Chief Stipe

What's your point? The virus evolves. It isn't human genes that change it - it is the process of RNA replication. With thousands to millions of replications happening in an infected person the probability of replication errors occuring is great. Covid-19 is a coronavirus - unless this particular strain SARS-COV-2 dies out of its own accord then it will continue to circulate. So your epidemiologist opinion/theory is basic. A mutation can occur at anytime however if the original virus was milder than one's circulating now then it would have been wiser to have allowed it to have circulated as quickly as possible than try and intervene and only prolong the pandemic's life. NZ now has a completely Covid-19 naive population the UK and Sweden are close to herd immunity - it doesn't matter what the virus does now. But for NZ? Well we are relying on vaccines still being effective against new variants. We should have taken the pain early - we still have the pain to come unless we want to live in Fortress NZ for the rest of our lives.

There is absolutely NO evidence to support the assertion that virus will mutate and become deadly to younger people. However the possibility that you raise adds further weight to having allowed the initial apparently "milder" virus to circulate throughout the community while protecting the vulnerable. Arguably it is Government actions that has put more selection pressure on the virus that would have occurred. Over 99% of the population would have had either an asymptomatic infection or at worst a mild one. Hence the original Global Pandemic plans were the exactly the same as Sweden's however politics took over and they were abandoned. Those plans were developed based on worse scenarios than Covid-19. They were based on short, medium and long term implications.

Because it is all daft. My cynical analysis would say that they have done a risk analysis and the reality is that South Auckland has a much higher risk profile than New Plymouth. The only reason the South Island and the Chathams are at Level 2 is because we have to share the kindness (pain) overall the 5 million. That's how socialism works doesn't it?!

You tell us why Brodie. Purdon and Rasmussen said in their original press release that they would be still involved but not to the level they were before. Specifically they wouldn't be training. What's the conspiracy Brodie?

Rule Number(s): 869(4)(b),(c)Mr Munro alleged that Mr Clarke (TUSCON SUN) shifted wider on the track near the 1200 metres forcing REINDEER TROUBLE and MAJESTIC JAG wider on the track. Rule 869(4) states: No horseman shall during any race do anything which interferes or is likely to interfere with his own horse and/or any other horse . (Feed generated with FetchRSS)View the full article

Rule Number(s): 869(3)(b)Mr Munro alleged that Mr Telfer (PRINCE RANIER) shifted inwards racing into the first bend forcing JERRY GARCIA inwards resulting in TOP POCKET CHANCE being checked, with that horse breaking as a consequence. Mr Renault demonstrated on the videos that Mr Telfer was racing 3-wide at the winning post with . (Feed generated with FetchRSS)View the full article

Rule Number(s): 638(1)(d)Following the running of Race 7, NZB Insurance Pearl Series race, an Information A11774 was filed by Stipendiary Steward, Mr M Davidson, alleging that Apprentice Jockey Miss M Gestain has permitted her mount MAIDINTHEMIST to shift inwards dictating IZZY HOUDINI (R Beeharry) inwards crowding RUBY ROYALE . (Feed generated with FetchRSS)View the full article

Rule Number(s): 638(1)(d)Following the running of Race 2, McKnight and Brown Maiden, an Information A11772 was filed by Stipendiary Steward, Mr M Davidson against Apprentice Jockey, Mr C Campbell alleging careless riding in that he permitted his mount SALISBURY to shift inwards when not sufficiently clear dictating SLINKY LINKY . (Feed generated with FetchRSS)View the full article

Rule Number(s): 638(1)(d)Following the running of Race 2, McKnight and Brown Maiden, an Information was lodged by Stipendiary Steward, Mr M Davidson against Class A Rider, Mr D Bothamley alleging careless riding in that he permitted his mount SOVIET WONDER to shift inwards when not sufficiently clear of LILY OF THE VALLEY, which . (Feed generated with FetchRSS)View the full article

