FeelTheFear

Where is Harry? I'm sure I heard that every Tom, Dex and Harry was cheating

only if you punt before the race

"He said he was "flippant" about the investigation but "I feel sorry for the trainers involved. I feel bad for the guys and the people they are interviewing. It's their livelihood. It's terrible for them". "It tarnishes all their reputations even if nothing is found which there won't be." https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/police-raid-10-harness-racing-stables-across-new-zealand-20180904-p501np.html

Counties abandoned tomorrow, had a really great long shot winner lined up too

Did a quick check on a few horses and it didn't really matter whether the BW/CW ratio increased with regard to wins, though it does fall away over 12%+. I suspect that lighter framed horses will do less well with the higher ratio than heavier framed horses. Another words, a heavier body weight, if corresponding to fitness, may handle the extra weight than a lesser body weight horse, even when the ratio is the same for both. Makes sense. I guess it all comes back to the individual horse and that is where my future analysis lies, just need more data. With regards to times, as Curious has noted, that is a line I might investigate for each individual horse. Of course, any positive outcome on a value for a horse under race day conditions would be a small part of overall assessment. There is too much variability to be accurate. Just my thoughts.

"A few years ago I did a lot of work on mitochondrial DNA. This is the DNA that is inherited matrilineally - that is - the female passes it on to her sons and daughters but only the daughters then pass it on to the next generation. Setting aside the physiological importance of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), it is also important from a historical perspective as it allows us to examine an individual and group them by their mtDNA haplotype, as this haplotype remains relatively unchanged for thousands of years and traces back through to a single source." http://www.performancegenetics.com/single-post/2018/09/03/Mitochondrial-DNA-haplotypes-and-mating-outcomes

Data includes both Happy Valley and Sha Tin, turf and all weather

I'm not great with statistics but... 248 winners total. 31 winners BW/CW 12.00%-13.48% (12.50%) 217 winners BW/CW <12.00% (87.50%) 124 winners BW/CW <11.00% (50.00%) 2559 non-winners total. 200 Non-Winners BW/CW 12.00%-13.66% (7.82%) 2359 Non-Winners BW/CW <12.00% (92.18%) 1509 Non-Winners BW/CW <11.00% (58.97%)

I might anticipate Curious here...this is a population study and not an individual horse study. No matter what the result, analysis should be applied to each individual horse to see if it has a biased CW+BW regarding it's potential best winning weight/weight ratio. Times might be another matter.... The data I have is from Sept. 2016 and for classes 1,2 and Group.

Haven't looked at it yet. Will try and do something in near future but just wondered what others thought, would it be helpful to know. If a positive then a small factor to consider in the overall analysis of finding a winner. I try everything and read everything, sometimes it triggers a thought or direction to look.

Three-time Group 1 winner Gingernuts has been officially retired. The cult horse, known to his fans and owners as 'Jerry', never raced again after breaking down on the way to the barriers for the Group 1 Emirates Stakes (2000m) in 2017 - the race won by Tosen Stardom. The Iffraaj gelding, still only five years of age, retires after just 12 starts, which spawned six wins - including in the Group 1 New Zealand Derby, Rosehill Guineas and Windsor Park Plate. https://www.racing.com/news/2018-09-03/news-gingernuts-retired

LoveRacing.NZ August 24 at 4:00 PM · LOVERACING.NZ Update! It’s just over a week to go until we reveal the new look LOVERACING.NZ platforms and we can’t wait for the launch!! Below are a few things to keep an eye out for: - The launch of the new look website - NZTR's two current Facebook pages will soon merge to become LoveRacing.NZ. This platform will contain all the content you know and love, it will just be more frequent and more in-depth!!! - You won’t have to do anything to start seeing this content, as long as you’re a fan of this page, you will be a fan of the new page, so you won’t miss a thing! - You will also be able to find this content, on the LOVERACING.NZ website. https://www.facebook.com/LoveRacingNZ/

Probably of no interest but will post anyway. "When Fox Hill Farm announced the retirement of champion Songbird Aug. 31, owner Rick Porter made the somewhat unconventional decision to post part of the filly's veterinary reports on Facebook to help fans understand the reasons for her departure. Those reports, from the office of Dr. Larry Bramlage at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky., can serve as a reminder about the challenges of preventing serious injury on the track." https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/voss-songbirds-vet-reports-might-reveal-racehorse-injuries/#.WbplKTPxBdk.facebook

Body weight would have to include blinkers I would think Turny

I was wondering if anyone has looked at horse weight versus carried weight. Have a bit of data I have collected for Hong Kong and decided to record the percentage of body weight to carried weight to gauge possible best ratio times for a winning horse. Just found this article. Figure 2 shows when the ratio CW/BW influences on the finished time. The finished time in general were quite good when running the races while carrying the CW of about 12.0-12.7% as compared to the BW of racehorse. When the ratio CW/BW reaches at about 13.0%, the CW has gradually influenced on the finished time. http://scielo.isciii.es/pdf/azoo/v60n231/art55.pdf

have backed Rippa Eagle @ $15

sorry chaps, backing them today so they will all probably fail.

Ruakaka Race 3 Firenze won this track and distance 06 Jan. Freshened after poor run, came back for fast finishing 2.1 lengh 4th at Hastings. Won 1100m trial 17 July. Followed up with hard run finishing 12th. Ran 4th last after erratic race behaviour. Better than that and at $16.00 Bet Easy worth a small bet.

Ruakaka: Race 1 Rippa Eagle performed at trials before race day 5th as 2yo. Won a trial 13 Aug. and expected to improve further. $16.00 on Bet Easy

Three for longer odds at Hastings. Race 2 Rayas has good record fresh up and ran 3rd in a trial a month ago, wasn't pushed. $11.00 on Bet Easy Race 3 Yes Boy trials performer, 2 race starts. Has showed dash but not finishing off races. Jonathan Riddell to ride. Race 7 Start Wondering for odds. Class performer and age no barrier. Won a trial before resuming at Te Rapa 18 Aug. where he was prominent but failed to finish off because of track conditions. Any drying of the track will suit.

don't know if I can top the $30+ dividend at Ashnburton but will have a look.

no not a cent hahah

On a winning run, let's have another go. Ashburton R2 #12 Baby Menaka. Currently $34 at Bet Easy. Trials performer incl. win before debut 13 Aug. 2018. Race improved her and next start jumped well, settled off pace, blocked for run straight before changing to inside and made a brief run before fading. Has ability, trained by John and Karen Parsons and Cory Campbell rides.

Forecast shows a little precipitation Thurs/Fri. (less than 1mm) and a fine day Sat.

It was an Rating 72 race so I rated #7 starting from barrier 2. Just kidding but there again, it would work just as well...