Saturday specials - Tips from the big bookies – Day 1 of The Championships 2018
A day at the races at Randwick in 1936.
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Racenet
06 April 2018
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Racenet's stable of bookies have come to the fore with their selections for a big weekend of racing.
The bagmen have done the form and provided their thoughts on Saturday's Group I Doncaster Mile at Randwick, offered their best and value bets as well as the horses that they think can't win and where the money is going at the major meetings around the country.
Here is this week’s edition of 'Saturday specials– Tips from the big bookies'.
Christian Jantzen - Sportsbet
DONCASTER MILE – KEMENTARI – Race 9 No.9 (Sydney)
Has been the dominant three-year-old this autumn and looks beautifully placed on 51.5kg. Should get a lovely run from the inside gate with the in-form Brenton Avdulla in the saddle, he’s hard to beat.
BEST – HARMATTAN – Race 10 No.4 (Sydney)
Has improved at each start so far in her career. She produced a scintillating finish at Moonee Valley last start and looks well suited stepping up to 2000m. Expecting her to be a nightmare to hold out.
VALUE – SAMBRO – Race 2 No.6 (Sydney)
He has clearly come back in good order since being gelded. Getting the positive jockey change and can push forward in a race with little speed. I am confident to take the risk at his current price.
LAY – LUVALUVA – Race 10 No.1 (Sydney)
Looks incredibly well found off an average win last start. She’s conceding a lot of weight to all her rivals and will need to produce something special to win. Happy to risk at the current price.
BACKED – TCHAIKOVSKY – Race 6 No.7 (Sydney) Peter and Paul Snowden won the race last year with Invader and the punters think that they can repeat the dose. Tchaikovsky has been $17 into $9.50 and is holding 30 percent of the entire hold so far.
Matthew Steed - Bet365
DONCASTER MILE – D’ARGENTO – Race 9 No.16 (Sydney)
He went super last start in the Rosehill Guineas when covering extra ground. As long as he takes up a positive position, the drop back to 1600m shouldn’t be a problem and he’ll be hard to beat.
BEST – PERIBSEN – Race 5 No.11 (Sydney)
He did a bit of work last start to sit outside the lead it looks like he will not have that trouble here. Stepping up to the 2600m looks perfect so he’ll be hard to run down in the straight.
VALUE – MONGOLIANCONQUEROR – Race 7 No.4 (Sydney)
Hit the line well last start in the Rosehill Guineas to suggest the 2400m wont pose an issue. That being his first Australian start off three weeks and with a similar field engaged, great value at around the $13 quote.
LAY – REDZEL – Race 8 No.1 (Sydney)
He won well last start but rightly so against a field much weaker than this. Don’t want to take too much away from him as he is a champion sprinter but a great opportunity to take him on at the short price.
BACKED – REDZEL – Race 8 No.1 (Sydney)
Holding his quote around the $2.30 but he’s without a doubt been the best backed. Coming off the back of a short-priced victory, punters think he can do it again here in what is a harder contest.
Matt Duncan - Ladbrokes.com.au
DONCASTER MILE – ARBEITSAM – Race 9 No.13 (Sydney)
He carries only 50.5kg and will make his own luck on the speed. Should be strong at the end of the mile after saluting over 2000m last start. The $26 looks a good value gamble.
BEST – RUETTIGER – Race 8 No.5 (Toowoomba)
Transferred to Ben Currie at the end of last campaign and ran two cracking races at Listed level. Has been set for this race first-up and with Jeff Lloyd to steer, looks like a great bet.
VALUE – RAIDO – Race 8 No.4 (Toowoomba)
Broke a long run of outs last start when he won at the Sunshine Coast. This is harder but likes the wet and will box seat from barrier with Matt McGillivray on board. The $11 looks great value.
LAY – LUVALUVA – Race 10 No.1 (Sydney)
Giving away plenty of weight and is only here because of a setback leading up to the Vinery Stud Stakes last week. Afterthoughts combined with problems are a recipe to get beat.
BACKED – HONEY TOAST – Race 7 No.4 (Toowoomba)
The punters were quick to snap up the $6 as the Ben Currie-trained galloper looks to replicate its victory in this same race two years ago. The field isn’t overly strong so expect a big run.
