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Everything posted by Chief Stipe
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You quoted research that says something quite different to what you have just posted. The research says that the Southern DHB has the highest rate of colorectal cancer but the Canterbury region has the highest water nitrate levels. The latter has been a historical fact for decades with levels being high when farming was predominantly arable and dry stock. Southland led the resurgence of Dairy in the South Island in the early 90's. I know because I worked for the largest corporate dairy farmer in NZ at the time. That aside if you read the research that you quoted AND the opinions that arose from it you will find that the a link between water nitrate levels is by no means certain. Paraphrasing what one researcher said "the people of South Canterbury may eat more red meat than elsewhere in NZ"! Now let's discuss the Navarros and Servis indictments shall we?
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I didn't know that if you had indicator lights on your wing mirrors then regardless of if you had front and rear indicator lights in the normal position the side mirrors had to work. A friend of mine has a Jeep which failed a warrant because the wing mirror lights weren't working. LOL you can't easily replace the LED strips inside so you have to buy a whole new wing mirror. A replacement costs $3,000!
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Well @JJ Flash having an opinion that makes yours look like rubbish isn't hard. I reserve the right for anyone on BOAY to challenge what others post if they have a cogent argument. @the galah has posted about nitrates in Canterbury water and bowel cancer. Both topics I have studied in quite some depth. One at University and the other while working as the senior project manager for the MOH on an attempt at introducing a nationwide bowel cancer screening programme. Knowing how the MOH operate I'm not surprised that it has taken ten more years to get something done. The solution I researched and provided a business case for would have taken 18 months.
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The article refers to the research YOU quoted!!!!! The one that extrapolates the findings of a Danish study and was done by Victoria and Otago Universities. The one you quoted that said 300,000 to 800,000 NZ'ers may have increased risk of bowel cancer. The Jane Richards, Tim Chambers et al. It says the Southern DHB region has the highest bowel cancer rates even though Canterbury has the highest nitrate levels. https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/nitrate-levels-water-could-be-cancer-risk https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/436879/up-to-800-000-new-zealanders-may-have-increased-bowel-cancer-risk-due-to-nitrates-in-water https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29435982/
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J Mcgartland 2002 Clipped heels and was trampled by following horses. J Lawson 2006 - injured. J Jamison 1992 - injured. Was the track a contributing factor in each of those? Should we list ALL the other seriously injured jockey falls throughout the country? Hewison McRae Black Mundy Many Canterbury trainers have no hesitation in trialling at Rangiora.
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The report was based on a 2018 Danish study which sought to link higher rates of colorectal cancel to those people living in regions with a groundwater nitrate level above 0.87mg/l. It stated that somewhere between 300,000 and 800,000 Kiwis were at risk of getting colorectal cancer because they were drinking high nitrate water. Then on February 24th, a second article was published also in Stuff. Dr Frank Frizelle, a bowel cancer surgeon and the medical advisor for Bowel Cancer NZ, cautioned against the over interpreting of studies that seek to prove a link between water nitrates and bowel cancer. He pointed out high rates of colorectal cancer were unlikely to be caused by high levels of nitrates in the ground water as the 2018 Danish study found. Dr Frizelle said that of seven studies undertaken around the world on the same issue, four showed no significant difference, two indicated a slight increase in risk and the Danish study showed a notable increase in bowel cancer. However, when the analysis of all seven studies was measured against the number of bowel cancer cases recorded, it was questionable that there was “anything there at all” in terms of increased risk. Dr Frizelle suggested that the cause of bowel cancer could be due to the higher rates of meat consumption (an established risk factor) in rural communities. These rural communities also tend to have higher water nitrate levels. The above is a great example of how we can use numbers to support an opinion. The Danish report measured high rates of colorectal cancer in areas with high water nitrate levels. They assumed one (water nitrates) caused the other (colorectal cancer). However, as Dr Frizelle, a person who knows a lot about colorectal cancer points out, “What we have got now is a very loose association with nitrates and bowel cancer, and perhaps it doesn’t exist at all ... there is no logical reason or cause and effect.”
