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By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Editor's Note: the tables mentioned in the piece below have all been inserted into the article individually in alphabetical order. Please see those for reference. As an Englishman, I can assure my friends in the Bluegrass that America does not have a monopoly on political division. But in this rancorous age it is a comfort, either side of the water, that a mutual love of the horse can keep people not just talking, but outright friendly, who might otherwise only be yelling at each other. It is not too often that our parochial, obsessive community can offer a template for the wider world, but we can cheerfully attest that finding a passion in common is a great help in resisting demonisation. That being so, even those in our community most dismayed by the general tenor of the current administration will gratefully acknowledge its contribution to the unprecedented buoyancy of the bloodstock market. True, they may feel rather more comfortable with a single, specific boon-namely, that lavish tax break on depreciation-than with a broader sense that this is only one of many opportunities for the rich to become richer. But even liberals can be hard-headed when it comes to business. The cold fact is that our industry depends on investment by the affluent and, one way or another, that is exactly what has driven the world's biggest yearling auction to record levels over the past two weeks. Sure, there are other factors. For instance, albeit too unevenly to be healthy for the sport nationally, there are several circuits where purses now dignify a middle-market investment with the possibility of viability on the racetrack. That feels particularly important when so many people are breeding for the sales ring, rather than the winner's circle, however baffling the notion that these might somehow be competing objectives. It's notable that the volume of yearlings being sold is higher than a decade ago, even as the foal crop has been going the other way. And a higher proportion than ever is being sired by unproven sires, most of whom we know will fail. But in a market like this, a lot of people will be too busy counting their winnings to heed such old-school anxieties. After all, this really does seem to be one of those rare cases where the overflow from the top of the market can filter downwards. The Keeneland September Sale famously covers all bases. But we can fill out the picture further by combining its trade with that already reported by Fasig-Tipton during the summer, between the July Sale in Lexington and the Select and New York Sales at Saratoga. Those auctions had already shown the way the wind was blowing, and the cumulative numbers are simply dazing. So far this year, as Table A shows, the aggregate cost of American yearlings through the ring has rocketed past $650 million, from $528.6 million at this point in 2024. The precise gain of $122,866,900, year on year, works out at an astonishing 23.2 percent. (If you include post-sale transactions, moreover, the overall market has soared from $546,881,000 to $673,337,400.) The average ring transaction last year had achieved a strong advance, from $152,774 and $153,282 in 2022 and 2023, to $164,570. This time round, the American yearling has typically cost you $190,711, an increase of 15.9 percent. It was at the apex, naturally, that the most lurid gains were posted. Take the number of seven-figure hips, as measured in Table B. In this respect, the Select Sale at Saratoga had maintained its recent pressure on Book 1 at Keeneland in quite spectacular fashion, tipping $100 million for the first time. Having mustered between only two and five “million-dollar babies” between 2016 and 2021, this auction had averaged a dozen across the three staged between 2022 and 2024. This year, there were 25! How on earth could Keeneland respond to that? After all, they had posted 36 millionaires last year, up from 30 in the previous two editions. Well, this time they have processed no fewer than 56. These, moreover, were claimed by 34 unique buyers-another record, and an obviously encouraging one. (The 120 prospectors who spent $1 million or more were up from 96 in 2024.) True, such frantic demand at the top end can be a symptom of a market polarisation. In 2018, which proved to be the height of the pre-Covid market, 32 seven-figure yearlings collectively made $42,375,000, accounting for 8.9 percent of yearling trade up to this point of the calendar. Over the last three years, equivalent sales represented 11.2, 11.3 and then 12.8 percent of trade. But the astounding total of 81 this time round, valued at $119,275,000, weighs in at 18.3 percent of the overall market. And, yes, all these giddy