Wingman

I did enjoy todays racing despite my finding SWP races a nightmare to work through. How can a G1 ( Thorndon) be anything other than a handicap or WFA? Wagering revenue is the elephant in the gambling room. In three years the funding ceases, Entain take 50% of the profit, sports betting will be on the rise and will racing then still be able to provide the stakes as they are today?

Agree, hope the jockey is OK. I rewound and watched the fall and he seemed to have managed to have very good instincts rolling away, given it was instant/out of the blue but one watch was enough, never pretty. When the stipe report comes out there should be more information.,

It was careless riding on a horse that was the winner a long way from the finish line. The old rules would have seen Grail Seeker relegated to 3rd. The jockey got off lightly, the connections of the 3rd horse got hit hard, but I would rather have the current rules. Bottom line, if it were a 30K r65 or 40K r75 nobody would care.

Trainers do not rock the boat. They do get pissed off but have to work gently to get any traction. Think of it as if you were working for a company/corporation, how long would you last if you were continually saying 'the strategic overview and tactics are beyond flawed. Owners heavily invested in the industry work with their trainers to maximise opportunity based on this seasons calendar. That then leaves us with who? to challenge the muppets, appointed by past muppets, who produce the calendar.

Some must see how the horse they intend to back looks and I respect that point of view. Some are less concerned, focusing primarily on form lines and last performance and I also respect that point of view. We all have different lines that we draw and will not cross. With that said here is a true story, no embellishment and I can record it accurately because I was the main player of the following story. Once apun a time a long time ago, 40 plus years I was a teenager at Trentham with $40 in my pocket. Back then they had on course trebles. I really liked the chances of a ten dollar shot in the 1st leg, race 2 so put $10 to win and took a treble, with the field, ten runners in race 3. 50% of my funds spent however the ten dollar anchor won and no matter what I was going home a winner. Now for the weird ,difficult part. Back then the 'system' could not handle a third leg so everyone who had a live ticket or tickets had to exchange their ticket for their runner/runners in the last leg. A good friend older and more experienced, asked me what I was going to do. I should mention that the 2nd leg was won by the rank outsider $60 and the bush telegraph was shouting there were only a handful of live tickets. I told him I could not see the favourite lose (number 1) and that was that. He came back to me and said it went down in its preliminary looking like a crab with a hamstring problem. I refused to budge although, yes I was concerned. The favourite was called Amyl and bolted in winning I think the Wellington Derby for 3yo. The treble paid somewhere around $800, probably 10-15K in todays money and understandably I have never bothered about preliminaries since. I do not however like to see horses in a bad sweat. The biggest point of this story is that after the race the trainer said in an interview with journalists, "don't worry about his action. he always looks like that, UNTIL he gets into a proper gallop."

The other 'thing' is one has to know what is 'normal' for every horse, which really is only going to be known with the better performed horses that are seen regularly. Many a time good horses have scratchy preliminaries but gallop fluently once racing.

I would like to know more about that if anyone can elaborate. I suspect there are now paid 'birdcage watchers' who report back to the bookies. That perhaps would in part explain late drifters

Most, 95% do not put values against the horse they back however they do subconsciously apply a value. Then there is the herd mentality whereby the drifter is the equivalent of the plague. I was at Randwick 15 or so years ago and in the ten minutes or so to the off (mid card) a 8 to one shot started drifting in price 'alarmingly' to 26 to one. It lead from the opening of the gates and was never headed. My attitude is if you have done your homework, am sure this is a good bet then you will be fine as long as you take a price you think is value. And there is the conundrum and the beauty of betting on thoroughbreds, we all have our opinions.

