Wingman
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Everything posted by Wingman
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Woodville is the classic example. NZTR have to eat humble pie and publicly admit the track will continue to race until the end of the decade. Why not admit their vision was blurred and revisit their venue plan? "Shan't, we know what is best for you". Great area (Woodville/Pahiatua) to put up a Tui billboard
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Staying with the stealth theme, a really good comparison this season will be how the quality of one and two thousand guineas races stack up against KM. Some trainers are not going to CHCH so if they are not the strongest fields next month (I think 1000 guineas is under warning) there will be pressure to moving those two races north.
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You cannot help yourself can you chief stipe. No problem with my reason but criticizing my use of a single word. Mediocre means ordinary, neither good or bad. Antipathy means aversion/repugnance and my point is that NZ/Aus is tumbling towards antipathy if we continue on the path the executive of racing keep pushing us down. We may be getting close to our Group black type being considered mediocre but my using antipathy is 100% correct because with every incorrect correction of the pattern based on short term profit we to requote myself, 'tumble towards antipathy'. On the street antipathy equates to indifference/unimportant and I am sure every breeder in this country and across the ditch do not want their black type to be considered unimportant
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My opinion is that if you devalue something that should be hard to achieve then it loses its awe so I agree with Doomed. My comment re listed races, as to wanting fewer is that they should be stick and carrot. On warning as a G3 or alternatively more of the same quality fields and a club gets its L race upgraded to G3. BUT it should still be limited in numbers, therefore worthwhile. Re G1 in the Antipodes we are close to being downgraded internationally, hence Arion response, because if they are not the most elite/toughest to achieve then we will be tumbling towards antipathy. I would rather see more G2 on the basis that G1 in our catalogues retains respect.
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Thanks for putting up the Messara interview Curious, a must watch imo. Telling that he considers a 5 million Everest would still attract the same top class fields and provide more revenue for lower grade racing. (Accepting that a sizeable chunk of the other 15m is outside capital)
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The comment "the decision reflects a commitment to addressing the underlying track issues for participants and horses alike" from NZTR COO Balcombe reaffirms why he should follow his boss out the door. Particularly as over the last few years the industry has been assured via several media releases that processes and protocols had been put in place to ensure it "woodn't happen again". Thanks for the updates Pinocchio
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Caulfield Guineas Day 2024: Track bias or Jockey pace misjudgement?
Wingman replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
He made his move down the back straight and did not cover the ground he would have at Flemington. So at Flemington you cover extra ground and the patiently ridden strong finishers have another 140 m (Caulfield approx 310-320 m straight) to pick up the bolter -
Caulfield Guineas Day 2024: Track bias or Jockey pace misjudgement?
Wingman replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
Yes! An astonishing ride. Shinn must have instinctively felt they were or were about to slacken the pace approx half way. Great ride however some tracks will not let you get way with that and Flemington immediately comes to mind. -
The article is suggesting it is the State racing authorities who are to blame and not in this case the breeders/sales companies. It almost has that feel of two entities pointing at each other, saying its all your fault. My opinion is that Group one is the ultimate and less is best and to that end, I also think the fewer Listed races the better. There is massive changes around the corner for thoroughbred racing around the world so this may well be the least of its problems. Singapore went under because firstly the Government banned advertising and then about 5 years ago took control of the wagering. UK has just had another hugely over priced sale at the very top end (Book 1) but the yearling sales below that are struggling to put it mildly. Wagering turnover is down because of Government interference prying into the affordability of individuals betting and the Government there is looking at hiking taxes
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Warning to Posters - no room for gossip on BOAY.
Wingman replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
How bossie, emiway onto more pressing matters -
The track debacle is probably what has drawn out his resignation but the botched project endeavouring to integrate NZTR data with Australian counterpart and 5 to 6 million dollars later, nothing to show for it, will be a major stain on credibility/performance. Read into what you will, a new chair arrives and in a relatively short time he is gone. The best thing that can now happen is for his direct reports to follow him out the door. A new CEO, a new team of GM's, A new era and no, please, no 2nd/3rd rate career admin type from across the ditch. The board will if they are sensible appoint a local who understands the importance of the Racing Calendar and pattern. One who understands casual betting, serious punting and can articulate how they differ. This person will bring the right people into the right positions. One that understands that group black type is what matters most and will not allow KM to continue to distort the calendar. That will also see some tracks getting some serious attention and meaning not all Group one racing will remain where it is currently raced.