Clint Wallis - Neds
DONCASTER MILE – HUMIDOR – Race 9 No.1 (Sydney)
Terrific when first-up in the Futurity, then ran over the top of the small field in the Blamey off a slow tempo. Group I winner over this distance in the Makybe Diva back in the spring.
BEST – HOLY SNOW – Race 2 No.1 (Sydney)
He’s had an excellent preparation thus far, with a win and a placing at Group II level, as well as a solid fifth in the Australian Guineas. The form from his second placing in the Phar Lap gives him an edge.
VALUE – BURRUM’S BUZZ – Race 9 No.12 (Bendigo)
He hit the line well at Flemington first-up, especially given the bias towards leaders on the day. Has a good second-up record, having only missed the placings once in four attempts.
LAY – ACE HIGH – Race 7 No.1 (Sydney)
Had been racing well this campaign in the Rosehill Guineas. Although it wasn’t his preferred surface we would’ve liked to see a bit more from him. This is a quality line-up and the current odds on offer look skinny.
BACKED – REDZEL – Race 8 No.1 (Sydney)
Punters have found it easy to latch onto the best sprinter in the land. Has been holding solid at around the $2.30 mark all week and we’re finding it difficult to write a bet for any other runner in the race.
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Anthony Kirk - PalmerBet
DONCASTER MILE – KEMENTARI – Race 9 No.9 (Sydney)
Strong through the line in the George Ryder when finishing less than two lengths off Winx, meets Happy Clapper2.5kg better and gets the good draw. I would be surprised if he isn’t fighting out the finish.
BEST – DON’T GIVE A DAMN – Race 4 No.3 (Sydney)
Strong win last start and looked as though he would only improve from the run. I am expecting him to dominate from up front and prove too hard to run down.
VALUE – DISSOLUTION – Race 2 No.7 (Sydney)
Since being gelded and changing camps he has been absolutely flying and whilst he faces a significant step-up in grade we believe he is more than up to it. Good value at her current quote.
LAY – DEMERARA – Race 3 No.8 (Sydney)
Crack field of fillies, whilst she has been flying down south, the opposition has been much weaker than what she faces here. Expect her to drift from current quote.
BACKED – OOHOOD – Race 6 No.13 (Sydney)
Had an enormous performance in the Golden Slipper and punters are expecting her to go one better tomorrow, she is $4 into $3.40 to shed the maiden tag.
Gareth Phillips – Betstar
DONCASTER MILE – HAPPY CLAPPER – Race 9 No.3 (Sydney)
Happy Clapper has finished second in this race the past two years and placed behind Winx last start here. He is racing as well as ever and gets the gun run from barrier one.
BEST – OOHOOD – Race 6 No.13 (Sydney) Oohood is still a maiden but was arguably the unlucky runner in the Golden Slipper. Stepping up to the 1400m looks ideal for her. She brings the best form lines to this run and will be a good run.
VALUE – LANCIATO – Race 9 No.11 (Sydney)
One of the new kids on the block with a featherweight. He has won five of his last six and will love the step up to the mile here. At $20 plus to find out if he can step into this grade is value.
LAY – REDZEL – Race 8 No.1 (Sydney)
It’s impossible to shoot holes in his stellar form for the five-year-old, but he is far from unbeatable in this field. At his current price of $2.60 I’m not willing to take the risk.
BACKED – ENIBHAAR – Race 1 No.8 (Sydney)
Terrific effort in Blue Diamond and punters have led with their wallets to support her with gear changes here. She has been $2.90 into $2.60 with us as a string of confident bets have been delivered.
Wayne Symons - Unibet
DONCASTER MILE – KEMENTARI – Race 9 No.9 (Sydney)
Can’t go past the Godolphin three-year-old colt that has drawn an ideal gate in a race devoid of leaders in numbers. Can race forward and can see him just off the speed ready to pounce.
BEST – IN HER TIME – Race 8 No.8 (Sydney)
I haven’t seen a more impressive first-up run than this mare’s last win. She is set to stalk the good speed here from her ideal barrier and will be too strong late. Did run quicker time than Redzel on Everest day.
VALUE – MY TAGOSON – Race 4 No.6 (Sydney)
His run at Muswellbrook was excellent when he came from last down the outside on a biased track to run second. There’s a lot of speed here and I see him getting over the top, great value at $26.
