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Bit Of A Yarn

Railway field


pete

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19 hours ago, FeelTheFear said:

At this stage on a good track I am leaning towards Volpe Veloce currently at $8 Bet Easy FO.

Volpe Veloce had a 4 month break before her run at Arawa Park where she put in a very good run over 1215m for 4th, 0.4 lengths from winner Volks Lightning. Then another top class effort at Pukekohe over 1400m where she fought gallantly for a 0.1 length second. Looks primed for this and the step up to 1600m will suit. 

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15 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said:

Volpe Veloce had a 4 month break before her run at Arawa Park where she put in a very good run over 1215m for 4th, 0.4 lengths from winner Volks Lightning. Then another top class effort at Pukekohe over 1400m where she fought gallantly for a 0.1 length second. Looks primed for this and the step up to 1600m will suit. 

??

Now at $10

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14 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said:

Ferrando looks overs for me and a longshot is Rocanto

Only thing about Ferrando is the draw will be a killer for him. He has to lead and from 13 in that field he will struggle to do so. thats makes him suspect in the last 50 mtrs for me. I would want $35+ for him.

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Well one thing I can pick that you guys will all pick, is that Melody Belle is way under, from that outside but one draw.  But  Volpe Veloce must then be slightly over(10/3) from virtually the same alley.

Won this last year relatively easily when drawing 7 of 10, albeit, I think there was some rain on the track

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I was impressed by Bostonian’s Winter carnival in QLD NZ don’t usually have many sprinters measure up in OZ he drew the outside gate 15 when he won at Doomben he has a soft gate 5 Melody Belle is giving him weight he,s clearly on top

Over the odds for mine is Livin on a prayer 

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I have Gift of power leading this field for team Rogerson I think they will press forward with stablemate Ferrando and sit outside GOP and try and dictate the tempo of the race I don’t know quite what to make of the time GOP ran last start I always had GOP as a telegraph horse I don’t see the railway run at break neck speed Bostonian has William Wallace drawn in gate 4 and Stratocaster in gate 6 neither should cause pressure to Bostonian early on Colgan should get a spot running 4th 5th or 6th and on ability should win

Melody Belle I imagine they ride her for luck if she is giving Bostonian 4 to 5 lengths turning for home in an evenly run railway I can’t see her finishing over the top  I would think MB will get out to closer to $3 closer to the jump

Edited by VC!
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Winner will need to be able to travel well in behind a furious pace imo.

Melody Belle has everything going for her except that draw which on a G3 at Ellerslie 1200 is a real shocker. Can she race wide / circle a railway field? Sure. This railway field though? Hmmmm.

Nice things can happen for Gift of Power here or in the Telegraph. Trainer has said previously right handed is a query so I backed her for trentham and disappointed she starts here but good luck to them.

Bostonian an obvious chance but well found in the market.

Sleeping Beauty gets 3kg from Volpe Veloce from their last start and opened $121. From the 1 gate I can see pace out wider resulting in a nice passage and shes a quality albeit tricky mare only now learning to settle as a 6yo after 18 starts for 8 wins. Good 3 not expected to particularly suit however stranger things have happened and 3 figure odds hard to turn down.

 

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I like Bostonian at the weights, he is classy and in form; Princess Kereru and Livin' On A Prayer the main dangers.

Melody Belle and Volpe Veloce are classy contenders but MB will have to be a champ to win from that draw and the presence of Gift Of Power and Ferrando will ensure a strong tempo. As others have observed, this is the race of the season. I expect the winning margin will be hd/hd - luck in the running (esp getting a split at the right time will play a major part.

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I'm not one to get concerned with barriers. Jockeys are more often the ones that make the barrier the issue. They think it's such a problem, they make poor decisions imo.

At this point Rocanto at 90-1 is well over the odds. Even with what I just wrote about barriers, I wouldn't touch Melody Belle at those odds. Not even close.

Ferrando is above the odds for me as are Indecision and Volks Lightning - maybe largely due to Melody Belle being so short.

Statistically, the barrier is difficult to define any disadvantage. Very few races with 13 -14 starters at Ellerslie over 1200m. And overall, if anything, middle of the barrier 'appears' to have what little advantage there may be.

Edited by mardigras
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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Agreed to help a mate out with some house reno. Been pretty busy and buggered from that!. Putting up some gib tomorrow. Hope to get some time to see a few races. 

Oh shit, I tell people I am busy nowadays, good on you though. A true friend gives up what he loves to help a mate out.

If you need a hand, DON"T ring me.  hahaha

Edited by barryb
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Only two horses in it for me:

Melody Belle - best horse in NZ.  Freshened up and two very impressive trials.  Yes the draw is not good, but has the ability to give them a 3-4 length start at the top of the straight and still win.  I see her dropping back, lots of pace in the race, and her getting a drag into the race round the home turn and sprinting past them in the straight.

and if she is going to get beaten I think it will be Princess Kereru.  Very nice win last time despite it being a slowly run race.  Finally living up to the potential and should get a nice trip from barrier 2.  Just needs a clear run in the straight.  $3 final field place is good money in my opinion.

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