Murray Fish Posted Wednesday at 09:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:20 PM I enjoyed listening do this! (23 mins long) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted Sunday at 02:39 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:39 AM Quite a bit to digest in the video. Lets get down to seriously analyzing it. Firstly I note that at 74 years Mark Read reckons he's far more perceptive as a punter than ever before. They go on about 11 fundamentals. #1 pick your team. Basically trainers, jockeys, horses etc with good strike rates and consistency Makes point about new technology both training and information. #2 Class figure for the race. I get lost thereafter maybe someone can take over with the other #'s............... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted Sunday at 03:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:02 AM Sorry TC. Can't help. I got lost at #1. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted Sunday at 04:10 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:10 AM 52 minutes ago, curious said: Sorry TC. Can't help. I got lost at #1. Well lets push on some are willing to get unconfused. I note that the video gets chopped off at times just when Mark Read is getting into the nitty gritty. The "energy ratings""perpetual ratings" based on class weight speed ratings prices beating the class system perhaps we can skip over that relating to level of performance. #3 Race Maps Interpreting race speed. OK no problem there. #4 Ratings. Weight Ratings versus speed, energy, kinetic energy ratings c'mon Curious this must be your area of expertise, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted Sunday at 04:35 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:35 AM Well, I get speed maps, but don't really know how to use them in pricing a race, so don't. I don't use weight in my ratings so can't help with weight ratings. You could calculate kinetic energy ratings easily enough provided you knew the weight of the horse, which you don't in Australia/NZ. He didn't really have much chance to explain any of these things. It seemed he was really just being rushed through the list of 11 without expanding on any detail. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wingman Posted Sunday at 05:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:48 AM A book that was produced 14 years ago by UK's Racing Post had a lot of detail to help people who like to back racehorses. Putting aside all of the arguments for and against recent/old form, weight etc, a telling closing statement in one of the chapters of the book, always stuck in my mind. Quote " THE ONLY WAY to make a long term profit from any form of gambling is to bet only when the odds available exceed the probability of winning. Unfortunately in horseracing there are no hard and fast rules - It will always be subjective, and a matter of personal opinion."unquote 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted Sunday at 06:26 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:26 AM 37 minutes ago, Wingman said: Quote " THE ONLY WAY to make a long term profit from any form of gambling is to bet only when the odds available exceed the probability of winning. Unfortunately in horseracing there are no hard and fast rules - It will always be subjective, and a matter of personal opinion."unquote Value. Nothing to do with 3yr olds wearing blinkers for the first time after Christmas aka @Thomass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted Sunday at 07:41 AM Share Posted Sunday at 07:41 AM 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: Value. Nothing to do with 3yr olds wearing blinkers for the first time after Christmas aka @Thomass. It could be. You still have to have some criteria for pricing the race so that you can know whether the available odds exceed the horse's chance. Not that I would use those above, nor can see how to adjust my pricing based on them and Tommo has been reluctant to share how to do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted Sunday at 08:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:28 AM 42 minutes ago, curious said: It could be. You still have to have some criteria for pricing the race so that you can know whether the available odds exceed the horse's chance. Not that I would use those above, nor can see how to adjust my pricing based on them and Tommo has been reluctant to share how to do that. Blinkers and improved performance is not always cut and dried. I've known trainers who knowing a horse will perform better because of treatment for a virus (i.e. injection) will conveniently explain away the performance to blinkers when they have nothing to do with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wingman Posted Sunday at 09:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:48 AM Anyone who thinks they have an edge in this game/business is highly unlikely to divulge detail. There comes a point where the 80% of perpetual losers get tossed/churned out, but remarkably, replaced by a similar number and type. The other 20% continue to calmly get on with making a profit. Or so they will tell you. Like everything in a competitive society to make a genuine profit you need to be a high achiever ,inside the top 5% and staying there is not easy. If any of you have been there, even briefly, you HAVE over achieved 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murray Fish Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM 12 hours ago, Wingman said: Anyone who thinks they have an edge in this game/business is highly unlikely to divulge detail. I don't mind, though my sharing is around perhaps more on negating losing bets.. 12 hours ago, Wingman said: There comes a point where the 80% of perpetual losers get tossed/churned out, but remarkably, replaced by a similar number and type. that 'churned..' is I think being speed up on 'racing' with the moved away from tote w&p. Those newbies I presume are made up of sports and racing and I presum the racing ones get churned quicker now a days. I don't have my head around 'sport', though it this year paid out way more for me that my racing profit. 12 hours ago, Wingman said: ,inside the top 5% and staying there is not easy. If any of you have been there, even briefly, you HAVE over achieved that be me! though for me to grind out a profit via racing! it has got way more harder and frustrating!!! in that I Need to be Seeing any Horse before the actual race! The more I get to 'see', the more chance that I will bet! With the 'a race every 5mins' approach we have now I just Don't see how I can justify the time and effort to be 'finding a winner'! I did hold out hope that 'we' would actually get a Dedicated Channel, especially for Group racing days!!! A few camera streaming we even be OK!!! Sigh, tell me there is a chance of that happening... for the record! my betting nowadays is very much 'hobby', though one that if the truth be known! way to much time and effort is spent on! a profit earned! but not to sure if the ergonomics stacks up! especially moving forward! re Sports betting, two thoughts! 1. obviously in time in will engulf 'racing' (insert Sunset..) 