curious

You might but I don't.

You should read my posts before you question them. I think I clearly said that I don't see how they possibly can not and that the payments are as close to a certainty as you can get.

Exactly.

Simply that I don't see that one way or another, Entain can not pay the guaranteed minimum through May 2028, unless they can sell their contract to someone else who would then have to pay it.

Of course I'm making assumptions. So are you. That's the nature of predictive or futures markets. However, I believe my assumptions are well founded. I have exact Entain revenue data through the end of the 23-24 season. I have exact turnover data since then through August 25. I am assuming that overall margins remain the same through May 28, which is probably generous given the clear trend from tote to FO markets. I'm also aware of the annual growth in turnover to date. So, I am assuming that will remain similar for the balance of the guarantee period. The query of course was whether the online monopoly would change that but 2 months in there is no indication of that. As well, Entain has already written down the value of its TAB NZ operations due to missed targets and market challenges. And they face growing competition from casino licensing and other off shore marketers, especially where their pricing is not competitive. Now if you want to buy a horse to race beyond the guarantee period, or breed a foal that won't even get to the races by then based on your assumptions, then good luck to you.

I don't see how it could possibly become impossible. To me it's about as certain as you can get.

Do you realise how much further wagering revenue has to increase in order for distributions and therefore stakes to be sustained in a couple of years and how far behind original predictions they are in that regard?

I don't recall mentioning KALSHI here or anywhere. You did that. What do you think?

No. Can you?

I'll be joining you PLF. Certainly before the Entain subsidy ends but more likely this year.

Probably both but I think most would realise I was referring to the industry based on the above figures.

It aint there and never was. They dreamed it up. Fabricated it if you like.

Be nice to see some signs of that emerging as they pull back on their commitment to marketing expenses like this. I'd say there is more of this pull back from lavish extra expenditure to come.

A 7% increase year on year on NZ racing and that's turnover, so with the trend to FO, revenue is probably down. And that's with the benefit of the online monopoly, Betcha and extensive advertising now in full swing! The sunset might be closer than I expected.

I wonder how they selected the survey participants. It obviously didn't go to all owners or all licence holders, or all TAB account holders.

I didn't get it ... yet

Oh, so what are the right things that we should be focussed on?

And the participant 'think tank' concept is interesting. Not opposed to the idea but haven't we done enough thinking by now? It's surely time for some action?

Can't see how when the overseas operators can't legally take bets from kiwis on racing and sports anyway anymore, whereas overseas casinos still can?

Yes.

FB. There's mention maybe in that vid or somewhere that it may have been an AF.

Could be wrong but.... Alabama Lass & Sky Bird pull up lame, Lady Shenandoah was never a good thing from the draw, despite mugs listening to the cunning bookies. Oillie reviews Moonee Valley and the weekends group races. A great watch! https://www.racing.com/videos/2025-09-28/the-verdict--280925

Pulled up lame didn't she?

Feb 1