headlines will be fairly cheerless reading for the many vendors who found themselves left holding the baby, as will happen eternally wherever bloodstock is sold. But the core indices at Keeneland sustained wholesome gains on what had already been a vibrant market a year previously: averages marching up by double-digit percentages across all 12 sessions; and the median doing the same on all bar the final day. But the buyback rate, at 22.3 percent, managed only a marginal improvement on 22.7 percent last year-compared with 20.2 percent in the previous edition. While there were doubtless some who became a little overexcited, in setting their reserves, a renewed pragmatism evidently contributed to post-sale transactions exceeding $20 million. A Changing of the Guard Having divided the top six lots at Saratoga equally with the incumbent champion, Gun Runner made a quite astounding statement in topping each of the first four sessions at Keeneland. Even as the indefatigable Into Mischief strolls towards his seventh consecutive title, there is no mistaking a conspicuous market momentum towards two younger stallions, the other being Not This Time, whose upgraded mares are only now cycling through. Between Saratoga and Keeneland, the younger guns had 17 seven-figure sales apiece, ahead of the champion on 10. Ageism is a familiar, self-fulfilling vice of the market and its exponents must beware a horse as freakish in libido and fertility as in every other respect. But while Into Mischief's blend of quality and quantity should maintain his clear lead in the general sires' table, Not This Time and Gun Runner are laying down a marker in their contest for second. They have 17 and 16 stakes winners apiece this year, respectively from 265 and 252 starters, compared with 19 for Into Mischief from 411. Two marvelous veterans, Tapit and Curlin, have this year been joined by their respective sons Constitution and Good Magic with four million-dollar babies apiece; while at Keeneland the venerable Ghostzapper seized the opportunity he had been presented by the peerless Nursery Place team by selling his half-brother to Ruling Court for $1.2 million. The latter's sire meanwhile appears to be too sensational a success in Europe for his own good, albeit a filly at Keeneland fell only one bid short of adding another seven-figure sale to his $1.4 million colt at Saratoga. If it were only practicable, I suspect that some of Justify's yearlings could be profitably “pinhooked” as soon as Tattersalls next month! As it is, the obvious solution is for European programs to import these curiously undervalued animals themselves. Between Saratoga and Keeneland, the millionaires' row reads like this: Gun Runner and Not This Time, 17; Flightline and Into Mischief, 10; Constitution, Curlin, Good Magic and Tapit, 4; Life Is Good, Nyquist and Uncle Mo, 2; Bolt d'Oro, Ghostzapper, Jackie's Warrior, Justify and Mandaloun, 1. Corniche Catching the Eye Having entertained mares commensurate with his fee, Flightline is demonstrably being backed to replicate the sensational talent he showed (albeit only for a few minutes in total) on the track. Like any other rookie, however, he will start with a clean slate once those babies get to the gate. No point rehearsing yet again the perils and paradoxes created by the commercial market's obsession with fresh blood. For now, let's just have a look at the winners and losers in what-too often-proves their only meaningful examination: whether or not they can make a fast buck for a breeder. Table C admittedly contains one or two deeply contentious columns. There's limited value, for instance, in citing how a sire's yearling median stands up to conception fee, when you must pay the same to board a mare and foal, and to prep a yearling, regardless of whether you have paid $200,000 for Flightline or $7,500 for one of the less glamorous names. On that basis, the cheaper stallions jolly well better be achieving a higher multiple! But you can factor all that in. For the little it may be worth, we've also noted the percentage difference between weanling and yearling averages, as a potential steer on the kind of physical progress that a pinhooker might look for. Again, there are obvious caveats. Taking a median from just eight (extremely lucrative) weanlings is hardly an adequate baseline for Life Is Good, whose yearlings are doing all they should at market. Conversely, a sire who sent some disappointing weanlings to market last fall can achieve a major percentage improvement without beginning to pay off the keep and sales prep. All that said, I think you can legitimately glimpse one or two nuggets of promise. Corniche, in particular, deserves some attention after achieving a pretty stellar median of $150,000. His weanlings had hit a