Punting 1.01

[barryb]

& look Hesi, I am not trying to be an expert here & from what I can see neither is Mardi.

I have some good knowledge that I can contribute here to help others as I have been helped, the thread where I have placed tips would indicate that I at least know something that works.

Mardi is clearly a very knowledgeable punter & has willingly posted great stuff here, I asked Mardi for his opinion on my selections over the weekend on here & a certain looney saw that as a weakness. Thats becuase he is not willing to learn from others & knowsitall already.

Would be great to be in that category but I know of NO one punting who can't learn more or at the very least hone things better.

[FeelTheFear]

9 minutes ago, barryb said:

& look Hesi, I am not trying to be an expert here & from what I can see neither is Mardi.

I have some good knowledge that I can contribute here to help others as I have been helped, the thread where I have placed tips would indicate that I at least know something that works.

Mardi is clearly a very knowledgeable punter & has willingly posted great stuff here, I asked Mardi for his opinion on my selections over the weekend on here & a certain looney saw that as a weakness. Thats becuase he is not willing to learn from others & knowsitall already.

Would be great to be in that category but I know of NO one punting who can't learn more or at the very least hone things better.

I am learning heaps from you both. Thank you

[hesi]

13 minutes ago, barryb said:

& look Hesi, I am not trying to be an expert here & from what I can see neither is Mardi.

I have some good knowledge that I can contribute here to help others as I have been helped, the thread where I have placed tips would indicate that I at least know something that works.

Mardi is clearly a very knowledgeable punter & has willingly posted great stuff here, I asked Mardi for his opinion on my selections over the weekend on here & a certain looney saw that as a weakness. Thats becuase he is not willing to learn from others & knowsitall already.

Would be great to be in that category but I know of NO one punting who can't learn more or at the very least hone things better.

All good, great stuff, if you think you can stop learning, then time to chuck it in

[Thomass]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

& look Hesi, I am not trying to be an expert here & from what I can see neither is Mardi.

I have some good knowledge that I can contribute here to help others as I have been helped, the thread where I have placed tips would indicate that I at least know something that works.

Mardi is clearly a very knowledgeable punter & has willingly posted great stuff here, I asked Mardi for his opinion on my selections over the weekend on here & a certain looney saw that as a weakness. Thats becuase he is not willing to learn from others & knowsitall already.

Would be great to be in that category but I know of NO one punting who can't learn more or at the very least hone things better.

It's not about tips Bazz...

Its about your analysis of how those decisions came about

You state "follow Ted....Hes Gold" as one of your two 'golds'

...and grass says "I don't have the answers"...after 20000 Stimulations

...that's not stimulating at all

F in marvellous

At least I'm willing to tell the poor losers out there the secret to my success

In fact...there's a movie of that name

Should do a re make...pm me

You can be the Clapper Loader

[FeelTheFear]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

& look Hesi, I am not trying to be an expert here & from what I can see neither is Mardi.

I have some good knowledge that I can contribute here to help others as I have been helped, the thread where I have placed tips would indicate that I at least know something that works.

Mardi is clearly a very knowledgeable punter & has willingly posted great stuff here, I asked Mardi for his opinion on my selections over the weekend on here & a certain looney saw that as a weakness. Thats becuase he is not willing to learn from others & knowsitall already.

Would be great to be in that category but I know of NO one punting who can't learn more or at the very least hone things better.

At least we all put up the bets before the race. 

[mardigras]

7 hours ago, FeelTheFear said:

At least we all put up the bets before the race. 

And good on you for that FTF. Anyone that thinks punting first and foremost is about winners is nuts. Here's a blue print if you want winners. Back the favourite in every race. In NZ, that'll usually give you close to 20 winners each week. In Oz, 30 winners most Saturdays. Brilliant. Like the blue print, a great recipe for losing.

[curious]

48 minutes ago, mardigras said:

And good on you for that FTF. Anyone that thinks punting first and foremost is about winners is nuts. Here's a blue print if you want winners. Back the favourite in every race. In NZ, that'll usually give you close to 20 winners each week. In Oz, 30 winners most Saturdays. Brilliant. Like the blue print, a great recipe for losing.

Good idea. ROI would probably be more predictable too. A steady return of 80-85% of turnover.

[mardigras]

8 minutes ago, curious said:

Good idea. ROI would probably be more predictable too. A steady return of 80-85% of turnover.