It is extremely frustrating to see this BS continuing. Even if no interventions of any kind were implemented and the virus was allowed to circulate then herd immunity would have been achieved with no more than 5,000 deaths. NOT the 80,000 the moronic NZ epidemiologists have banged on about. Now that 5,000 is at the high end. We all know now that those that succumb to the virus are the aged and with co-morbidities. 92% of those who have died in Sweden are over the age of 75. 75% over the age of 82! 5% of Sweden's population is over the age of 80. i.e. 550,000. So 9,000 out of 550,000 died from Covid-19. Sweden has an excess mortality rate of 10-15% for 2020. So 90,000 people die annually and this has risen to 100,000. The excess mortality in 2020 has a significant component of displaced mortality from 2019. In 2019 the annual mortality was down significantly due to a mild influenza season. If you look back over the last 20 years then the mortality rate in Sweden is no different to any other year! THAT IS A FACT! So taking overseas data the likely death toll from those dying WITH Covid-19 NZ would have seen around 3,000 deaths predominantly the aged and those with significant comorbidities. Reality is they were going to die anyway. Harsh but true. However what have we done? Spent $100 billion to prevent 3,000 deaths. That is THIRTY THREE MILLION per person given another few years of life!!!! Meanwhile - businesses have gone bust (more to come you watch this space), our school children have had their education considerably disrupted, cancer's and other diseases have gone undiagnosed or untreated and so on and so on.

The NZ tracks have been "playing" this way for years. Doesn't matter what the Track Managers do they can't present good tracks because the tracks are fundamentally stuffed. Wrong. They irrigated on Tuesday in anticipation of forecast rain the next day. That's good practice as you can't guarantee how much rain you will get so you irrigate to make sure that any rain is absorbed into the soil rather sitting on the top. They then got 19mm of rain on the Wednesday. The track being "off on the inside" is nothing to do with irrigation or rain - the soil is stuffed and the turf is sub-optimal because of it.

Can anyone explain why the South Island and the Chatham Islands have to be put into Level 2?

So you don't know either. FFS it is a bloody turf racetrack not a paddock! Easy for Reefton and their farmers when you had stuff all rsce meetings or horses trained on it for decades. Something we agree on. So nothing is going to change. Suggest you send your horses to OZ.

Was anyone else not impressed with Sir Dragonet's first up run last week? He looked odd walking in the parade ring as if he had two watermelons between his legs. Then when they were being loaded into the barriers you could hear a horse squealing. I wondered if it was him. One of those rare entires to be still racing at age 5 years.

Seems to be who you direct the language at. Better to say to a Stipe "Yes Sir, but I don't agree Sir" dripping with sarcasm than to say "F#@K Off you silly old C#@T!"

Yes it wasn't a good run but there were excuses. Wouldn't write her off yet. Although I don’t rate her as a top line Grp 1 horse in OZ there are plenty of options over there if placed right. She showed that with the Empire Rose and a 2nd and a 3rd in the Mackinnon. Those three races alone netted her a $1M. I'm surprised the Te Akau baggers have yet to comment on the Brando and Khama Lass runs. They both looked underdone. I'm not sure yet that other than Baker/Forsman if NZ Trainers get their horses wound up enough to compete first up over there. Easy over there when you look at the class of some of the Metrop trials.

Remind me not to subscribe to your tipping service. Seems to be as good as Thomarse's. Actually I'd be willing to take a wager that she bounces back. She's going to Australia there is no doubt. As was discussed yesterday she is heading to the Magic Millions Broodmare sale regardless of how many more runs she has. No harm in trying your hand in some of those Brisbane races at the winter carnival. She won the Sire's Produce beating Pierata. In her last hit and run to Australia she did run 3rd in the MacKinnon Stakes to a useful horse in Arcadia Queen. She is a previous Grp 1 winner in Australia. Whether they give her a spell now (which I doubt) or press on with the campaign I'm sure Jamie Richards will make the right decision. Don't forget that yesterday was only her second up run from after a spell - with her first up winning the Grp 1 Thorndon Mile after a 12 week break. Unless she has done what mares do and has switched off she will race again in Australia. She is nominated for the Coolmore (1600m) and the Queen Elizabeth (2000) on 10 April. So if you want to factually evaluate her run yesterday: second up over 2000m after winning a Grp 1 after a 12 week break; the Thorndon Mile was a soft win - hardly a Grp 1 class race, a small field and a slow time; caught flat footed in the Herbie Dyke on a slow pace - first 1200m in 1:16; knocked over on the turn a couple of times and then blocked for racing room; not pushed; still wouldn't be race hard yet. Write her off? Yeah na!

