santanna mach

[the galah]

watched this horse today. It opened at $7 on the ff then just kept drifying close to race start time and it went out to $14 a minute out so i put mu $20 on it at $14 and that dropped it back into $11.

Now anyone who has watched this horse knows it lacks a sprint and is best driven in front. Wilson house the driver in fact has said that and has driven it that way in its last 4 starts.

Well today it begins fast like it always does,then to i think everyones surprise immediately slows and took a trail behind the complete outsider who's driver seemed surprised he would be given the lead. Then the horse did what it often does,pulling its head off to the extent house was unable to control it at one point crashing into the back of another at the 800m. 

The drift in the betting may have been some indication,but Houses tactics are very hard to follow.

[Brodie]

55 minutes ago, the galah said:

watched this horse today. It opened at $7 on the ff then just kept drifying close to race start time and it went out to $14 a minute out so i put mu $20 on it at $14 and that dropped it back into $11.

Now anyone who has watched this horse knows it lacks a sprint and is best driven in front. Wilson house the driver in fact has said that and has driven it that way in its last 4 starts.

Well today it begins fast like it always does,then to i think everyones surprise immediately slows and took a trail behind the complete outsider who's driver seemed surprised he would be given the lead. Then the horse did what it often does,pulling its head off to the extent house was unable to control it at one point crashing into the back of another at the 800m. 

The drift in the betting may have been some indication,but Houses tactics are very hard to follow.

Agreed, Wilson looked to hand up to Kennedy as soon as he was in front, which wasnt the thing to do.

Rangiora is a front runners course where leading up normally assures you of being in the money.

You would only hand up to a natural front runner you would think?

Santanna Mach has grown another leg recently as he went thru a patch of pretty average performances.

 

[the galah]

8 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Agreed, Wilson looked to hand up to Kennedy as soon as he was in front, which wasnt the thing to do.

Rangiora is a front runners course where leading up normally assures you of being in the money.

You would only hand up to a natural front runner you would think?

Santanna Mach has grown another leg recently as he went thru a patch of pretty average performances.

 

 

He would be hard to play cards against. He could be dealt the same cards,but play them with differing levels of confidence sometimes.

[Walt]

2 hours ago, the galah said:

 

He would be hard to play cards against. He could be dealt the same cards,but play them with differing levels of confidence sometimes.

House is good at setting a horse up for a punt. He seemed proud to have done just that in an Amateur Drivers race he won on 16th July on Franco Hoffman paying $9 to win. He said he'd told some people important to him the horse would win. Previous four starts were 7th, 6th,6th and 8th. Three of those runs he was driven by Wilson House. Some would say that is a fairly straight forward form line to set up a punt.  I'm not saying that's what unfolded but it's a possibility. Interesting that after Franco Hoffman won that race, he went on to win his next two races so was obviously nailed down despite the very average lead up form. 

[Brodie]

44 minutes ago, Walt said:

House is good at setting a horse up for a punt. He seemed proud to have done just that in an Amateur Drivers race he won on 16th July on Franco Hoffman paying $9 to win. He said he'd told some people important to him the horse would win. Previous four starts were 7th, 6th,6th and 8th. Three of those runs he was driven by Wilson House. Some would say that is a fairly straight forward form line to set up a punt.  I'm not saying that's what unfolded but it's a possibility. Interesting that after Franco Hoffman won that race, he went on to win his next two races so was obviously nailed down despite the very average lead up form. 

Personally heavily supported Franco Hoffman when it was in the NZ Amateur drivers race well over a month ago when I thought the way it was going was a cert to place!

Went very average and the way it went that day thought it was going go struggle to win another race!

Was driven that day by a North Islander!

Then it lined up in another amateur race with Michael in the cart and it grew many lengths so not sure what caused this to happen when it bolted in?.

As you say Walt, it then went on to win its next two starts against far better horses!!

Not sure what is going on but many of the House Stables horses are senior citizens and maybe they missed their afternoon kip when they go poor or had extra vitamins when they win?

Edited August 27, 2023 by Brodie

[Walt]

15 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Personally heavily supported Franco Hoffman when it was in the NZ Amateur drivers race well over a month ago when I thought the way it was going was a cert to place!

Went very average and the way it went that day thought it was going go struggle to win another race!

Was driven that day by a North Islander!

Then it lined up in another amateur race with Michael in the cart and it grew many lengths so not sure what caused this to happen when it bolted in?.

As you say Walt, it then went on to win its next two starts against far better horses!!

Not sure what is going on but many of the House Stables horses are senior citizens and maybe they missed their afternoon kip when they go poor or had extra vitamins when they win?

Can't disagree with your observations Brodie. Neither of us are accusing him of anything. Just sharing our observations. 