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Had NZTR been an entity of a PLC there would have been, at least 3 years ago a please explain re meeting abandonments. The situation as it was 3 years ago pertaining to the calendar and the tracks being used, would have been specifically documented and non negotiable kpi's would have been put in place. Which tracks, why? Guaranteed track upgrades, when? AND a guarantee that the tracks will then do what they are supposed to do. support thoroughbred gallops. In this lovely imaginary world the calendar today would have significant differences and the executive of NZTR as we still know today would have long ran away on their rat trails or been fired. Unless there is a complete clean out of NZTR executive we will continue to see the same long winded press releases telling us how robust the new processes are to enable this not to happen again. except sadly it will. This is where you come in Mr Fish with a loud SIGH
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The cost, inconvenience, and massive disruption to fine tuned preps cannot go on. At the moment there is a guarantee of sorts that one of the three days of the Spring Carnival at Hastings will not go ahead. NZTR Board have an opportunity to say enough is enough and walk away from this track. In doing so, that might wish to consider if their continued insistence of over watering to 'achieve' consistency has created the opposite effect. The Venue plan to 31 July 2029 in commenting on the Hawkes Bay closes with the following "Discussions continue about the long-term venue for Hawkes Bay RI. NZTR will make further announcements in this regard, as and when appropriate."
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Not sure what you mean. Entain have paid money up front and committed to yearly distributions over a 5 year period. Then after that at the end of each season they split the profit 50/50 for a 20 year period. For NZ racing to be in a better position than they are in now (and for the next 3 seasons) they need, a) profits to rise significantly i.e. double, by 2028, or b) Entain board decides to cut its losses and pulls the plug on its NZ venture.
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OK to put some substance around this consider firstly that Entain have contracted to put x millions into NZ racing over a 5 year period. No need for a rehash of the detail to date however my thinking is that in return, the amount so far being bet , is probably underwhelming them. What more can they do...enter this maiden bonus format which on the face of it should increase midweek turnover. What I do not get is why link this to only sales graduates and that has possibly been answered earlier as per below Entain may also not have realised when bidding for the TAB business that NZ is not a carbon copy of the Australian market. There are limits as to what we can sustain here with regards to volume of racing and betting. I cannot see an upside for them inside ten years but a 25 year contract, unbelievably dumb from a NZ racing perspective, gives them plenty of time to claw back, subject to their board wanting to keep throwing money at our Industry. Should they stay the distance then the reality is 50% of the profit after the first 5 years, for 20 long years, goes west . In that regard from a NZ racing enthusiast point of view, make the most of this decade, the short term looks great regardless of what Entain does.
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The bonus is primarily aimed at the slower types and could set up some intriguing midweek betting races where a few of the large stables clash with their runners. The winners are those who purchased last year as it is for 3yo+. Should you buy at next years sales you will have one season of eligibility, 2026/7, although as Entain funding agreement is until 2027/8 maybe they will roll it out another year. So it encourages buying and betting but yes I agree, not the breeder who wants to retain and race.
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The last sentence is a telling statement;i,e "We simply race too much." As I have stated previously on different posts NZ has missed a real opportunity to reset its calendar and if it is to happen next season it is unlikely to happen with the current executive who have been in their positions of power far too long. Meanwhile below is a cut and paste excerpt from a Racing Post article in UK which puts another layer of worrying trends negatively impacting turnover. Racing's leadership has claimed the affordability checks already implemented by bookmakers have massively impacted online betting turnover and estimated the government's new policies could wipe a further £250 million from the sport's revenues over the next five years. Black added: "Of course there has to be social responsibility, but if it becomes an encumbrance on the innocent individual then you're just going to stop them from betting with all the red tape you put in their way. You'll irritate them and they'll stop, and change their habits as a result because no punter likes unnecessary form-filling and red tape, that drives people away. "The Gambling Commission knows that, they have to know that, so they know they'll annoy the hell out of a lot of perfectly innocent and responsible punters and as a result the industry will lose their business. That's going to be very damaging and they must know that.
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Correct. Lack of investment and a dumb direction from NZTR re watering to 'achieve' consistent safe tracks "yeah right" have stuffed most racetrack surfaces. I was unimpressed (under statement) that what has now become the last running of the G1 last Feb was butchered by over watering. To refresh memories the jockeys were looking for the outside of the track in the straight. Here is a description of the Otaki track from a publication approximately 20 years ago. Otaki; Well banked and drained resulting in horses performing pleasingly when racing on inside.
