Wingman
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Everything posted by Wingman
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The track had a stern test yesterday and came through without issue. The last race was run in heavy rain after off/on showers earlier and it was run as a easy/dead track. On the old track they would have been looking for the outside rail. Best of all, no slips on the bend into the straight. They are backing up with another meeting on Saturday, a m/w on 12th then it should be all go for boxing day/ new year when we can bet with confidence on a fair track...yay
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They are waking up to the fact that the NZ market in no way mirrors Australia (which is not as rosy as it would seem at a glance) . Happy to be proved wrong but I still wonder will their offshore board look at what $ is projected to still be injected in NZ versus 25 years of $ slowly being dripped back and decide...No. There is also a lot of justifiable angst from mature posters regarding the changing landscape. Lack of preliminaries, waffle from presenters minus detail, lack of replays immediately after a race finishes etc. This in my opinion has reduced the the betting turnover of tens of thousands of regular punters. This trend did start before the takeover over but Entain were probably looking at figures and projected figures at the cusp of the wave crashing.
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We are lucky it lasted this long and that they are keeping the promo going until end of next month. I had a really good collect prior to Entain and thought it would be a gone burger relatively quickly. Not so, the old TAB stayed with it and current owners have to now kept it going, so fair play to them
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OK I will play the raw prawn on behalf of 'the team'. Please elaborate re business model, 101
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Correction, Aljay ran last in the 2023 Trentham Stakes
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After Aljay won the G3 NZ cup 2 years ago he went up 5 rating points from 78 to 83 yet despite running last in the 2023 Wellington cup he stayed unchanged at 83. Subsequently via excellent placing by his trainer he won three small open handicaps, two were 7 runner fields each with a stake of 35K, the other a 8 runner field for 50K. For each of those 3 wins he was rerated at 4 points but given the low value and quality my reckoning they should have been 2 points, therefore 6 points over-rated. So onto Perfect Scenario who ran 5th in the L 3yo Karaka Millions and for whatever weird reason got bumped up 6 rating points. He then ran 2nd last in the Derby and received no reduction. For mine, at that point over-rated 7 points. Handicapping gets out of whack when unreasonable penalties are applied earlier in a horses career. Perfect Scenario topped the TAB mile on Wednesday and only three other horses were above the minimum. Aljay headed the NZ Cup field today and there were only two other runners above the minimum, Their severe rating totally distorting the spread of weights. The Livamol run at Te Rapa last month had the two top rated horses, El Vencedor and One Bold Cat both on a rating of 103. Are we really to believe that Perfect Scenario on a rating of 107 is a better horse than those two or that Aljay on a rating of 102 is their equal?
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I stick to ch62, appreciate not everyone has Sky but pause/rewind invaluable which is why I get hot when they speed off to another race immediately after crossing the line. The head on after the race is over is a must. So for that matter is the mute button. I find it bemusing how they talk up a race, remind you to bet on it and then f@!.k off to another race as if the one they were talking up never happened. Case in point today was NZ Cup when there was constant reminders that the 1st four had a guaranteed pool of 150K but did the presenters mention the result and dividend afterwards...of course not.
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BLINKERS ON First time...what took them sooo long???
Wingman replied to Thomass's topic in Galloping Chat
Two trains of thought. Blinkers on first time, get on, fill ya boots. OR.. gear change, gear added , avoid like the plague. So do you believe in God or are you an atheist..take your pick, but no one wins these type of discussions. -
Really pleasing to see this track fulfill its duties without drama yesterday. Another meeting in two weeks then interestingly on 4th Jan their meeting has three 1600m races including Thames cup so they must be confident that whatever issues they had with the shute between 1600 to 1400 will be sorted.
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Correct. When we get to summer racing Dec - Feb the the problems magnify as the NZTR management insist on watering protocols that in many cases just make tracks anything but summer tracks . Think Otaki in Feb when they were coming down the outside fence. When the new CEO is announced there is a final opportunity (As long as the appointment is not internal) to once and for all sort this out. They fluffed about for more than a decade with Hastings before doing what should have happened last decade and it is obvious that Trentham and Riccarton need to get the same intensive renovations. Also do it once do it right. Ellerslie and Te Aroha both glaring examples of how not to go about it.
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OK. Thanks for the comprehensive input. There is 3 meetings over 12 days Nov 30th, Dec 7th and then a m/w on 12th and after that we should have a better idea and opinions of the track leading into boxing day/new year.
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And that view is?