median of $80,000, so his yearlings have been building nicely from what was already a solid base. These are encouraging returns for a horse standing this year at just $15,000, half his opening fee. He also found a home for no fewer than 55 of 62 yearlings offered. That's another slippery index, in that RNAs sometimes reflect the high opinion of breeders, whereas some sires process a higher percentage because people can't get the stock off their hands quick enough. But his yields suggest that Corniche simply had plenty of people eager to meet the expectations of vendors. His family has some pretty left-field seeding, and the horses he beat in a brief career subsequently obtained limited resonance on his behalf. But we've seen all that before, with successful stallions, and it will be interesting to see whether these straws in the wind lead to anything more meaningful once Corniche starts to send his first troops into battle next year. The post Breathtaking Yearling Market Soars 23% appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Very few debutantes are capable of winning a Listed contest against established peers, but that's exactly what the Joseph O'Brien-trained Yaupon De Replay (Yaupon) achieved on Monday evening in Fairyhouse's Ballyhane Blenheim Stakes. Sent off at 20-1 for the six-furlong feature, the daughter of Spendthrift Farm's exciting first-crop sire was able to overcome any greenness under Chris Hayes and swamp her rivals a furlong out en route to a neck success from Chicago Call (Oasis Dream). “We liked what we saw at home, but you are never sure starting off in that company, it can be tough,” the winning trainer said. “I said to Chris to educate her early and have her finishing off and she showed a big kick late on, you'd have to be very impressed with her.” “I'd say they went a nice gallop and that helped her to relax but still it's always hard to win from anywhere behind mid-field here, especially on debut. She's a nice filly. We felt like she was working like it was worth a shot and we thought that she'd learn a lot in the race.” “She's an exciting filly for the future. After today you can look at things like the Breeders' Cup, she's an American-bred filly and she's fast. She has a lot of options.” Yaupon De Replay was knocked down to Carriganog for $150,000 at this year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2yo Sale. The post Breeders’ Cup On The Cards For Debut Stakes Winner Yaupon De Replay appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article -
Agree. And the Derby ( IMO) has also been made less relevant by the same factors. -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
“I think this filly's cheating on me.” Well, if that was the opinion of a Hall of Fame trainer, who could argue? Least of all a woman, in the male-dominated Bluegrass of the mid-1970s. But Headley Bell remembers that when Frank Whiteley Jr. sent Nicosia (Gallant Romeo) home to Mill Ridge, his late mother Alice Chandler was not ready to give up. After all, this was a daughter of Nicoma (Nashua), whose previous foal had just won a Grade I; and Alice's husband, Dr. John Chandler, suggested that maybe the filly had simply been bleeding. “This was before anybody really thought about stuff like that,” Bell recalls now. “So they give her some time, and then mom brings her out and starts training the filly herself. Takes her to Chicago, where I end up being her groom, my senior year at Vanderbilt. And we win the Sheridan, and the Matron, and mom is suddenly the first woman to own, breed and train a $100,000 stakes winner.” That maintained what became an unblemished record for the mare: five foals, five stakes winners. Sadly, Nicoma died of strangles after being sold to Tom Gentry to be bred to Northern Dancer. But her name would live on. Not just because of those foals, albeit they achieved a literal longevity: Nicosia herself lived to 34, while a half-brother won 18 of 122 (!) starts. First and foremost, Nicoma's name was preserved through the advisory service founded by a young man entering an old business at a time of bewildering change. Bell had been learning the ropes under Jim Brady at Elmendorf when one of his mother's hardboot friends was outflanked on a stallion deal. Instead of just complaining about upstart competition, they urged Bell to set up Nicoma Bloodstock in 1979 so that the old school might at least know what was happening around them. “I don't want to do that kind of thing,” Bell protested. “It's like being a car salesman.” “Well, do it differently.” Nicosia wins the Sheridan Handicap for trainer Alice H. Chandler | courtesy of Mill Ridge Farm Eventually Bell would also take over management of Mill Ridge itself, and over the years there has inevitably been some crossover. But