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No doubt the articles you reference were a pitch for medical research funding from Central Government. Wouldn't surprise me if they were a beneficiary in the funding announcement this week. Oh for the days when funding wasn't contestable and the scientific method prevailed. As for the article you paraphrased - here is a direct quote (note the region with the highest occurrence is the Southern DHB NOT Canterbury): Between 300,000 and 800,000 New Zealanders may be exposed to potentially harmful levels of nitrates in their drinking water, which may increase their chances of developing bowel cancer. In no way were the researchers saying their results proved nitrates were causing higher rates of colorectal cancer in the Southern DHB area, he said, but they were calling for more research into the issue, as the different cancer rates could not be easily explained by differences in key risk factors.
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You made a vague reference. You didn't put up a cite/reference and for all we know the quote was a paraphrased one based on your memory. As I said nitrate levels were a concern in Canterbury well before dairy farm intensification. Perhaps the researchers you paraphrased weren't old enough to remember that research. You will find that the nitrate levels then were not dissimilar to today's. I'd be interested to see their methodology in determining the origin of the nitrates and distinguishing between ALL the various sources. Show me the evidence.
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I provide real science on a subject that I definitely know more about than you and it is me that has my head in the sand? I'm assuming you have been referring to Canterbury in these latest posts. As I said nitrate levels in the aquifers of the Canterbury Plains have been flagged as an issue for at least the last 40 years. It isn't caused by Dairy Farming. Of course you won't argue the science by producing references or cites but just talk in vague terms of "they say" etc. Much the same as your inferences to drug cheating and PED use in racing.
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You really have absolutely no idea of modern farming practices do you? Nor the science of nitrogen cycle.
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The Waikato?
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@the galah you should get a job on INCA as you are very good at extrapolating from A to achieve D! Yes dairy cows can excrete E. coli just as any mammal can. Nitrate levels can increase in water from uncontrolled dairy farm runoff but there are more than one source are more likely to occur from high country runoff. However why do you link E. coli, nitrate levels and bowel cancer? That is an hypothesis which hasn't been proven. There are numerous possible causes of bowel cancer. Who are THEY that did the testing? Where is the research paper? Were they all using bore water, rain water or reticulated supply? Did you know rainwater has nitrates in it? With regard to the high numbers getting bowel cancer this has been a hidden epidemic in NZ for decades and not just confined to rural areas but the big cities as well. Men are more likely to get bowel cancer than women - do they drink more bore water? We've seen cancer screening programmes for breast and cervical cancer for decades and I was involved in an attempt to set up a programme for proactive bowel cancer screening when working at the Ministry of Health. That was ditched and money directed back to existing programmes. The statistics were horrendous and those affected were dominated by men. You point the finger at the dairy industry yet the nitrate/nitrite issue in underground aquifers has been an issue for decades well before dairy farming became more prevalent. Why? Intensive cropping can be a source of high nitrates PLUS nitrate levels in underground water will spike after periods of drought (last summer?) followed by intense rain. The nitrates are more likely to come from cropping or dry stock ground than dairy pasture. Dairy pasture is predominantly on heavier soils with more organic matter which traps nitrates unlike the stonier lighter soils that dominate grain cropping. I'm not deflecting the blame nor ignoring the science. I'm actually recognising decades of evidence based research done in the Canterbury region. Easy to point the finger at the "wealthy big dairy farmer"! I've attached a paper from 1990 that shows high levels of nitrates leaching into ground aquifers from arable farming. Be afraid of those that fly the banner of "follow the science" - they don't mean evidence based science leading to a consensus and the truth but "follow the science" that supports their agenda. Can't you see the irony in that the grain loving part of the population may actually be more responsible than the dairy and meat lovers? EFFECTS OF MIXED CROPPING FARMING SYSTEMS 1990.pdf