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WTF! Otaki-Maori WFA Classic Moved to Ellerslie!!!
Wingman replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
Staying with the country cup theme Victoria despite a reduction in betting revenue have committed to maintaining stakes at last seasons levels for this season. They also have a series of $50,000 maiden races culminating in a qualifying race for 250K at the Ballarat cup in early December. That is how an administrative body looks after its grassroot owners/trainers in Victoria all whilst it is during its showcase racing period. Are you paying attention NZTR/taking notes? -
WTF! Otaki-Maori WFA Classic Moved to Ellerslie!!!
Wingman replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
They love to punt. NZ less so. As an example a country cup meeting over there gets a lot of attention which helps turnover and encourages sponsors. What genuine country cup meetings do we still have, particularly with a Saturday date? -
WTF! Otaki-Maori WFA Classic Moved to Ellerslie!!!
Wingman replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
I am not comfortable with this continual stealth towards the north. At what point in time (2030?) are all G1 races held in Waikato/Auckland and how does this help grassroot development when you exclude diversity? -
Totally confirmed TAB For ever, you are Oscar from the odd couple. I would give you a virtual hug to try and improve your overall demeanor however as you have casually admitted that having a shave and shower equates to hard work you will have to settle for a covid high five 🤣
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The opportunity to have a long deep look at programming has been lost for another year. I had been hoping last Autumn for a serious shuffle but alas more of the same except some innovation from the newcomers Entain with bonus races. Those races also compete with black type races so it creates conflict with a decreasing pool of talented horses. Circuits are extremely important for the lesser talented and enable stables to try and place to advantage to the benefit of trainer, owner and punter. AWT should never have been part of the equation. How did a Christchurch City track qualify for funding from a 'provincial' fund? Entain has given the lack lustre NZTR executives more time to be dull however in three years Entain commitments change and benefactor becomes taxer. I find it very difficult to see the current executive doing anything remarkably different in 9 months time re programming so either the new chairman decides on a clear-out or the industry is another year closer to confirming it is a sunset industry. Tracks are a continuing deadly serious issue. There is no justification for the Ellerslie debacle. There is no justification for Hastings to continue to be a problem since the middle of last decade i.e. the last TEN years. Everyone in the NZ racing industry next month (except me, I will be overseas) will be holding their breath that all goes well with Ellerslie and Hastings. I truly hope all does goes well but if it does, the downside is the NZTR dullards will congratulate themselves on a job well done.
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Last night UK's premier middle distance race King George 6th and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (named after the late Queen's parents) was run on a track (Ascot) officially described as good to firm, good in places. It was won by an outsider 25/1 Goliath in a quick time, 4th fastest last dozen years although helped by strong gallop by a rival stables pacemaker. The favourite Auguste Rodin failed to run a decent race. His champion trainer Aidan O'Brian blamed the ground saying "It was nowhere near good to firm anywhere. It was good to soft in places. It was cut up on the rails and full of sand". I watched the replay and agree, it was a true dead track, bordering on soft or actually soft in places. The clerk of the course defended his decision to water the course on Friday evening saying "I don't think the description is vastly inaccurate". Sound familiar? BS and spin to defend the indefensible.
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Re handicapping in my view there should be no room for SWP races. They are an initiative by administrators who do not understand handicapping or gambling. The natural order from top to bottom is WFA, Open Handicaps, rating races, SW 2 and 3yo, SW maidens. The other area where administrators have lost the plot in the last decade or two is a fixation with the bling and glamour at the top and having no appreciation for grassroot racing. Most horses that win their first race find the next step up difficult, yet the current system immediately rates a maiden winner as R63. The argument is that the connections can decide if the next start in R65 is midweek or Saturday. (I am aware there is a sprinkling of R60 races in the calendar) My rebuttal is there should be regular 1-2 win races, both midweek and Saturday at R60 level. The 1-2 win means the older dropback horses have to focus on R65 races. Three things are achieved here. One; an owner gets a reasonable chance of another win with a battling/fair horse. Two; A younger, potentially progressive horse doesn't get the stuffing knocked out of it next start and can develop confidence; Three, some excellent betting fields will be created.