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By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Peter Alafonginis, owner, Northern Tier Farm I foresee only approximately five major tracks open in the USA and a few smaller one-mile tracks for the second-tier horse. They will have, dirt, grass and synthetic surfaces at each of the major venues. And their lesser counterparts will hopefully have a combination of surfaces as well. Steeplechase venues will grow in number and quality, incorporating a country-club environment with clubhouse and parimutuel betting. These facilities will combine other aspects of the Thoroughbreds' life after racing. Equitation, shows, hunt events, even polo on the same ground. Hotel, eateries, a golf course as well in these more rural locations. Betting will expand as will the technology on the horse and jockey, documenting the well being and the race live from each entrant. Like other sports, people can pick their favorite and be a part of that classic horse's experience as say a fan of an NFL team. Most gambling on daily races will be done remotely. Only weekend racing seeing any major attendance and that might be seasonal rather than year-round as well. Horses need a rest, too! It is a bright future and it will require development of fan bases across the country rather than a reliance of slots for purse money. The post Racing in 2036: Peter Alafonginis appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Motorious, winner of the 2024 Joe Hernandez Stakes (G2T), will try to add a second victory in the race Dec. 29 at Santa Anita Park.View the full article -
By Murray Fish · Posted
*Best* small to medium Club in NZ Lead by a President who bats on the front foot! -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Over the last few weeks, the TDN has asked “racing's best and brightest” to give predictions regarding what the state of the sport will be ten years from now. Considering that most of the responses came from industry insiders who derive their living from the sport and cannot afford for things to worsen, the responses were not that surprising. Many projected a rosy future for the sport. The same sport that has many problems, some of them that will be very difficult to solve. What was lacking in the series was the perspective of a gambler. That was solved when horseplayer Mark Stanton joined the party and gave his opinions about the future of the industry from the perspective of a gambler. It needs to be noted that Stanton complained on X that the series had yet to include any horseplayers. To the TDN's credit, the publication reached out to Stanton and asked him to contribute. While Stanton was careful to acknowledge that there are some signs that racing will make meaningful and positive changes within the next 10 years, he was rightfully concerned that the next 10 years will see a further erosion of handle because retail players will continue to leave the sport. He wrote: “Retail gamblers on racing go away in the U.S. as they are completely ignored and priced out from large takeouts and other things to make wagers on. The large retail bettors that probably make up 50% of the retail wagering, start telling the smaller ones, “If I can't survive on rebates of being a 'high roller,' you have no shot.” Truer words have never been spoken…or written. The elephant in the room, and the one that was ignored by the majority of people who wrote in to voice their opinions about racing's future, is CAW play. For reasons that I will get to, racing can and will survive the CAW menace, but the continued dominance of the betting pools by a small group of high-rollers who receive exorbitant rebates is going to continue to decimate betting handle, which can only mean purse cuts and the likelihood that even more racetracks will close. In 2003, with simulcasting booming and ADWs just coming on the scene, total handle in the U.S. peaked at $15.18 billion. In 2024, the figure was $11.26 billion. On the surface, that's a decrease of about $4 billion. The cumulative rate of inflation from 2003 to present has been 76.2 percent, meaning that, if handle had kept up with inflation, the 2024 number should be about $26.75 billion. Instead, when inflation is added in, handle has dropped by nearly 57 percent over the last 21 years. From 2015 to 2018, there were actually minor increases in handle. In 2021, year-over-year handle rose by 11.8 percent, but that was an outlier considering the 2021 numbers were going up against Covid-affected numbers in 2020. Since handle has fallen every year. Through the first three quarters of 2025, handle is down by 2.11 percent. And where would handle be without the billions being pumped into the system by the CAW players. Some have estimated that those players account for about 30 to 35 percent of all dollars wagered in the U.S. If they weren't contributing so much money into the pools, it's almost unmanageable how far handle would have fallen. And that's the problem: this is not sustainable. The retail player, whether they bet $2 a race or $2,000 a race, is being forced out of the game by the CAW players, who have such an edge that they have