Yep, the same as the blue print. What a surprise. Maybe try a dartboard.

[hesi]

Would you guys who are up to speed(Mardi, Barry, FTF, VC, Curious, Thomas), to illustrate the system you use, be prepared to independently have a go at say one race this Sat, maybe the Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie.

It is not an exercise in proving one person is right or wrong but an illustration.

 

Edited December 3, 2018 by hesi

[mardigras]

49 minutes ago, hesi said:

Would you guys who are up to speed(Mardi, Barry, FTF, VC, Curious, Thomas), to illustrate the system you use, be prepared to independently have a go at say one race this Sat, maybe the Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie.

It is not an exercise in proving one person is right or wrong but an illustration.

 

Fine by me. I'm quite happy to show my chances for each horse and some of how I arrived at that.

Of course, anyone can put up their 'assessment' of chance. But it will only illustrate an approach, and the result of the race won't define what is workable long term.

Edited December 3, 2018 by hesi

[Thomass]

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

And good on you for that FTF. Anyone that thinks punting first and foremost is about winners is nuts. Here's a blue print if you want winners. Back the favourite in every race. In NZ, that'll usually give you close to 20 winners each week. In Oz, 30 winners most Saturdays. Brilliant. Like the blue print, a great recipe for losing.

Finding winners at VALUE is EVERYTHING...most know that

As long suspected you massively lay...150/6....that's what statsman do...and vast records of time are easily analysed...your 20000 simulations as you say

You said you "haven't got the answer" to winners...that's why you lay....and why Bazz says "follow Teds tips"...

Money management/ staking is next...easily found on Google

The Thoroughbred investment punt/ 'riddle' in NZ is vastly different to other countries...

The same horses race on many different tracks, left handed/ right handed, puggy/ loose...some like the higher price winners that brings...

Big time players like Zeljko have an algorithmic system....

It takes the emotion out of it..and Bazz got that right...that's one of the big problems

Emotional punting

 

[Thomass]

37 minutes ago, hesi said:

Would you guys who are up to speed(Mardi, Barry, FTF, VC, Curious), to illustrate the system you use, be prepared to independently have a go at say one race this Sat, maybe the Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie.

It is not an exercise in proving one person is right or wrong but an illustration.

Thomas, you might want to put up your picks also

So immediately you say I'm not "up to speed"

...and you have expect moi to put them up

..for one race...do you think I'm really that stupid?

[barryb]

2 minutes ago, Thomass said:

..for one race...do you think I'm really that stupid?

We don't think it, its well known.

[hesi]

I have edited my post to include you as up to speed

[mardigras]

4 minutes ago, Thomass said:

 

The Thoroughbred investment punt/ 'riddle' in NZ is vastly different to other countries..

Only to someone that uses things like blinkers on and down in grade.

My ROI in NZ is the same as it is in every other country I bet. There is no riddle, just fairy tales - which you provide enough of for everyone.

[mardigras]

8 minutes ago, Thomass said:

 

As long suspected you massively lay...150/6....that's what statsman do..

It's a damn sight more difficult laying to a profit than backing to a profit.

Although with the arrival of your blue print, it has become increasingly easier. Thanks.

[FeelTheFear]

Ignore the troll, he won't be able to front up. 

[Thomass]

28 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Only to someone that uses things like blinkers on and down in grade.

My ROI in NZ is the same as it is in every other country I bet. There is no riddle, just fairy tales - which you provide enough of for everyone.

Yet another troll full of lies...to spread misinformation 

I 100% don't use blinkers as a sole determinator as you're suggesting

As per KAHURAU...8 units with his impeccable superior Northern form and course record...

....trusting Trainer Kenny...that in his 53rd start...he finally needed BO first time

Nothing wrong at all in adding 20% to that stake....to 10 units

You bet sfa here...as you say

"I don't have the answers"

Especially here

[Chief Stipe]

8 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Yet another troll full of lies...to spread misinformation 

I 100% don't use blinkers as a sole determinator as you're suggesting

As per KAHURAU...8 units with his impeccable superior Northern form and course record...

....trusting Trainer Kenny...that in his 53rd start...he finally needed BO first time

Nothing wrong at all in adding 20% to that stake....to 10 units

You bet sfa here...as you say

"I don't have the answers"

Especially here

But you told us that information AFTER it won?!

