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After Aljay won the G3 NZ cup 2 years ago he went up 5 rating points from 78 to 83 yet despite running last in the 2023 Wellington cup he stayed unchanged at 83. Subsequently via excellent placing by his trainer he won three small open handicaps, two were 7 runner fields each with a stake of 35K, the other a 8 runner field for 50K. For each of those 3 wins he was rerated at 4 points but given the low value and quality my reckoning they should have been 2 points, therefore 6 points over-rated. So onto Perfect Scenario who ran 5th in the L 3yo Karaka Millions and for whatever weird reason got bumped up 6 rating points. He then ran 2nd last in the Derby and received no reduction. For mine, at that point over-rated 7 points. Handicapping gets out of whack when unreasonable penalties are applied earlier in a horses career. Perfect Scenario topped the TAB mile on Wednesday and only three other horses were above the minimum. Aljay headed the NZ Cup field today and there were only two other runners above the minimum, Their severe rating totally distorting the spread of weights. The Livamol run at Te Rapa last month had the two top rated horses, El Vencedor and One Bold Cat both on a rating of 103. Are we really to believe that Perfect Scenario on a rating of 107 is a better horse than those two or that Aljay on a rating of 102 is their equal?
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By Wandering Eyes · Posted
By Adam Hamilton The Aussies only snared the one win on Show Day at Addington Raceway, but it was the one that stole the week. Keayang Zahara’s mesmerizing win in the $500,000 Majestic Horse Floats LP The Ascent also capped the greatest NZ Cup Week in history for Aussie raiders, winning three of the “majors” with the 10-horse team who crossed the ditch. Swayzee did his thing, again, in last Tuesday’s IRT NZ Trotting Cup. The way he did it was just so Swayzee. Defying his daunting travel and racing schedule to lift off the canvas when local star Don’t Stop Dreaming looked to have him cold at the 100m. But it was fitting that champion Aussie trotter and global flag bearer Just Believe set the tone for the week by delivering the first big win for Australia in the $400,000 Group 1 Dominion Trot. It was little more than trackwork as Just Believe found the front and won eased down for 10th Group 1 win of his stellar career. “Harry” as he is so affectionately known was expected to repeat the dose yesterday, but even the greats aren’t unbeatable. Punching into a strong wind outside of the leader, Just Believe always looked vulnerable in the run with the explosive and classy Oscar Bonavena stalking on his back. While Harry gave a good kick rounding the home bend, old Oscar used that speed of his to snatch victory and move very close to $1 million in earnings. Just Believe was so very brave. It was only his third defeat in 22 starts since returning from Sweden last year. Each time he’s run second. With the Aussie mood dampened slightly, the spotlight moved to Keayang Zahara. Yes, she’s looked amazing winning all 11 starts in Australian, five of them at Group 1 level, but could she handle a trip to NZ so early in her career and would the Kiwis be much harder to beat? Yes and no were the answers. In one of the spine-tingling moments Addington has seen in many years, Keayang Zahara literally left her rivals standing when driver Jason Lee said go on the home turn. The margin was an increasing eight lengths, but that’s while Lee was letting her coast to the line under her own steam as he savoured the moment and flourished his whip to the appreciative Addington crowd. Everyone knew they had seen something special. It sounds disrespectful to Just Believe to say she’s the most exciting trotter in this part of the world, but she is. He’s still the best, but it won’t be long until she’s hunting for him, Before then, Kiwis will get to see her again in the flesh. Trainer Paddy Lee confirmed Keayang Zahara would stay on for the $140,000 Group 1 NZ Trotting Oaks at Addington on November 29. She’s $1.08 to land her seventh Group 1 victory in the race. But, staying beyond that for the Derby now seems unlikely. After decades of the best Kiwis heading to Australia and plundering our biggest races, the tide has turned, at least for now. And, as an Aussie, it’s great to see. View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Another Prophet ridden by Ethan Brown wins the Group 1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield Racecourse. (Photo by Reg Ryan/Racing Photos) Australia’s top trainers have come to the fore in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas, with Another Prophet ($34) for Ciaron