Brodie Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Great to see that Kaikoura this year has 8 races programmed for the Sunday afternoon. Personally didnt see the sense in only having the 6 races on the Sunday that they have run over the last few years, so 8 races is a far better result! The races are being run at 20 minute intervals so very quick fire, which I suppose is good for participation viewing but is there enough time for punters to reinvest, if they are allowed to wager? Not sure why they start the meeting at 3.35pm when they surely can start it an hour or more earlier? Must be a reason, but could someone please advise me of the logic?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackie Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Maybe a World Rugby Cup Final for people to get over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 5 hours ago, Brodie said: Great to see that Kaikoura this year has 8 races programmed for the Sunday afternoon. Personally didnt see the sense in only having the 6 races on the Sunday that they have run over the last few years, so 8 races is a far better result! The races are being run at 20 minute intervals so very quick fire, which I suppose is good for participation viewing but is there enough time for punters to reinvest, if they are allowed to wager? Not sure why they start the meeting at 3.35pm when they surely can start it an hour or more earlier? Must be a reason, but could someone please advise me of the logic?? How about the Methven mile day? Should be right up your alley Brodie 😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted October 25, 2023 Author Share Posted October 25, 2023 11 hours ago, Nowornever said: How about the Methven mile day? Should be right up your alley Brodie 😂 Stupidity, this programming of short distance racing!! Stands over 1700m on grass is lunacy!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted October 26, 2023 Author Share Posted October 26, 2023 (edited) Methven off for the day!! Snowing apparently and who wants to be in the cold watching 1700metre races? Edited October 26, 2023 by Brodie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 59 minutes ago, Brodie said: Methven off for the day!! Snowing apparently and who wants to be in the cold watching 1700metre races? More like sleety showers early this morning but hardly any rain and track good enough to run on. Lets call it off anyway because we don't want to even risk damaging the track might be a better description. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newmarket Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 Here’s a shot of the fixed odds on race 2 tomorrow at Kaikoura….wow, I thought Entain was going to give us better fixed odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 21 hours ago, Newmarket said: Here’s a shot of the fixed odds on race 2 tomorrow at Kaikoura….wow, I thought Entain was going to give us better fixed odds? I think that's called "the bookies haven't got a clue so we will try try to keep every horse safe." Have been seeing that more and more over the last couple of years. Closing prices miles away from opening again. Good for the punters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted October 29, 2023 Author Share Posted October 29, 2023 24 minutes ago, Nowornever said: I think that's called "the bookies haven't got a clue so we will try try to keep every horse safe." Have been seeing that more and more over the last couple of years. Closing prices miles away from opening again. Good for the punters. I agree that the Harness Bookies are keeping the fixed odds far too safe for far too long. The So called Bookies open up many of the fields with 5 horses paying under $2 for Top 3. Just not worth the effort for risk and return now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 14 minutes ago, Brodie said: I agree that the Harness Bookies are keeping the fixed odds far too safe for far too long. The So called Bookies open up many of the fields with 5 horses paying under $2 for Top 3. Just not worth the effort for risk and return now! Unless you know they got a price wrong and it is going to cave in, the way they have the prices set you are better off backing outsiders late (because often they can nearly double their price in the last 15mins) and favourites early (because they are keeping all horses safe the favourites are often paying overs the way the percentages work). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted October 29, 2023 Author Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Nowornever said: Unless you know they got a price wrong and it is going to cave in, the way they have the prices set you are better off backing outsiders late (because often they can nearly double their price in the last 15mins) and favourites early (because they are keeping all horses safe the favourites are often paying overs the way the percentages work). If they are going to open up horses at “unders” then they should be allowing the punters on for reasonable amounts and get rid of these heavy restrictions they gave enforced on punters! Unless they do this, there pool of punters us going to continue to reduce! They are not allowing noteworthy amounts going on, going by the Trackside announcements! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Nowornever said: Unless you know they got a price wrong and it is going to cave in, the way they have the prices set you are better off backing outsiders late (because often they can nearly double their price in the last 15mins) and favourites early (because they are keeping all horses safe the favourites are often paying overs the way the percentages work). Personally i think its quite rare that you get overs for favorites when the markets come out. What you do get,in my opinion,is some market movers who are favorites and you could say well if only i had got on earlier. Personally i think that approach greatly oversimplifies things and misses the big picture. If you want an example of what i mean.Just look at the whales selections. 100% of the time they are market movers inwards. If you want to lose,back the whales selections.Its guaranteed.Its not because he is a poor judge,he is a very good judge,but his selections are exactly the ones the tab wants you to bet on.That is,horses with a good winning chance who they open at shorter than realistic odds,then can create them as win movers in,and attract even more betting at reducing odds,which are even greater in the TAB's overall favour. Your guaranteed to lose overall because you don't make money betting on horses that open up paying about 70% of what is a realistic dividend,let alone at the further reduced price. As proof of what i have just said,on another forum they have been keeping a record this month of his selections,because like on here,most believe the tab promote him,because he is their biggest asset to sucker punters in to backing on horses at unrealistic prices.. His strike rate is 33 selctions for 8 winners and 11 placings. Pretty good really.That is until you look at his returns.For a $1 e/w hes losing about 18% of his money. 75% of the horses hes selected ,who have placed ,have paid $1.50 or less for a place.5 of his 8 winners have paid under $2.30. So for the whale to have broken even,he would have to be getting on at odds at least 18% higher than what other punters are mostly getting on at. Maybe he is,but if you think you are going to beat the TAB by betting on FF on most races,trust me you won't . I recently was told by a bookie that i returned a profit 16 months in a row,so thats why they have a system set up which will see anything i back,reducing in odds. Now i used to be a person who bet on every harness race run in nz every year. Well i have come to the realisation that while i could still make money,since the bookies target my account,it will never be at the rate i did before,and now i simply find that the level of profit no longer justifies the amount of time needed to achive that. So i simply have all but given up betting on most races. And i'm a punter who used to put 90% of my betting on the tote. I had more and more changed to fixed odds as the tote prices were being reduced because the tab was monitoring my account and reducing the ff odds,thus reducing the tote odds as they always follow. Now i believe you can still make money,but for me i believe no more good sized tote betting. I believe the the way to make money now is,as nowornever has suggested,recognise what horses are over the odds when the initial markets come out. Now i've been watching,and i would say that on average there is only 1 or 2 of those at most a day,that can win.Some days none at all. I do agree with nowornever that roughies blow out in price near the end,but i have also been keeping a close eye on how the tab bookies operate in that respect. Most of the times that only occurs in the last minute or two and interestingly,sometimes after the markets seem to have closed. For example nowornever last week you discussed the horse portelli. Well i van tell you i actuallly tried to back that horse a place as they were lining up. The price that came up jumped to $9 as i tried to get it on,but the tote closed as they staryed before i could confirm it. Well when i looked at the website it had portelli closed at $11 ff place. Well, to me it was jsut another example of the ff odds being adjusted after people can no longer get a bet on. Edited October 29, 2023 by the galah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted October 29, 2023 Author Share Posted October 29, 2023 (edited) I actually now believe that yes you can still make money, but the way the TAB operates now, it is not worth the effort! When they only allow you on for a small percentage of what you want and the odds are not what I believe they should be, I am currently giving it a miss! The TAB may think it is no loss to them and in fact a total win for them! However, the TAB need punters far more than Brodie having to punt, to make a living! The amount of people that now go oncourse to actually punt, is microscopic to what used to go several years ago. There is no real reason now for punters to go oncourse unless you are an owner or you go to get cash from winning tickets. Things really need to change or there will be so much damage caused to the industry! The days of kids of punters and families attending the races is just not happening anymore, and this is what has kept harness going, albeit nowhere near as flourishing as it was!! Edited October 29, 2023 by Brodie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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