the margin that persisted can be judged from the fact that the farm's recent celebration of a 41st Grade I winner since 2000 reaches a still more remarkable 54 when combined with Nicoma. Obviously both had many others before then, too, not least the two Arc winners (Trempolino in 1987, Suave Dancer in 1991) that helped to put Nicoma on the map. But it feels apt that the Mill Ridge landmark was brought up by a horse–Test Score (Lookin At Lucky) in the GI Belmont Derby–homebred by the Amerman family, longstanding clients of both the farm and Nicoma. “It's been a long time, though,” Bell notes. “I mean, you're talking about 40 years. It has been, and remains, an evolution. But that was my directive: do it differently. And that's what we have tried to do.” He's the first to stress his debt, from the outset, to clients and collaborators. Certainly he owed much, in establishing Nicoma, to the mentorship of Bill O'Neill and Ray Barnes; and he always had a sounding board, around the home hearth, in his mother and stepfather. But while Sir Ivor would always remain the foundation stone, for the farm itself, another dimension of the Alice Chandler legacy is less obvious. “So many great women were naturally attracted to mom, wanted to be a part of her story,” Bell remarks. “Maggie Carver was probably first. Shirley Taylor. Nancy Dillman. Tolie Otto, with us 40 years. Lynn Schiff. And of course Jerry Amerman. It has been a great thread of Mill Ridge, if you look back, and truly all because of mom. “And then of course John Chandler was a great partner in the whole process. From his time in Britain he knew all the people around the Arabs: Tom Jones, Robert Acton, James Delahooke, Guy Harwood. They needed a presence here, and knew they could trust us. Then George Harris and I became very good friends. So I ended up with this incredible mix of demand and supply. In those days, remember, stallion access was a big thing. Seasons might be $1 million, no guarantee.” Headley Bell | Keeneland It feels very different today, with some books nearing 300, but back then restricted access would lock in mare quality. True, the whole environment was already changing. And Bell is proud, looking back at the explosion of commercialism, to have brought together the likes of Ted Bassett, D.G. Van Clief, William S. Farish and Buddy Bishop in laying down a code of ethics for agents and consultants. “You still had the old hardboots around, guys like Henry White, and mom was a founder member of the KTA,” Bell recalls. “But there were all those commercial people coming through, and then huge issues like CEM, all sorts of ups and downs. It certainly wasn't a straight line. It went up and up, and then crashed. And all the collateral the banks were holding turned into nothing, because suddenly there wasn't a market. There had to be a real reboot.” Fortunately Bell had never abandoned his first vocation, as horseman. So whatever boom-or-bust cycles might dictate the commercial environment, he could always be grateful for a breed-to-race core: early on with Peter Goulandris and Paul de Moussac, in Europe, right through to programs such as that operated by the Amermans today. “So that was really the foundation play,” Bell explains. “Not just that other side, of commercial revenue, but to be able to assist with the horse side. Sharpen Up was a blue-collar horse, and we ended up breeding Trempolino right out of the box. And then I'd managed to associate with Lillie Webb at Xalapa, and we bred Suave Dancer right afterwards.” As already mentioned, controlled access itself guaranteed quality. As such, it feels unsurprising that Bell should have become so absorbed by the cultivation of families. “I had never previously been very academic but when I got into this business, I became a real student,” he says. “A student of pedigree. I started noticing all these different things, like Diesis with Roberto. So I started tracking it, keeping records.” And–again something that has changed–there remained few short cuts for a diligent researcher. Much of it was done longhand, albeit Bell eagerly subscribed to some of the pioneering tools, from cumbersome almanacs to primitive software. “It was certainly all developing,” he reflects. “But part of being a student was to realize that just because a horse was by a particular sire, it wouldn't necessarily be emphasizing that particular line. So you try to recognize the clues, whether color, size, distance, ability. And then we started tracking trends, how stallions ebb and flow, and trying to catch them in those cycles. Putting all these different things together was a real process of evolution.” With their ubiquity eroding such edge as “nicks” may ever have offered, Bell found himself delving deeper into mare produce records, and