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And there in is the heart of the problem. Tracks that experienced punters no longer trust. Changing direction what do boay posters now think of the Ellerslie track?
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There are limited G1 races for 3yo which is as it should be. You are entitled to your opinion . Mine is keeping those G1 is imperative even if it means moving location. The only way they will not lose their status is by moving as the large training establishments are showing stronger reluctance to travel. The NZTR have egg on their face yet again as they have allowed the Karaka meeting to become the tail that wags the dog.
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Only 8 acceptors, last year, 11 and previous 14. Like it or not this race and 1000 Guineas are going to have to head north. That is the reality/impact of Karaka millions and other big money races. Short term monetary gains, potentially immeasurable long term losses to breeding credibility. NZTR have had their heads in the sand for far too long re having a major overhaul of the calendar. Any further fluffing about will put the G1 value of these races in real jeopardy.
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Common-sense prevails! Kah charges dropped.
Wingman replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
That is the beauty of thoroughbred racing. Something for everyone's preferences. The bookies in UK despise the each way punter who only backs the 5 to 1 shots in 8 horse fields (money back if 2nd or 3rd) and love all those trying to pick the winner of 30 horse heritage handicaps. Yes you read that correctly, 30 horse fields! -
Common-sense prevails! Kah charges dropped.
Wingman replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
Armchair critics. Run that race again, change a few split decisions... 23 horses on a turning track, there will always be hard luck stories and criticism. One aspect most seem to have missed is that there were subtle on off speed changes until approx 900m when as usual into full speed. The time was 3.19.53, very respectable but over a second slower than Without a Fight in 2023 -
Sheila Laxon still has it! Knights Choice wins Grp 3 Sunshine Coast.
Wingman replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
Yes well found and jolly well done. I had the second horse in a boxed Q, tfa and 1st 4 and had so ignored the winner in my albeit brief study (I treat the cup more as a lottery so put the bets on early afternoon) that I briefly wondered if the commentator had got the name wrong. Certainly he continued to improve on a good but well beaten run in the Bendigo cup whilst the winner of that race, Sea King, got the tide forecast completely wrong. Great exciting finish and reacting to another post re those of you that could not get bets on I concur with your sentiments . It is simply not good enough that it happened at all but to pretend 'there is no problem' humbug. -
I was not critiquing Trackside 24/7 but rather giving them credit for staying live at MV post race. That was an amazing race. Prognosis looked the likely winner then Via Sistena blew him away in a track record time (over 1 second quicker) that was held previously by none other than Winx. I suggest you reflect on the joy of watching such a performance rather than complaining about presenters
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What a difference a week makes. After the Caulfield cup trackside producers could not wait to take us to the next at Gold Coast. Today, following the running of the Cox Plate, a race for the ages, the producers boldly state on screen, the next from Morphettville will be on ch63. Are they starting to understand the importance of capturing the essence of the aftermath of elite races? I hope so. A bouquet this week to both trackside producers and presenters.
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Te Aroha was my favourite track simply because I had so much success as a punter but whilst Ruakaka has even more front bias it never gelled with me. So horses (and punters) for courses. I now need to watch the next meeting at Te Aroha to see if the work done has changed it to any great degree. The fastest horse does not always win. Racing would be very straight forward if that were the case. The term 'tragedy beat' is testament
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That is Entain's target so serious punters like you and I are yesterday people. I still think they will lose more than they gain because the novelty will wear off and loss/loss. Back to race coverage, how hard is it to add an extra 40 seconds to the post race coverage to enable a replay of the last 200m and head on. I was considering focusing on Sydney/Melbourne but if they treat the Caulfield cup the way they did yesterday, why bother. For those of you who wonder why my fuss, watching the replay in real time reinforces certain runs/efforts that help one avoid being influenced by other outside opinion/chatter later.
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They are really doing themselves no favours, annoying the viewer immensely, by moving on to the next race with scant regard to the race just finished. Todays real disappointment was the Caulfield cup coverage so Chief Stipes tongue in cheek comment in his post 'Is the cup running today' wasn't far off the mark. Within 10 or so seconds after the last runner had crossed the line with no final 200m replay and no head on, they went to...drum roll... a race at Gold Coast, ffs. woeful.
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Pleased to read that. Been a long while since I was there on track but unless the facility and track had been badly neglected I could never comprehend the NZTR anti sentiment. Today with the gorge closed and a new road now in place it makes it even more attractive. A natural go to to cover the inevitable meeting transfers in the future.