2. personally, (sitting here retired), if I was going to try and pay the rent via Punting then 100% I would be focusing on Sport. It was mentioned in the vid about, 'is there a sweet spot' in where you are making a profit! What are some of the factors being in play for that! for me! in racing and now in sport! it's Information about 'how well X is going' and just as important 'how well is x Not going'. For racing, for me, that has a strong Organic factor! That sort of thing changes over time! For sport, for me, it has meant I have radically changed historically what sport$ have been involved! as in rugby and cricket! both now 100% dropped, to now mlb and nfl, both are way more transparent that rug/cric and racing.. lol, a current interest re 'betting' is cognitive bias! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted yesterday at 12:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:15 AM You make some good points Mr Fish particularly seeing the horse before the race. Good example being Real Class versus Reggae Queen. Both had been finishing well leading up to the 2000m fillies race. However the comparison was stark. One had the constitution demeanour etc the other not so. Today I'm keen on seeing how Vickezzmargaux looks prior to race 5. more on the #'s....Mark Read makes the point the market is not stupid. Just because a horse drifts alarmingly you shouldn't suddenly decide to bet based on your pricing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM 15 hours ago, The Centaur said: Blinkers and improved performance is not always cut and dried. I've known trainers who knowing a horse will perform better because of treatment for a virus (i.e. injection) will conveniently explain away the performance to blinkers when they have nothing to do with it. I've read about this 'injection' before What's in it and why is it performance enhancing given that veterinary science says it's not? Does the injectee know more about science and are they anti vax/anti fluoride? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM 24 minutes ago, The Centaur said: Mark Read makes the point the market is not stupid. Just because a horse drifts alarmingly you shouldn't suddenly decide to bet based on your pricing. That's an interesting point. If you determined the value price of a horse and it suddenly is better than that price do you bet? Or does the "market know better"? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted yesterday at 12:51 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:51 AM 15 minutes ago, Thomass said: What's in it and why is it performance enhancing given that veterinary science says it's not? Uh Doh! Does the horse's performance improve because its health improves? That's therapeutic not performance enhancing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted yesterday at 02:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:27 AM 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: Uh Doh! Does the horse's performance improve because its health improves? That's therapeutic not performance enhancing. And I'm curious to know what injectable treatments there are for a virus? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted yesterday at 02:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:31 AM 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: That's an interesting point. If you determined the value price of a horse and it suddenly is better than that price do you bet? Or does the "market know better"? I'd trust my own assessment ahead of the market. That's how I find value in the first place. One successful punter I know bets more if a horse drifts because the value becomes better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted yesterday at 02:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:32 AM 4 minutes ago, curious said: And I'm curious to know what injectable treatments there are for a virus? I virus can mean low blood count. Look at it that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted yesterday at 02:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:38 AM 5 minutes ago, curious said: I'd trust my own assessment ahead of the market. That's how I find value in the first place. One successful punter I know bets more if a horse drifts because the value becomes better. That would be the expectation but Mark read blows that fallacy apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted yesterday at 02:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 AM 26 minutes ago, curious said: And I'm curious to know what injectable treatments there are for a virus? B1? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted yesterday at 02:56 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:56 AM 23 minutes ago, curious said: I'd trust my own assessment ahead of the market. That's how I find value in the first place. One successful punter I know bets more if a horse drifts because the value becomes better. But if a horse isn't at what you assessed as value then the odds blow out to where you assessed it or better do you bet then? What point in the market do you put a line in the sand? Probably a dumb question but anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted yesterday at 02:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:58 AM 25 minutes ago, The Centaur said: I virus can mean low blood count. Look at it that way. A blood transfusion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted yesterday at 03:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:14 AM 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Uh Doh! Does the horse's performance improve because its health improves? That's therapeutic not performance enhancing. 'The Centaur' has mentioned "injections" before The inference being it's full of fong He goes on to say "the trainer KNOWS it will perform better" really? After a virus Maybe it's trained the house down...just like Blinker applications as per Lance O'Sullivan saying his recent black type winner "trained the house down with blinkers on" Give me that any day over a horse in recovery mode Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted yesterday at 03:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:41 AM 27 minutes ago, Thomass said: trained the house down with blinkers on" Give me that any day over a horse in recovery mode Now you have to add a shadow roll. More headgear than an American Indian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted yesterday at 04:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:00 AM (edited) 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: But if a horse isn't at what you assessed as value then the odds blow out to where you assessed it or better do you bet then? Yes. If I'm there to track that but I'm not routinely. 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: What point in the market do you put a line in the sand? Maybe when someone convinces me that horses that shorten are more likely to win than those that drift. More likely than the chance the market gives them that is. Edited yesterday at 04:05 AM by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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