[FeelTheFear]

1 hour ago, hesi said:

Would you guys who are up to speed(Mardi, Barry, FTF, VC, Curious, Thomas), to illustrate the system you use, be prepared to independently have a go at say one race this Sat, maybe the Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie.

It is not an exercise in proving one person is right or wrong but an illustration.

 

I have a couple of ways I do analysis.  Lower grades and maidens I like to scan down the field and a name will jump out at me. I am updating my database of race results as well as breeding every day and see hundreds of horses. I note the ones I think have ability. These horses I spot I look closely at their performances. Some will have little to go on but as I said, I feel they have ability and/or potential. 

Here are some examples recently. All good value and very nice place odds.

Tauranga race 8 #10 Masque. Full sister to G1 winner Costume. Won a trial in August then ran 1.8L 6th 22 Sep 2018 over 1200m. Ran 4.1L 7th last start. Both races doing best work late. 1600m will suit very well here. 3rd $3.40 Bet Easy. 

Placings lately and Arawa Park race 3 #1 Marbuzet might be one to do so as well. Has had 2 well spaced breaks after erratic runs first 2 races (laying in/laying out). In between has had trials education. Last start fresh up 6th after trials win was promising, 6 lengths from winner after setting the pace over 1400m. Today 300m less and looks a chance if can handle soft track. $21.00 on Bet Easy FO. 3rd $5.00 FO 

After the brilliant run of $21 shot Marbuzet yesterday, I will have to stay with the team of Rogerson/Elliot. Race 2 #4 Senor Moss. Three starts to date, the first a good first up 4th, 4.8 lengths from winner Cyber Attack in May 2018. Stepped out in the Listed Futurity Stakes for 2yos but finished a dismal 27.2 lengths from winner. Put out for a short spell where he won a trial Oct. 2018. Nice run fresh up for 3.6 lengths 7th, finishing late. Extra 200m will suit, improver. 3rd $5.40. The team once again race 7 #1 Pasabahce. Ran 2nd at Taupo trials 11 Oct. Stepped up for good 4th, 4.3 lengths from winner then difficult run after awkwardly placed and running wide on turn last start. Still only 5.9 lengths from winner and Ryan Elliot hops back on. Not out of this over 1600m. 3rd $5.50 FO

All raced above what I assessed their chances as. All are worth following if value. 

All were chosen on my assessment of their ability and possible fitness for their current race. No blinkers, no weight relief. All assessed by what they have shown previously. I note any other factors that may be a positive or negative, astute trainer, in form jockey, hopeless jockey, possible race pace. These are just extra bits of fluff that help me make up my mind/assess.

I then compare them to the rest of the field and assign a market value. I like these low grade runners, get a buzz when they get up and it hones my assessment skills doing them.

Higher grade races I rate the whole field.

Hard to describe in detail what I do but it works for me. Looking to improve further with the education from the Nillers on this thread

 

[curious]

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Fine by me. I'm quite happy to show my chances for each horse and some of how I arrived at that.

Of course, anyone can put up their 'assessment' of chance. But it will only illustrate an approach, and the result of the race won't define what is workable long term.

Yep me too even though I don't routinely do ratings for NZ racing. I'm also away at a wedding most of Friday and Saturday so probably would have to do this Thursday night based on expected track conditions and may not be able to update.

[Mooncoin]

38 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Yet another troll full of lies...to spread misinformation 

I 100% don't use blinkers as a sole determinator as you're suggesting

As per KAHURAU...8 units with his impeccable superior Northern form and course record...

....trusting Trainer Kenny...that in his 53rd start...he finally needed BO first time

Nothing wrong at all in adding 20% to that stake....to 10 units

You bet sfa here...as you say

"I don't have the answers"

Especially here

Quick question Thomas, what would your units typically transpire into $$ wise?

Cheers

[Thomass]

59 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said:

I have a couple of ways I do analysis.  Lower grades and maidens I like to scan down the field and a name will jump out at me. I am updating my database of race results as well as breeding every day and see hundreds of horses. I note the ones I think have ability. These horses I spot I look closely at their performances. Some will have little to go on but as I said, I feel they have ability and/or potential. 

Here are some examples recently. All good value and very nice place odds.

Tauranga race 8 #10 Masque. Full sister to G1 winner Costume. Won a trial in August then ran 1.8L 6th 22 Sep 2018 over 1200m. Ran 4.1L 7th last start. Both races doing best work late. 1600m will suit very well here. 3rd $3.40 Bet Easy. 