Another observation is the considerable overall improvement of almost all the House runners in recent months since they stopped tripping up to Palmerston North. You'd see a House runner going an ok race at Addington for a fourth or fifth and you'd think that was a solid performance for a House runner and put it in your book for when it next trekked North to the very average Palmy meetings or deep South for easier pickings than Addington. That mindset has suddenly gone by the wayside. Unsure if they have had their training regime tweeked up a couple of notches or Michael is extra keen to have young Wilson established as a driver on the up. Couldn't blame him on either score if that is correct. 

[the galah]

I don't know about setting them up for a punt myself. 

personally i think you need to prepare before backing any wilson house driven horse.Make sure you double the heart medication to keep the blood pressure at a safe level,then get a bottle of scotch and some prozac pills ready for after the finish.Also have a direct line to someone at anger management.I know several punters who think that.

I agree a key strategy of that stable is to drive them quiet to drop down in grade.

They get an awful lot of winners and that santanna mach is only a rated 44 horse,despite winning 3 country cup races this year and winning a couple of starts ago.Compare that to how non win horses are rated,and it i seems a bit crazy,but thats the rating system.

Obviously that stable(including its drivers)are great for the sport,just not so great for the punters.

Edited August 27, 2023 by the galah

[the galah]

14 hours ago, Walt said:

House is good at setting a horse up for a punt. He seemed proud to have done just that in an Amateur Drivers race he won on 16th July on Franco Hoffman paying $9 to win. He said he'd told some people important to him the horse would win. Previous four starts were 7th, 6th,6th and 8th. Three of those runs he was driven by Wilson House. Some would say that is a fairly straight forward form line to set up a punt.  I'm not saying that's what unfolded but it's a possibility. Interesting that after Franco Hoffman won that race, he went on to win his next two races so was obviously nailed down despite the very average lead up form. 

Actually it would be interesting to know how the tab bookies came to the conclusion yesterday that they should push out his price from $7 to $14 close to start time.

Obviously they had no money for him,but how did they know punters would not come for him at the high price.

It would be interesting to know how the bookies do that.

The pattern in all races seems to be the bookies monitor certain peoples accounts and get notifications of which horses those punters are backing on,then they make adjustments to the prices.

maybe there are people out there who actually bet on the house stable and maybe the bookies saw they had invested elsewhere and lengthened the odds because of that.I don't follow the house stable enough myself to know whether there is a pattern to the stables prices.

Johhny mac is a horse from the stable who i am thinking will soon completely turn his form around. He has only run 1 3rd place in the last couple of seasons,but has actually being going really good races.He didn't look quite ready to go the other night and may need another start or two,but  i think he is one from the stable that they are waiting to let loose now hes dropped so far back in the ratings. 

[Walt]

20 hours ago, the galah said:

Actually it would be interesting to know how the tab bookies came to the conclusion yesterday that they should push out his price from $7 to $14 close to start time.

Obviously they had no money for him,but how did they know punters would not come for him at the high price.

It would be interesting to know how the bookies do that.

The pattern in all races seems to be the bookies monitor certain peoples accounts and get notifications of which horses those punters are backing on,then they make adjustments to the prices.

maybe there are people out there who actually bet on the house stable and maybe the bookies saw they had invested elsewhere and lengthened the odds because of that.I don't follow the house stable enough myself to know whether there is a pattern to the stables prices.

Johhny mac is a horse from the stable who i am thinking will soon completely turn his form around. He has only run 1 3rd place in the last couple of seasons,but has actually being going really good races.He didn't look quite ready to go the other night and may need another start or two,but  i think he is one from the stable that they are waiting to let loose now hes dropped so far back in the ratings. 

Some excellent points Galah.

As you know if there is enough money on a certain runner, several others will get the blows. If it's a big drift, it could be related to the amount of interest in the race or familiar patterns of "not today from a stable" that the alleged bookies pick up on.

[Gammalite]

On 8/28/2023 at 7:32 AM, the galah said:

It would be interesting to know how the bookies do that.

The pattern in all races seems to be the bookies monitor certain peoples accounts and get notifications of which horses those punters are backing on,then they make adjustments to the prices.

Yes the bookies have to be very careful with their odds. It's a huge thing every Saturday in Australia with stunningly huge bets going on in all the metro racing cities. The Betting effected by Betting Syndicates , whom pool a large amount and set out to beat the books . A bit like Boys Get Paid I spose , but the bets are spread a lot more as quite a few are 'attacking'

They even encourage the 'average Joe Punter' to join in this way these days, and relentlessly advertise 'Bet with Mates' option is the way to go , as this obviously forces the Joe to put in more cash each week than he would on his own. 😂. a very clever con job. Get your mates to help you lose and support their cause lol....