Maher taking out the three-year-old fillies contest ahead of the Chris Waller-trained Aeliana ($3) and Too Darn Lizzie ($26) from the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott stable. Too Darn Lizzie led the field at a strong tempo, followed by Stage ‘N’ Screen ($8), Supercilious ($41), and the eventual winner, who settled in the one-one position and received the best run of the race. Horse racing bookmakers favourite Aeliana settled well back in the field with other market fancies Lovelycut ($11) and Benagil ($11). Turning for home, Too Darn Lizzie drifted off the inside rail and gave a strong kick, but Another Prophet loomed largely on her outside, and she took over with 200m to go. Matisse ($16) and Aeliana let down with their finishing bursts, with the former inconveniencing the latter slightly, before James McDonald asked for the ultimate effort in the final 150m. To her credit, Aeliana picked herself up, and she rattled home down the middle of the track but left her run too late and couldn’t pick up Another Prophet, who claimed a half-length win in the feature event at Caulfield. 2024 Thousand Guineas replay – Another Prophet https://horsebetting.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Caulfield-2024-Group-1-Caulfield-Guineas-16112024-Another-Prophet-Ciaron-Maher-Ethan-Brown.mp4 Ciaron Maher was on course to speak about the victory. “We knew she was on the right trajectory,” Maher said. “We thought there was a little bit of improvement in her coming out of her last run and she actually ran a peak last start so that gave us the confidence going forward. “It was obviously a bit of a roll at the stumps but that was the science behind it. “She’d thrived and as I said to Brownie going out ‘well, I think we can win this.’ “He rode her so confidently, it was a very comfortable watch. “(I was confident) the whole way. “I was actually just watching Brownie and wanting her to drop her head after the first furlong or so. “Once I saw her nose drop I thought ‘gee, we’re in business here’. “Just fantastic, Brownie. “He’s a good mate, we’ve had some great wins together and hopefully there’s plenty more in store.” Ethan Brown was confident in his filly, and he spoke about that confidence in his post-race interview. “Her whole build-up… at the start, she was leading up half-mile trials and doing it upside down so it was a matter of teaching her,” Brown said. “She was a bit wound up at Moonee Valley and I think that is when we started thinking about her stretching to a mile. “She’s always had good ability and certainly with the right trainer. “I think she’s just progressed and what gave me more confidence was when we got in the yard and Ciaron said tucked up again since last start. “Cantered to the gates and it felt on. “Lobbed in a beautiful spot. “She was a bit keen early, I was a bit worried about that, but as Ciaron said one she dropped her head she travelled sweet and built into it beautifully and showed her true colours today. “A bit of cover was essential so I have to contain her early and once we got that first half right, it was easy from then.” “It hasn’t sunk in yet. “I’ve only ridden five (Group 1s) and they still all feel like my first. I’ve got a long way to catch J-Mac.” Horse racing news View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Champion Fillies’ Day 2024. Photo: Western Racepix The Ascot Summer Carnival officially gets underway on Saturday with Champions Fillies’ where a nine-race meeting is set down for decision at Ascot Racecourse on Saturday, November 16, 2024. The Group 3 WA Champion Fillies Stakes (1600m) is the feature of the day and is set to jump at 4:15pm local time. With plenty of key form races leading into the Group 1 races over in the west, catch up on all the race replays, results and dividends provided by top horse racing bookmakers here. Free Ascot Race Replays & Full Results 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Race 1 – Petaluma Handicap (1400 METRES) Race Replay & Results https://horsebetting.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Ascot-Race-1-Petaluma-Handicap-16112024-Miss-Skyhigh-Grant-Alana-Williams-William-Pike.mp4 Place No. Silks Horse Trainer Jockey Fixed Odds (W) Fixed Odds (P) 1st 3 Miss Skyhigh Grant & Alana Williams William Pike $3.80 $1.50 2nd 2 Madame Magic Daniel & Ben Peace Chris Parnham $2.50 3rd 11 Belle Journee Chris Stelmach Shaun O’Donnell $5.00 4th 7 Miss Rockjoy Susan Olive Jarrod Noske Exotic Bet Type Results Dividend Quinella 3-2 $10.30 Exacta 3-2 $16.90 Duet 3-2 $5.60 Duet 3-11 $12.40 Duet 2-11 $26.10 Trifecta 3-2-11 $379.30 First Four 3-2-11-7 $4,097.80 Horse racing news View the full article
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