effectively driven up the takeout rate for everyone else. Most horseplayers expect to lose and play the game because they love it and love the mental challenge that handicapping presents. But neither do they expect to get buried, and that's what is happening. “Retail gamblers on racing go away in the U.S. as they are completely ignored and priced out from large takeouts and other things to make wagers on,” Stanton wrote. While some racing associations, particularly NYRA, have taken small steps to keep the CAW players in check, this is a problem for which there is no solution. The tracks cannot do without the betting handle that comes in from CAW players, even if it means that accepting CAW money is driving the everyday customer out of the game. They have painted themselves into the proverbial corner. To further complicate matters, NYRA, The Stronach Group and Churchill Downs all have ownership stakes in betting platforms used by CAW players. They are likely to continue to cater to those players, even when they know the effect that has on their retail customers. Between now and 2036, the problem is only going to worsen. With the minnows leaving the game, the sharks will be left to feast on the other sharks. Sooner or later, the smallest and least successful CAW players will also be driven out of the market. Then what? We will be left with CAW players facing off against other CAW players. There will always be some regular bettors left, but they will surely be betting less and may focus primarily on racing's biggest events and meets, Del Mar, Saratoga, the Triple Crown, the Breeders' Cup. There's no way around this. Handle is going to continue to plummet and will reach alarmingly low numbers by 2036. That's going to mean smaller purses, even smaller foal crops and fewer racetracks. Here's still another problem: Horseplayers are an aging group, with many of them falling in love with the sport and the gambling game years ago when everything was so much simpler and the savvy bettor actually had a chance of making some money. As these players are dying off, they are not being replaced. For the twenty-somethings who have the gambling gene, it's all about sports betting, which is spreading like wild fire. With high takeouts and a serious learning curve and without fixed odds, racing will never be able to compete with sports betting, especially when it comes to younger gamblers. According to the American Gaming Association, Americans legally bet a total of $149.90 billion on sports in 2024. That's a far cry from the $11.2 billion bet on racing in 2024. The good news is that handle really doesn't matter the way it used to. With the major exception being California, racing in nearly every state is heavily subsidized by revenues from casinos and slot machines. The poster child for this is Parx, where it is estimated that revenue from slot machines accounts for nearly 90 percent of all money that goes into the purse fund. While the level of betting at the Kentucky tracks is still healthy, they would not be having $100,000 maiden special weight races at Turfway Park without the considerable amount of money that flows in from Historical Horse Racing machines. Kentucky has nothing to worry about. In a state where horse racing and breeding is a huge economic force, the HHR subsidies are going nowhere. But what about other states? Is it only a matter of time before some state governments come to the conclusion that there are better ways to spend the casino money than on horse racing. Lowering property races? Making tuition costs more affordable for students who stay in-state to go to college? Raising the salaries of policemen and firemen? Etc., etc. So, as not to be a total Debby Downer, there are things to look forward to over the next 10 years. The Triple Crown, particularly the GI Kentucky Derby, and the Breeders' Cup, have never been more popular. Young people love to get dressed up and party at these events (though there's no indication that they bet or will become regular fans). Racing in Kentucky is thriving. The same can be said for Oaklawn Park. The sport has done a much better job of keeping horses out of the slaughter pipeline. (Though it still has a lot of work to do). Maybe this will be the era where racing finds a way to form a marriage with sports betting and the Gen-Z sports player can make a parlay wager on the Kentucky Derby and the Knicks at minus 3 1/2 points? In one form or another, the sport will survive, and not just through 2036, but for years to come. But, slots subsidies or no slots subsidies, the very backbone of this sport has always been pari-mutuel handle. And, largely due to the CAW factor, handle is sure to keep falling. Looking ahead, that is racing's biggest problem, and I only wish there was a viable, obvious solution. There is not. The post Week in Review: Racing in 2036 – The Declining Handle is the Biggest Threat appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Museum Mile capped a busy and successful 3-year-old season with a victory over older foes in the Arima Kinen (G1T) Dec. 28 at Nakayama Racecourse.View the full article
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