LAY – LUVALUVA – Race 10 No.1 (Sydney)
This filly’s win in the Kembla Grange Classic was good but she was scratched last week. Meets a talented lot and gives them all 7kg and as such I have to oppose her at the current price of $3.20.
BACKED – SHE’S SO HIGH – Race 3 No.6 (Sydney)
Victorian visitor and part of the in-form Mick Price team, resumed with a great win in the Moomba Plate and punters have rallied around her expecting her to win again, has been $5 into $4 with us.
Declan Schuster - William Hill
DONCASTER MILE – HAPPY CLAPPER – Race 9 No.3 (Sydney)
Placed behind Winx last start which is arguably the best horse in the world and makes us confident he will be able to defy the weight. Drawn well in barrier one, with Blake Shinn aboard looks hard to beat.
BEST – HOLY SNOW – Race 2 No.1 (Sydney)
Really switched on with the blinkers last start and if he runs up to that performance here he’ll take beating. He’s drawn well in barrier seven and the form around Unforgotten and Hiyaam looks good.
VALUE – WYNDSPELLE – Race 7 No.11 (Bendigo)
Ran an improved race last start and stepping up to the mile for this could spark a good performance. He comes through some hot form races behind Tshahitsi and Shillelagh, both in top form.
LAY – OOHOOD – Race 6 No.13 (Sydney)
Placed in the Golden Slipper last start and looks the obvious pick to win this but stepping up to 1400m can pose a threat. Seabrook and Not A Single Cent could cause Oohood a few headaches.
BACKED – SHE’S SO HIGH – Race 3 No.6 (Sydney)
We put up $5 about which was backed into $4. She destroyed a field of capable sprinters last start at Flemington in the Listed Incognitus Stakes by over three lengths and looks well placed to win again.
Thomas Hackett - bookmaker.com.au
DONCASTER MILE – D’ARGENTO – Race 9 No.16 (Sydney)
Love the fact that he is dropping back to 1600m after his outstanding win in the Rosehill Guineas. He has no weight on his back and the wide barrier draw should be an advantage.
BEST – HOLY SNOW – Race 2 No.1 (Sydney) Holy Snow is yet to produce a bad run this campaign and the form coming out of the Phar Lap Stakes was franked in a big way in the Vinery Stud Stakes. Expecting him to hold his form in this run.
VALUE – TCHAIKOVSKY – Race 6 No.7 (Sydney)
Tchaikovsky ran well in the Todman Stakes and his maiden race win at Gosford last start was excellent. He is still on the way up, while a number of his rivals have had long campaigns.
LAY – DEMERARA – Race 3 No.8 (Sydney)
She has recorded two impressive wins from as many starts this campaign, but this is a genuine step-up in class and she could be a touch vulnerable in a strongly run 1200m event.
BACKED – SHE’S SO HIGH – Race 3 No.6 (Sydney)
She was excellent last start at Flemington and punters are confident that she can make it two wins on the trot. She has been $5 into $4.20 with us and should start even shorter.
Matthew Campbell – CrownBet
DONCASTER MILE – HAPPY CLAPPER – Race 9 No.3 (Sydney)
This seven-year-old looks as good as ever, running within a length of Winx in the George Ryder. There is no better form than that. Just remains to be seen whether the inside barrier is a plus or a minus.
BEST – MOGHUL EMPIRE – Race 6 No.9 (Morphettville)
Hard to see him beaten here. Could easily be three from three and his win at Moonee Valley was a win of horse set to go through the grades quickly. Up in class, but the weight drop will be very beneficial.
VALUE – LYUBA – Race 4 No.3 (Bendigo)
Sprightly Lass looks the one to beat, but Lyuba looks the best each-way bet on the Bendigo card. Before the spell she won a Group III race at Flemington over the same distance. Expect a bold showing.
LAY – DEMERARA – Race 3 No.8 (Sydney)
Was well backed at Flemington and got the job done, but, she is in a much tougher race here. She’s better fresh or second-up and I think She’s So High has form against the best fillies’ and is the one to beat.
BACKED – OOHOOD – Race 6 No.13 (Sydney)
Personally, I’ve always thought Seabrook was a Sires’ filly so I won’t be changing my mind here, but after the Slipper the punters are keen on the maiden thinking she will finally break through.
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