golden Sixty’s amazing career coming to an end, it’s been exciting to see another of our graduates step up and start performing on the big stage the way Ceolwulf has,” Beatson said. “Coming back as a four-year-old this spring, with Joe Pride dropping back to the mile after he performed up to 2400m at three, he’s done a great job to win a couple of big Group One races and beat quality horses like Pride Of Jenni and Fangirl. He’s exciting. “We’ve got another decent-sized draft this year with 45 for sale, and I think it’s a pretty even group. We should have a horse for all sorts of markets. I think it’s a very even line-up for such a big number. “We had even conditions at Te Rapa across the two days of breeze-ups, which is a big help, and I thought our horses all put their best foot forward and breezed up really well.” A notable member of the Riversley draft is Lot 88. The colt is by three-time champion Hong Kong sire Deep Field, while his unraced dam My Goodness is a half-sister to dual Hong Kong Horse of the Year Fairy King Prawn. “The Deep Field and Fairy King Prawn factors have created a fair bit of Hong Kong interest in that horse,” Beatson said. “He’s a lovely looking colt and has a lot going for him. He’s been very popular and very busy here at the complex, and with many of the Hong Kong buyers only making their way over here after Sunday’s races, I’m expecting that to increase. “Another member of the draft that I really like is the Proisir gelding, who I think has a lot of quality.” Catalogued as Lot 79, the Proisir gelding is a full-brother to this season’s Gr.3 Northland Breeders’ Stakes (1200m) fourth placegetter Vegas Queen. His dam is a half-sister to the dam of the A$3 million The Big Dance (1600m) winner Gringotts, while second dam Operavega is a half-sister to the dam of the legendary Winx. “But overall, it’s a very even draft and hard to pick standouts,” Beatson said. “Out of the 45, I think we’ve got at least 40 very nice horses. That’s a good position to be in.” Beatson’s cousin Jamie finished second on the vendors’ list last year under the Ohukia Lodge banner that he operates with his wife Chanel. Ohukia is back again with a 26-strong draft this year that Jamie Beatson holds in extremely high regard. “I think it’s probably the nicest draft we’ve ever brought to this sale, and by quite a bit actually,” he said. “It was a nice draft last year too, but this year we’ve got a lot of real quality horses.” A potential headline act is Lot 372, who is a full-brother to this spring’s Gr.2 Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m) and Listed Regal Roller Stakes (1200m) winner Arkansaw Kid. “Arksansaw Kid has done a great job this spring with his Group Two and Listed wins in Melbourne,” Beatson said. “His brother is an absolute belter, he’s a standout. We paid A$300,000 for him as a yearling, so we put a bit of faith in him. But we’ve always had a huge opinion of him. “We’ve also got a Zoustar (Lot 304) that breezed up really nicely. He’s a sharp horse and he’s really shown us a heap of ability. He’s a natural. “There’s also Lot 190, the Deep Field, who breezed up beautifully as well.” Eion and Megan Kemp’s Kilgravin Lodge had an amazing Ready to Run Sale last November, finishing as leading vendors by average. Their 16 two-year-olds sold for an average of just over $300,000, headed by an $800,000 colt by Harry Angel. “It was one of those sales you only dream about,” Eoin Kemp said. “All the stars aligned and it really couldn’t have gone any better. It was a ripper of a sale in general, and for us it was a very special couple of days.” The Kemps have watched with pride as that draft embarked on their racing careers. There have already been four winners, headed by the Super Seth gelding Feroce, whose seven-start career has produced two wins, a desperately close second in the Gr.1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) and a third in the Gr.3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m). Feroce was a $160,000 purchase and has quickly turned that into more than A$700,000 in stakes. “Several of our graduates from last year have already come out and performed on the track, obviously headed by what Feroce did in that Caulfield Guineas,” Kemp said. “He was a little bit unlucky there and we almost thought he had it won, but it was a terrific performance anyway.” Kilgravin will offer another well-credentialled draft of just over 30 at this year’s sale. “We’re really happy with them,” Kemp said. “They’ve all come through their preparations and the breeze-ups well, and they’re parading nicely on the complex. “I think we’ve got most markets covered, both sire-wise and type-wise. We have some very nice top-end horses for the Hong Kong and Australian markets, but also some very nice prospects for the middle and lower markets as well, which I think is important. “A couple of standouts for me would be the Deep Field (Lot 21) and the Harry Angel (Lot 306). They’re probably two of the nicest colts we’re offering. But there wouldn’t be many in our draft that I’d write off. Across the board, they’re a very nice group of horses.” Mark and Lorraine Forbes’ Kiltannon Stables will offer a select group of just under a dozen. There is particular buzz around Lot 174, who is a colt by champion Australian sire I Am Invincible out of the elite racemare Shillelagh. Herself the winner of the Gr.1 Cantala Stakes (1600m) and Gr.1 Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) at Flemington, Shillelagh’s only foal to race so far is last season’s unlucky Gr.3 Mufhasa Stakes (1400m) placegetter Irish Legacy. Lot 174 was a star performer in last month’s breeze-ups, clocking the fastest time across the two days with a slick 9.97 seconds. The second-fastest was 10.06 seconds. “That one in particular really impressed us on breeze-up day,” Lorraine Forbes told NZB. “But we’ve got a couple of other really nice colts and also some lovely fillies that we’re hoping will attract the Australian market. The success of Ready to Run horses over there at the moment has been encouraging.” View the full article
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