Anyone who thinks they have an edge in this game/business is highly unlikely to divulge detail. There comes a point where the 80% of perpetual losers get tossed/churned out, but remarkably, replaced by a similar number and type. The other 20% continue to calmly get on with making a profit. Or so they will tell you. Like everything in a competitive society to make a genuine profit you need to be a high achiever ,inside the top 5% and staying there is not easy. If any of you have been there, even briefly, you HAVE over achieved

A book that was produced 14 years ago by UK's Racing Post had a lot of detail to help people who like to back racehorses. Putting aside all of the arguments for and against recent/old form, weight etc, a telling closing statement in one of the chapters of the book, always stuck in my mind. Quote " THE ONLY WAY to make a long term profit from any form of gambling is to bet only when the odds available exceed the probability of winning. Unfortunately in horseracing there are no hard and fast rules - It will always be subjective, and a matter of personal opinion."unquote

Poignant! When I was a young man a colleague said to me "You nearly missed the first race" "How on earth did you know that?" I replied. "They started the race a few minutes late. I figured the starter was waiting for you to get your bets on!" As I type this I have an oil painting of the former grandstand in my study which was painted in 1969. In 1970 my Dad took me to Trentham, my first visit to Trentham and I was hooked. Il Tempo. My first horse won her first race at Trentham, I used to host parties at Trentham. I could but will not drop names and many stories. Poignantly I am unlikely to go back. I had the time to have gone today but it would have hurt. I was there last summer but it already felt like a relic. Time marches on and to be realistic I do not think that track will be part of the march.

Very classy mare but probably fragile despite her muscular physique. Superb team training effort but you were right to just watch and enjoy because rain on the morning of race day at Trentham ?? ??

Ran 1.07.7 which is quick. I thought they would have struggled to break 1.08 bearing in mind the shute is very quick ground. Some horses struggled, there is that word again, some tried but found the condition of the track difficult. Opportunity for form reversals if we get good ground on cup day.

Always easy after the race telling all and sundry how easy it was to pick the winner. Lance O'Sullivan pre race said he considered it to be a very strong field. That said I thought along similar lines that Grail Seeker would win. The potential fly in the ointment was Skew Wiff who Te Akau assistant trainer was telling us how well she was going into the race. When My lips are sealed won so well I thought the bad patch they had been going through might be over but perhaps not?

gore blimey

It became a 'family day' over a decade ago. I would prefer a two day carnival but my getting my calendar wishes from nztr are as likely as getting snow on christmas day in nz

Correct, There was and still is a very good reason that the 3 day Wellington cup carnival revolved around Anniversary day..nearly always decent weather, sometimes with a fresh northerly. Today, a southerly, 50-60 km gusts so don't expext a fast time in the telegraph

101. Saying two G1 from Singapore doesn't count is rubbish. They were probably better than some of the G1 handicaps we had going around not that long ago.

I said no such thing. McNab and Cartwright both defended their positions, The former saying 'Would have won' the latter saying he thought the 'brush' helped lift McNabs horse hence his argument that it had not affected the result. The stewards did not agree but would they have been so sure without convincing arguments from a well spoken trainer

There is always exceptions so no, apprentices should be able to have 'their' trainer with them but that is not necessarily the trainer of the horse they were riding. Enquiries would be a lot more straight forward without trainers biased input

The tighter the margin, the easier it is for articulate people to put forward their case. In my opinion regardless of who puts up the protest (Steward, jockey or trainer) it should only be the jockeys of the horses involved in the enquiry who should be in the room with the stewards

One week after a red hot fav from the usually all conquering Te Akau stable flops at Trentham another (Damask Rose $1.90) cannot even run in the first three in R7 Ellerslie today. On the face of it one might be able to do very well on New Years day by factoring their runners out of your analysis. As to the 'Why" I have neither an answer or a theory but I do refer to my topics title.

That is a fine piece of rebuttal Curious. With that concession I do still think it is not the race it was. I have always liked the seasonal flow and consistency of time honoured races but to quote Mr Fish; 'SIGH' ,that is a thing of the past in the land of the long white cloud.

On a different subject re the stable it was a real surprise to see them do so poorly today. A winner at Te Rapa but at Trentham their hot fav in 2yo a struggling 3rd out of 5 and Perfect Scenario who has not been worse than 3rd last 5 starts, including 2 wins also struggled and finished out of the money.

Mid Eighties to 2015 raced in March at Trentham over 1200m and was always a natural lead in to the Manawatu Sires Produce. Since 2015 moved to December and distance reduced to 1100m and as one can plainly see , is now no longer a quality race