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NOTICE TO BOAY'ers: Major Update Coming ×
Bit Of A Yarn

Punting 1.01


mardigras

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Just now, FeelTheFear said:

Yep,  knew that was coming. Good while it lasted

 

It's about debating facts FTF

Grass decided you knew your stuff

Its weeks since you tipped a winner....

To be brutally honest...what you're doing has absolutely no basis for long term profit

Simply analysing various pieces of form as you're doing...without an algorithm attached to its Ass...

...simply WONT WORK...

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2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Just put him on block/hide and no one reply directly!  Good thread so far.  Mardi Gras contribution +110 Thomaas so far -5.

Larf a minute stuff

Grass admits "I haven't got the answers"

Im a professional here...he won't punt here

You taken your cop the f on drink today?

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2 hours ago, Newmarket said:

This will make you laff, 

About 3 or 4 years back, i opened betfair acc. Only account i had opened apart from nz tab. Googled a bit of info laying/ betting, but so many people had so many ideas, so this is what i did. 

Certain aus races, i would place $5 back bet on one runner, and would place lay bet on one runner, to profit $5. It was over xmas time, and i had plenty of time. First 2 weeks i made money each day, i was amazed that i had come up with this basic betting system. 

About time i increase my stake?. Only made money one day out of 6 days betting, my bank was gone, very funny. 

I have recently started looking at laying again, hopefully using boost bet at beteasy, laying off same horse betfair. 

What i need, is an app that calculates what i need to place on lay bet? Know of any or best way i can do this quickly. 

 

 

Good story Newmarket. 

I'm sure there are many others that have tried things like that. 

Always some good stories in the punting game.

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54 minutes ago, VC! said:

The Big Bash (cricket) is about to start and is one of the easier trading opportunities around the T20 match goes for about 3.5 hours nearly every match 50 million is matched that equates to 200,000 per ball or 1.2 million per over you can back a team at 7 and the very next ball lay them at 5

Yes, absolutely massive betting on those games and cricket in general. Also big tennis tournaments can have massive point to point swings.

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3 hours ago, VC! said:

The Big Bash (cricket) is about to start and is one of the easier trading opportunities around the T20 match goes for about 3.5 hours nearly every match 50 million is matched that equates to 200,000 per ball or 1.2 million per over you can back a team at 7 and the very next ball lay them at 5

I think it is worth doing video I watch it once at normal speed then once at +6

At +6 you notice more how less often horses are making up ground probably a good tool for someone starting out to learn how tracks play

VC, your right, whole family loves it. Great to have a bet live betfair. Remember 2 or 3 years back, making heaps of a game, it was when chris lynn went crazy with those sixes to win game, think it was new years eve. 

One thing i have noticed betfair, if your quick, on some nz and aus sports, sometimes you can beat overseas punters when we can see game change, gotta be quick with short delay. 

I love darts, but with most top games overseas, makes it hard with delay. 

Go big bash

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30 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

VC, your right, whole family loves it. Great to have a bet live betfair. Remember 2 or 3 years back, making heaps of a game, it was when chris lynn went crazy with those sixes to win game, think it was new years eve. 

One thing i have noticed betfair, if your quick, on some nz and aus sports, sometimes you can beat overseas punters when we can see game change, gotta be quick with short delay. 

I love darts, but with most top games overseas, makes it hard with delay. 

Go big bash

Taking the issue of time delays a bit further - things like courtsiding have been rife although in some places you can be thrown out (not sure if actually deemed illegal anywhere). People going to games like the cricket or tennis with that extra bit of time to relay info and have teams of people acting on that margin of time. 

With big money and odds changing ball to ball and point to point, a serious advantage not based on skill.

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3 hours ago, Thomass said:

 

PUNTING 101 is about selecting winners first...then staking...that's the easy part

This is where nutter differs from the intelligent punters, nuts doesn't get it's not about winners, it's about value. I can find shitloads of winners but many represent poor value and are losing propositions long term. 

 

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10 minutes ago, barryb said:

This is where nutter differs from the intelligent punters, nuts doesn't get it's not about winners, it's about value. I can find shitloads of winners but many represent poor value and are losing propositions long term. 

 

And staking plans are fine. But in my view, if you can't profit from level stakes, you are likely to struggle just the same with a staking plan. And I can take a staking plan and apply it to bets where the staking plan will perform a lot worse than level stakes - and it may even lose where level stakes did not.

Staking plans generally are a long term thing intended to gain greater returns over a long period based on chance relative to price. Each day of punting is short term and highly unlikely to make any difference overall. You can just adjust your punting each day to suit. Essentially run a day based staking plan, rather than an individual bet based one. I doubt our resident idiot even understands that.