Add to that declining quality and numbers in fields and Jockey's and well......

Yep mares (equine and other species) can do that - just switch off. I don't think that is the case here though. She was caught flat footed when the pace suddenly went on. She was knocked at the corner and lost momentum. Then had no room. She has always liked being in the clear - maybe that is why she wears blinkers. The other thing with these types of mares they learn their craft so well that they protect themselves and also know when the race is lost. Yep if you are in a good position and don't want to lead what do you do about it? A slower pace in my opinion often results in more bad luck stories than a race where the pace is solid and even. If you mistime your move by a few split seconds you often get into traffic issues or having to run an impossible sectional at the finish.

How am I not "being objective"? I didn't single out Melody Belle for analysis. Were there no other examples yesterday? Any thoughts on Levante? I actually watched the race live and my thoughts on it haven't changed after watching the race again a number of times and reading the Stipes report.

You MISS the point Joe. Pre-race testing may have value but where is the proof that it does? Does the added cost to the industry achieve what it sets out to achieve? I've never said that NZ "racing is as clean as snow" but is pre-race testing going to clean the snow? Not when the basic fundamental problem is the economics of racing in NZ. What do we see happening at the moment? The investment of $48m into 3 AWT's that will transform the industry from a low cost model at the coal face to a high cost one without any significant gain in revenue or return to stakeholders. Just at a time when maybe, just maybe, TAB NZ was heading in the right direction in terms of their cost structure. Although in that regard their two biggest costs are locked in from quite some time to come.

Your angst is justified but your reasoning for it and your targets are not. Why bag selected Jockey's and Trainer's? They're not "running it" - they're trying damn hard to survive! The problems you describe all go back to one root cause of which they are but symptoms. Wasted money! The NZRB/RITA/TABNZ/Whatever it will be named next year and their decades, yes decades of largesse, focussing on dumb projects and paying over the top fees for them. The AWT's being the latest folly.

Geezus Joe - have you got a hangover today? One was 2000m race the other was 1000m! Plus what was the point of riding Melody Belle out when she had no room!

So are you bagging the horse or the rider or BOTH Joe? FFS you make yourself out to be the expert of all things racing from riding to ownership to training. Go back and look at her previous races. Yes you could argue that Opie got caught napping on a slow pace when they started sprinting at the 600m but hell the knocks she got on the corner and then no room after what do you expect? I'm surprised Colgan didn't get pinged for that - Geez watch his elbows! As for "being the good rider that he is" I'm sure the Trainer and Owners of Tiptronic are really happy with Colgan today! TIPTRONIC (V Colgan) – Shifted outwards to avoid the heels of MELODY BELLE near the 1600 metres when over racing. When being steadied, TIPTRONIC went back onto THE CHOSEN ONE and SINARAHMA which were both hampered. Required veterinary treatment post-race after being gallop on during the running.

Just to put some perspective on this. Joe you bag NZ racing all the time. But I think there were more horses "Pre-race Tested" at Te Rapa than at Flemington yesterday. Pre-race blood for post-race analysis: Race 1 Selica (NZ), Brazen Song Race 2 Ingratiating, Birdsville, Mt Buller, Gimmie Par Race 3 Buffalo River (USA), Irish Flame (USA), Regardsmaree Race 4 Good Idea, Sikorsky, Coolth Race 5 Zou Dancer, Starelle, A Pinch Of Luck Race 6 Dadoozdart (GB), Holbien, Polanco, Skyman (GB) Race 7 Cherry Tortini, Brando (NZ), Aysar, Zac De Boss (NZ) Race 8 Bivouac, Halvorsen Race 9 Rich Itch, Ruban Bleu, Zakat, I'm Telling Ya Pre-race urine for post‑race analysis: Race 1 Silent Sovereign Race 2 Treporti, Frost Flowers Race 3 Widgee Turf, Takumi (IRE) Race 4 War Critic (NZ) Race 5 Personal Race 7 Tagaloa Post‑race samples from following horses: All Winners Race 5 Personal (2nd placegetter) Race 7 Aysar (2nd placegetter) Race 8 September Run (2nd placegetter), Swats That (3rd placegetter)