all the ancillary variables. “There are so many links in the chain,” he says. “Where a horse is raised, how it's managed, its early training. And, with pedigrees, I'm always looking at the entire blend. I love to see Nureyev wherever I can get it, or even Hyperion–and maybe try to double it up. Basically it's about putting the ingredients in the stew and making it the best it can be. Oscar Performance | Sarah Andrew “The commercial drivers weren't quite as extreme as now. But I was always a value player. Dynaformer, for instance: here was a $5,000 rogue, outperforming, moving mares up. It was about going out there and being willing, trying not to compromise. Because that way you found not just the Dynaformers but also the Into Mischiefs, the Tapits. We played those until they became too expensive. But when a window closes, you pull out and look for the next one. Because they're out there. Obviously it helped that most of my people weren't commercial breeders. They can use a horse on the bubble. I sent 10 mares to Arrogate when he was $50,000. He was still, then, whatever he was going to be a couple of years before.” Mill Ridge's return to the stallion game has itself proved exemplary in that respect. Oscar Performance, now wildly oversubscribed, was down to 63 mares in his fourth season–and that included plenty of “home” support. “Just think about that, pushing him up that hill,” Bell says. “Sometimes that contrarian way of thinking can work out in a market. Well, maybe not contrarian. But we've always tried to find value. Here was a proper racehorse, but a turf horse. And we managed to beat the system. And that's healthy for our industry, that it doesn't always have to be one type.” The whole ride with Oscar, from foaling to covering shed, has been all the more fulfilling because of the mutual trust and respect between the Amerman family and their counselor Bob Feld, on the one hand, and Bell and his son Price, livewire General Manager at Mill Ridge since 2020, on the other. “That's why the farm's 41st Grade I means so much,” Bell emphasizes. “Because it was Test Score. To work with people like these, with Jerry Amerman who's so intuitive, is a true privilege. She was a champion dog breeder, she understands animals. The success they've had, with a 10-mare program, is incredible. So none of this is ever about me. This was their moment. Every single thing we achieve is because we work as a team.” That said, Test Score is a Mill Ridge graduate and the mating did have Nicoma fingerprinting. “I mean, we could only use Lookin At Lucky because the Amermans want to breed runners,” Bell acknowledges. “The mare, Joy of Learning (Kitten's Joy), is out of Mrs. Amerman's favorite, Miss Chapin (Royal Academy), who was very talented but not sound, won her only start. And Joy of Learning was actually offset in her knee, only won an off-the-turf maiden. Jerry Amerman | Keeneland “Lookin At Lucky was a horse who just outkicked his coverage. Obviously with these very large books nowadays, statistically you really need to look at relative performance. I had always been a huge Smart Strike fan, all our clients had shares in him. And then, being out of a Belong To Me mare, that gave me some Danzig. It's becoming harder to get that. Anyway the result was a value but proven stallion, who just wasn't ever given a true chance.” This is not an industrial operation. Bell reckons to advise on no more than 75 matings every spring. Yet since the turn of the century there have been three Horses of the Year, three GI Kentucky Derby winners, 13 at the Breeders' Cup. There are no definitive rules, of course: one of those Horses of the Year, Bricks and Mortar (Giant's Causeway), was just about the only yearling George Strawbridge sold in the 30 years Bell worked with him. “But I can't say it enough, it's all been about the people you're working with,” Bell reiterates. “Just quality people, all the way through. But while we're only ever a piece of it, things have happened more often than they should. We've been truly blessed, and often with sires–Animal Kingdom, Point of Entry–that haven't done too much otherwise. It's about navigating a way through, rather than just depending on some nick that everybody thinks they know. “Our role is to fulfill dreams. Just think of that, what a thing to be able to say. But that is the truth of it. And we've done it a lot. It is extraordinary–especially, as our visitors remind us every day, to be able to do this out here and working with our son. So all of it's a gift, and we celebrate it every day.” The post Mill Ridge Landmark Only Half The Story For Nicoma, Farm Celebrates 41st Grade I Winner Since 2000 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article
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