Edited by mardigras
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I might stop reading this thread, it is frightening, the sophistication and figures involved.:)

Moral of the story, unless you are a punter just having a wager for a bit of enjoyment, then don't kid yourself you can make money unless you get up to speed with the knowledge and techniques involved

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1 hour ago, Newmarket said:

VC, your right, whole family loves it. Great to have a bet live betfair. Remember 2 or 3 years back, making heaps of a game, it was when chris lynn went crazy with those sixes to win game, think it was new years eve. 

One thing i have noticed betfair, if your quick, on some nz and aus sports, sometimes you can beat overseas punters when we can see game change, gotta be quick with short delay. 

I love darts, but with most top games overseas, makes it hard with delay. 

Go big bash

The purists traditionalists dinosaurs they hate this form of the game (Poor Zak lol)

But crowd figures TV ratings the young people they love this form of the game

That young Uni kid who took that one handed catch just over the fence and won 50k made headlines over here in Aus imagine how many young kids are going to be wanting to go to the T20s in NZ now

The Heat are probably the team most kiwis would be following with DV as their coach and Baz as Captain 

Yip the bash brothers sure can turn it on

If anyone gets a chance to watch the Big Bash open the Betfair App and watch how much is matched ball by ball

There is approximately a 15 second delay watching the game live in your lounge room so I sit there with my BF app open and tell my mates there’s going to be a wicket next ball or this ones going over the fence and they say how do you know that and I say I swear I think I’m getting ESP

Mardi explained it perfectly people actually  fly to the games around Australia just to get that edge for betting purposes they have a 15 second advantage over people punting it from their lounge rooms and with such a massive volume back or lay they make some serious $$$ as Mardi said no skill I guess they could argue and say who needs skill

2 years ago approx 40 million was matched per game

Last year 50 million 

Could they hit 60 million this year ??????

 

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30 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Essentially run a day based staking plan, rather than an individual bet based one. I doubt our resident idiot even understands that.

I run a month long one, increasing bet sizes during a winning run & then the following month revert back to a higher starting point if a profitable month preceeds. 

During a losing month I maintain the bet size and do not reduce (that cements in loses), if you are staking at a tiny % of your bank you will live to fight another day.

This has served me exceptionally well for many a yr.

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2 minutes ago, hesi said:

I might stop reading this thread, it is frightening, the sophistication and figures involved.:)

Moral of the story, unless you are a punter just having a wager for a bit of enjoyment, then don't kid yourself you can make money unless you get up to speed with the knowledge and techniques involved

Absolutely the opposite is true, its relatively simple to win long time if the right focus and approach is used.

Let dipshits look for blinkers and other nutty ideas, you spend the time getting the pricing right & ONLY invest on the obvious overs, be disciplined and anyone can win.

Have a pool of fun money as well for the random fun bets to help you maintain focus.

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8 minutes ago, hesi said:

I recall your best day tipping on BOAY Barry by a country mile, was oncourse, Waipa, te Aroha can't remember, seeing the horses in the parade ring

How much of a factor is this

It certainly helps for sure, but like Blinkers its a small factor and is grossly overstated.

It might give me a 1-5% edge on the day, if seeing what a horse looks like was that important Bevan Sweeney would be a super star punter, which he is not.

Its like anything Hesi, you can have the knowledge but not know how to apply it, as is the case with 95% of people connected with the industry.

Take fishing for example, why do 20% of those who fish recreationally catch 80% of all caught. Punters are the same the world over in that they repeat the same mistake every Saturday. Those who catch less fish do so because they take the wrong bait, wrong gear, wrong spot etc & want a miracle fish as well, they might get lucky occassionally like punters do, but most like punters go home empty handed.

Edited by barryb
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1 minute ago, barryb said:

It certainly helps for sure, but like Blinkers its a small factor and is grossly overstated.

It might give me a 1-5% edge on the day, it seeing what a horse looks like was that important Bevan Sweeney would be a super star punter, which he is not.

Its like anything Hesi, you can have the knowledge but not know how to apply it, as is the case with 95% of people connected with the industry.

Take fishing for example, why do 20% of those who fish recreationally catch 80% of all caught. Punters are the same the world over in that they repeat the same mistake every Saturday.

Yep., I have a son that fits that category, it's great because we always come back with fish, but can be a bit hard to handle on the day though

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21 minutes ago, hesi said:

I might stop reading this thread, it is frightening, the sophistication and figures involved.:)

Moral of the story, unless you are a punter just having a wager for a bit of enjoyment, then don't kid yourself you can make money unless you get up to speed with the knowledge and techniques involved

Heck no. Everyone is different. It's about identifying a method for you that works. Gives you the value component barryb is talking about and delivers the results. Some will use very simple methods and others like me use more complex methods. No method is better than the other if they both work. 

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You go well Alan I’m not calling you a loser BTW

Like Basil said if you have the right focus and approach anyone can win you fit into that category just need to get out of your comfort zone that was more the meaning of my post you learn make mistakes and keep learning

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