In harness racing they can't do it . there's too much of a risk element in the running . Gallopers can come from last to win. Pacers usually cannot. etc. On a smaller scale you can get inside knowledge and make a win that way. There was a 'Boat' race at Albion last Saturday night that paid off well for a few. Trainers and Drivers get away with it as they go around so often , most races that one 'boat' doesn't warrant a lot of attention now and then, and keeps people (these punters/owners) interested.

[the galah]

2 hours ago, Gammalite said:

Yes the bookies have to be very careful with their odds. It's a huge thing every Saturday in Australia with stunningly huge bets going on in all the metro racing cities. The Betting effected by Betting Syndicates , whom pool a large amount and set out to beat the books . A bit like Boys Get Paid I spose , but the bets are spread a lot more as quite a few are 'attacking'

They even encourage the 'average Joe Punter' to join in this way these days, and relentlessly advertise 'Bet with Mates' option is the way to go , as this obviously forces the Joe to put in more cash each week than he would on his own. 😂. a very clever con job. Get your mates to help you lose and support their cause lol....

In harness racing they can't do it . there's too much of a risk element in the running . Gallopers can come from last to win. Pacers usually cannot. etc. On a smaller scale you can get inside knowledge and make a win that way. There was a 'Boat' race at Albion last Saturday night that paid off well for a few. Trainers and Drivers get away with it as they go around so often , most races that one 'boat' doesn't warrant a lot of attention now and then, and keeps people (these punters/owners) interested.

Do you think the australian trots seem to serve up a betting product where it seems the punter is outside the loop. I watch australian harness occasionally and my interpretation of it never seems to change.

You obviously would know a lot more than me,but my impressions are these.

In nsw at menangle its like theres a group of 3 or 4 trainers and drivers who know which horse is primed to go and they all drive accordingly to suit the one that the money has come for. Then you go to the country tracks and the lower grade horses and less stakes and it seems almost every one is trying.

Queensland its like a theres a handful of  drivers and trainers that have looked at where they have drawn and decided,not today,just drive it quiet and wait for next week. Its like they have got someone to back their horse to lose on betfair and even if a race is run to suit,they  don't take the gaps and prefer to stay on the fence. 

In victoria nearly everyone seems to be trying,except in the races where you have an emma stewart trained runner and its like they know it will win and have given up beforehand.Often those races have more than 1 stewart trained runner and they just team drive.

Tasmania,well with all the ben yole runners and all the terrible publicity,i don't know how that state continues to run harness racing. 

All 4 of the above makes punters not trust harness racing and must negatively. impact betting.

In south australia,everyone gives the impression they always try,yet they have the smallest stakes.

same in western australia. they seem to at least be trying all the time.

Maybe i'm wrong about some of the above,but only south australia and western australia are the places i would place a bet if i was having one.

Compare that to nz. I think everyone is going out there with the intent to achieve the best possible result.

Its very rare for a punter to question a nz drivers intent.

The santanna mach drive that this thread was about, i think was not a lack of intent to achieve the best result,as it makes no sense to not try when your horse is a very good winning chance.I think that was just a case of a very poor tactical drive.

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by the galah

[Gammalite]

1 hour ago, the galah said:

All 4 of the above makes punters not trust harness racing and must negatively. impact betting.

Mate , you would be the best stipe going !! . 100% agree with everything you noticed in each state. Fits to a Tee , what is happening. 

Yes indeed, none of those things really help the betting product , ( i just back gallops now) 

I think team driving for Emma Stewart sounds bad , but upon watching all her great record in age group races in Victoria , I liken it to sometimes being like Allstars . They are great at getting a 'few' into a quality/group/ or sires stakes race and therefore drive to get the win without nullifying each others chance and not minding which one takes victory most of the time.

Tasmania is better racing when they run the State Feature races during the year. as Yole is Not good enough to have any runners in feature races . He just is still  to this day, just 'stack loading' the slowest class races he can find. Australia's leading trainer ? can't even win a feature in his home state . so embarassing for harness racing.

New Zealand harness racing is still a nice product , but the Fields are often still too big ?. Need to go with 10 runners. and the horses don't race often enough to follow . because of the weather a lot are rested through winter .  just keep rolling all year round throughout Oz. so a couple of reasons there , someone having a punt like myself or Brodie even as he said , won't be on.....  

[the galah]

On 28/08/2023 at 9:32 AM, the galah said:

 

Johhny mac is a horse from the stable who i am thinking will soon completely turn his form around. He has only run 1 3rd place in the last couple of seasons,but has actually being going really good races.He didn't look quite ready to go the other night and may need another start or two,but  i think he is one from the stable that they are waiting to let loose now hes dropped so far back in the ratings. 

A wilson house ,wake me when its over drive in race 3 tonight on johnny mac..

I wasn't on,so had a chuckle,but he must be getting close to being ready to let loose? Problem is he just killed any next up dividend by coming home too quick and you still can't be sure what he will do next time. Oh well.