Bookies have got no clue

[the galah]

On 22/02/2025 at 3:50 PM, Gammalite said:

Must be a terrible field then. 

That horse hasn't won since June 2023. How would anyone with any sense put money on it , when there's an amazing amount of good gallopers in today with great form and paying $5 plus.

I suggest the Aussie in the Avondale Guinea's to be a chance at getting a quid 😉😎🏇💰👍 double figure odds too.

 

17 hours ago, Gammalite said:

I certainly admire you supporting the 'backblock' horses at the TROTS (along with The Galah and Newmarket or whoever is having a go ) But in All seriousness , one has to be pretty well off, and have a unaffected by money mind,  to risk any cash on Fergalicious and all those type of horses racing at that meeting yesterday and similar ones. Arizona wildcats?  please.....  Better off buying my milk. 

 

If the class of the horses was the most relevant factor in encouraging punting ,then why do the lower grade meetings generate the most turnover in nz?

punting profitably is all about assessing the current form of each runner. After you've done that then you factor in dividends,drivers/trainers/draws/courses.

But to be successful,it all starts with comparing a horses recent form against its competitors,irrespective of the class or level of the horse .In other words,if a punter is blaming the level of the product for being unsuccessful,they are not giving a realistic assessment.

One thing i know for certain,is if nz harness punters were to redirect their betting onto australian gallops ,and if they have less knowledge and therefore less ability to assess the australian form,then they are sure to be less successful than they already are. 

So,from a gambling perspective,logically the best advice for punters should be to Not diversify their focus to include australian gallops,it would be to do the opposite and place more focus on nz harness.

Edited 8 hours ago by the galah

[Brodie]

5 hours ago, the galah said:

 

If the class of the horses was the most relevant factor in encouraging punting ,then why do the lower grade meetings generate the most turnover in nz?

punting profitably is all about assessing the current form of each runner. After you've done that then you factor in dividends,drivers/trainers/draws/courses.

But to be successful,it all starts with comparing a horses recent form against its competitors,irrespective of the class or level of the horse .In other words,if a punter is blaming the level of the product for being unsuccessful,they are not giving a realistic assessment.

One thing i know for certain,is if nz harness punters were to redirect their betting onto australian gallops ,and if they have less knowledge and therefore less ability to assess the australian form,then they are sure to be less successful than they already are. 

So,from a gambling perspective,logically the best advice for punters should be to Not diversify their focus to include australian gallops,it would be to do the opposite and place more focus on nz harness.

Dies anyone actually know anyone that is restricted in NZ by the TAB that wager only on gallops?

I havent heard of anyone but there must be sone you would think?

 

[Gammalite]

6 hours ago, the galah said:

One thing i know for certain,is if nz harness punters were to redirect their betting onto australian gallops ,and if they have less knowledge and therefore less ability to assess the australian form,then they are sure to be less successful than they already are. 

So,from a gambling perspective,logically the best advice for punters should be to Not diversify their focus to include australian gallops,it would be to do the opposite and place more focus on nz harness.

NZ galloping form is very hard to follow. many horses have a zero then a win , then a zero . that sort of thing.  so you are right , that does make it hard to pick one. Vic gallopers are Much more consistent. I think you would find serious HORSE Punters in NZ would be backing Australia gallops meetings . 

alas, couldn't get a winner Friday Albion,   but bounced back ok Saturday with an Ellerslie Guinea's winner and My other 2 bets at Caulfield were She's Bulletproof (narrowly defeated at 6-1 Oakleigh Plate ) and Mr Brightside who always turns up and gives his best. Horses that try are what I look for lol. Mr Brightside is a real star at that.

I liked The Janitor for QLD at Menangle in the Paleface Adios Stakes too. went great , but too far back this week in the run . made up many lengths. Got a bit last week though when Cam Hart, a better driver was steering him.  

The harness horses of high calibre like those are great, they run true to form and give you a run for your money nearly every time. Muscle Mountain and Oscar B for example. They just bounce back so quickly after a defeat ( I lost a bit on Oscar in the Great Southern Star)  . Oscar has won twice since, bouncing back quickly,  over here already 😅 , the old bugger lol 🤣.  

But the calibre of horse at Washdyke like Arizona Wildcat being tipped ?? that just made me laugh out loud 😂. How would anyone want to even risk a single dollar on that sort of horse.? Newmarket was tipping pounamu on a thread whose form is this

Last Start	23/02/2025
Form	506760200565

Very hard to invest anything on that?  with all those nice gallopers (like Mr Brightside)  in action around the place.🏇

Focus on NZ harness you say? you just couldn't with any confidence??. so many better options around. where your horse is actually in the race and not tailed off due to some unfortunate incident lol.😁

And real Punters actually like to Win , not just hope they can win. (You need horses that try to Win to do this)