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Ultimate Machete: A false favourite for the Cup?


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Guest CrossCodes
On 15/10/2018 at 2:25 PM, CrossCodes said:

Quite possibly looking at the weakest cup field we have seen in years, the Aussie raiders might look our cup class horses look silly if they come over.

Surely Chicago Bull has put his hand up as the favourite and horse to beat in the cup after that brutal win tonight!

Nothing behind could have any excuses and he couldn't have been more impressive, he's just a super stayer who will love 3200m!

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4 minutes ago, CrossCodes said:

Surely Chicago Bull has put his hand up as the favourite and horse to beat in the cup after that brutal win tonight!

Nothing behind could have any excuses and he couldn't have been more impressive, he's just a super stayer who will love 3200m!

I agree, but apart from Jacks legend what did he beat? And believe me i have been backing Chicago since the tab included him in the nz cup betting. If he can cans away in the nz cup like he did tonight he'll be toast....very happy to have got $2.10ff on him tonight against practically a c4-5 field!

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1 minute ago, Flagship uberalles said:

I agree, but apart from Jacks legend what did he beat? And believe me i have been backing Chicago since the tab included him in the nz cup betting. If he can cans away in the nz cup like he did tonight he'll be toast....very happy to have got $2.10ff on him tonight against practically a c4-5 field!

It's the manner of his win that was impressive. I personally think he is good enough to can can away and still be in the finish in the Cup. 

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Guest CrossCodes

It was more the way he did it rather than what he beat.

And a great, aggressive drive, if that was a a kiwi driver and he had missed away like that they would have sat back last and just let him run on late.

At least we will get a good run for our money come cup day, he won't miss away again, it was a very jam packed start tonight, and he will be better again left handed.

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26 minutes ago, CrossCodes said:

It was more the way he did it rather than what he beat.

And a great, aggressive drive, if that was a a kiwi driver and he had missed away like that they would have sat back last and just let him run on late.

A very good point about the drive. By contrast, I was scratching my head about Z Butcher's effort. So come on you driving experts, help me out on this one — why, when your main (only?) rival has galloped away and is at least 50 metres behind you, would you then proceed to walk round and turn the race into a sprint home? Wouldn't the best strategy be to put the hammer down and make it physically impossible for the laggard to ever catch you?

As I say, I know bugger-all about driving horses, but a golden rule of cross-country running was "never give a sucker an even break". So if somebody faster than you fell at a fence or slipped in some mud, you took off in an attempt to take full advantage of it. What you certainly didn't do (well, some gentlemen may have, but I was never one of those) was slow down and allow the fallen rival to catch up! Yet that's precisely what Z Butcher did.

Maybe it's different at the horses, but I don't see how.

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6 minutes ago, Basil said:

A very good point about the drive. By contrast, I was scratching my head about Z Butcher's effort. So come on you driving experts, help me out on this one — why, when your main (only?) rival has galloped away and is at least 50 metres behind you, would you then proceed to walk round and turn the race into a sprint home? Wouldn't the best strategy be to put the hammer down and make it physically impossible for the laggard to ever catch you?

As I say, I know bugger-all about driving horses, but a golden rule of cross-country running was "never give a sucker an even break". So if somebody faster than you fell at a fence or slipped in some mud, you took off in an attempt to take full advantage of it. What you certainly didn't do (well, some gentlemen may have, but I was never one of those) was slow down and allow the fallen rival to catch up! Yet that's precisely what Z Butcher did.

Maybe it's different at the horses, but I don't see how.

Quite right Basil, it wasn't until the 3rd 1/4 that z Butcher put the foot down but by then Gary Hall had a lap full of horse and it was only a matter of time

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Guest CrossCodes

Agree Basil about the Zac Butcher drive.

Even more strange when they interviewed Zac earlier in the night and he seemed very bullish about beating Chicago Bull, and even said if he made a good beginning and got the front he would run them into the ground.

Well he did make a great beginning and led easy but did let the Bull into the race, maybe the kiwi drivers idea of setting up a fast pace is a lot difference to the Ozzie drivers.

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11 hours ago, globederby12 said:

I posted elsewhere that the NZ stand record over 2200 was 2.43.4. The Bull has run 2.41 flat. 

 

Well yes, but all that really tells us is how soft the old record was, and how rarely open-class horses race over the 2200m stand at Alexandra Park. For some perspective, CB's mile rate last night (1.57.7) was 0.6 secs slower than Lazarus went over 2 miles in the 2016 Cup. And the last mile (which is a fair chunk of a 2200m race) last night consisted of two halves of 63 and 54 — surely that's a 'sprint home' in anybody's book?

Don't get me wrong, it was a great performance by CB, one that confirmed what I've previously said about him being one of the 2-3 leading hopes for the Cup this year on class alone. But that doesn't change the fact (well, the fact according to moi ?) that Z Butcher made it a lot easier for him than he could have.

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21 hours ago, CrossCodes said:

Agree Basil about the Zac Butcher drive.

Even more strange when they interviewed Zac earlier in the night and he seemed very bullish about beating Chicago Bull, and even said if he made a good beginning and got the front he would run them into the ground.

Well he did make a great beginning and led easy but did let the Bull into the race, maybe the kiwi drivers idea of setting up a fast pace is a lot difference to the Ozzie drivers.

Zac probably listened to the whale, he reckoned jacks legend wins. Gee, those paying for his tips recently while have thin wallets.,

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