Placings lately and Arawa Park race 3 #1 Marbuzet might be one to do so as well. Has had 2 well spaced breaks after erratic runs first 2 races (laying in/laying out). In between has had trials education. Last start fresh up 6th after trials win was promising, 6 lengths from winner after setting the pace over 1400m. Today 300m less and looks a chance if can handle soft track. $21.00 on Bet Easy FO. 3rd $5.00 FO 

After the brilliant run of $21 shot Marbuzet yesterday, I will have to stay with the team of Rogerson/Elliot. Race 2 #4 Senor Moss. Three starts to date, the first a good first up 4th, 4.8 lengths from winner Cyber Attack in May 2018. Stepped out in the Listed Futurity Stakes for 2yos but finished a dismal 27.2 lengths from winner. Put out for a short spell where he won a trial Oct. 2018. Nice run fresh up for 3.6 lengths 7th, finishing late. Extra 200m will suit, improver. 3rd $5.40. The team once again race 7 #1 Pasabahce. Ran 2nd at Taupo trials 11 Oct. Stepped up for good 4th, 4.3 lengths from winner then difficult run after awkwardly placed and running wide on turn last start. Still only 5.9 lengths from winner and Ryan Elliot hops back on. Not out of this over 1600m. 3rd $5.50 FO

All raced above what I assessed their chances as. All are worth following if value. 

All were chosen on my assessment of their ability and possible fitness for their current race. No blinkers, no weight relief. All assessed by what they have shown previously. I note any other factors that may be a positive or negative, astute trainer, in form jockey, hopeless jockey, possible race pace. These are just extra bits of fluff that help me make up my mind/assess.

I then compare them to the rest of the field and assign a market value. I like these low grade runners, get a buzz when they get up and it hones my assessment skills doing them.

Higher grade races I rate the whole field.

Hard to describe in detail what I do but it works for me. Looking to improve further with the education from the Nillers on this thread

 

Onya for having a bit of fun...

...but to be brutally honest..and we're not here to make friends 24/7

...that's all it will ever be...

Almost all pros worth their salt will have an algorithmic system in place

It not only avoids emotion....a punting killer... it avoids all other "fluff" as you put it...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

[VC!]

2 hours ago, hesi said:

Would you guys who are up to speed(Mardi, Barry, FTF, VC, Curious, Thomas), to illustrate the system you use, be prepared to independently have a go at say one race this Sat, maybe the Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie.

It is not an exercise in proving one person is right or wrong but an illustration.

 

Hesinator 

I used to back NZ Greyhounds professionally I recorded every race I knew which dog would jump left or right or maintain a straight line from the boxes I knew each dogs speed out of the boxes key was to know which dogs were near the lead which ones were likely to be checked 

Because I could make a case for 3 or 4 dogs I decided to do first 4s 

I would pick my main 4 chances box them for $2 cost $48 then take

eg 1,2,3,4 1,234 1234, 5,6,78 =$96

then 1,2,3,4 1,2,3,4 5,6,7,8 1,2,3,4 =$96

Every race cost me $240

the only races I left out were when I knew the hot favourite was most likely to win

Bet 365 at the time had a flaw in their system they paid the highest exotic on the NSW or VIC Tab the discrepancy used to be enormous and here was where I made my profit my Bet 365 account was closed after 3 months I was averaging over 1k profit a day I took 70k of them in just over 2 months 

After 6 weeks of having my account open I had betting restrictions placed  on my account my max bet for first 4s was reduced to 0.40 that didn’t stop me All I had to do was change 1 number It just took me longer as I had to put it on 3 times instead of having 1 unit I had 1.20 units

18 months later I opened an account in my Wife’s name and did it all again I only managed 50kprofit in a tick over 3 months until her account was closed

Can I do this at the TAB answer no the pools are too small!!!

[VC!]

So once you get a taste for it you think I can do this again

As for Horse Racing I have no problem picking winners making consistent profit is where I’m lacking 

I heard the saying value value over and over again but couldn’t get my head around it 

So I look forward with high anticipation and optimism have I got it in me I thank Rocket Rod and Bazza for their input for what they have put forward 

It will be exciting the biggest challenge for me I feel is rating a horse I want to back in a race will I cheat and rate it slightly higher so it represents value?