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Bit Of A Yarn

Potential Pure Punting Comp??


hesi

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6 minutes ago, curious said:

Yeahh, but the point is that if it's even money and only one out of 3 does that, then profit wise, it's all bad!

200 loss

I think there is an unshakeable belief amongst most punters, that they can pick more winners 

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That's the difference in thinking that is needed to profit Hesi. Doesn't matter what your winning strike rate is, if the majority of the winners are not "value" you will still lose, as Mardi is trying to point out and like most do as you suggest. Also, as barryb has demonstrated in just a week's value bets.

Of course if you can average 2 out of 3 even money shots, then you are home and hosed and shouldn't need to work another day in your life for financial reasons.

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50 minutes ago, hesi said:

200 loss

I think there is an unshakeable belief amongst most punters, that they can pick more winners 

But it is a given that the vast majority of punters lose long term.

And the punter that thinks 200 on the nose when it's won means all is ok, is very short term thinking.

If value wasn't important, next time I sell a property, I hope all those that think that, come along and want to buy.

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20 hours ago, Jasper said:

Value is outdated 

There are that many people using this they say it’s not about strike rate it’s about value 

Well that used to be the case but not anymore it’s become harder and harder to find value that in my mind it doesn’t exist anymore 

Value will not be winning this comp

Jasper, 

I think we all seek value every day. Why buy new tv for $5k when you can get same elsewhere $4k. 

This comp will be very interesting, when a few people pick the same horse  and we can  see the range of prices that everyone locked in. Going to be a wide range, so in a way, that might get people to shop around a bit. 

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8 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

Jasper, 

I think we all seek value every day. Why buy new tv for $5k when you can get same elsewhere $4k. 

This comp will be very interesting, when a few people pick the same horse  and we can  see the range of prices that everyone locked in. Going to be a wide range, so in a way, that might get people to shop around a bit. 

Newmarket 

Once upon a time it was easier to obtain value once upon a time 100s were shopping for value now its thousands 

The bookmakers open their books at 125%

Its hard to find value when the market is running at 1.25 and if you are quick you may find something but compared to when there were say 100 compared to now 1,000 people looking for value these prices are snapped up very quickly if you are fortunate there maybe enough liquidity in BF for NZ but unlikely 

Value is best found laying than backing 

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39 minutes ago, barryb said:

Funny how I seem to be able to do it every day.

You are forgetting that whilst everyone is snapping up value in a race, often the same few runners, they are creating value elsewhere. You just have to think outside the square.

Exactly. It doesn't really matter how many people are looking for value. That just creates the market. To win, you have to price more accurately than that market, then find value based on that. It's difficult but it's not rocket science.

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1 hour ago, Jasper said:

Newmarket 

Once upon a time it was easier to obtain value once upon a time 100s were shopping for value now its thousands 

The bookmakers open their books at 125%

Its hard to find value when the market is running at 1.25 and if you are quick you may find something but compared to when there were say 100 compared to now 1,000 people looking for value these prices are snapped up very quickly if you are fortunate there maybe enough liquidity in BF for NZ but unlikely 

Value is best found laying than backing 

Not a huge amount bet with betfair on nz fields, thats for sure. Mind you, get some great odds on aus racing with bf

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i think a few of you missed the point,  I put the 200 on the nose, when I am given a solid tip, (I usually get 6-7 a year), not every race day punting which nowadays amounts to sfa in comparison to the old days.  

My other source is a 1,000 dollar place bet, not related to the tips and more an exercise, again this happens less than 3-4 times a year.  It used to be a fortnightly thing in the old days but the strain wears you down  ... :( 

I don't really care how you guys see value or that market bullshite,  gawd I have seen those b/s systems and knowing men for years, all b/s.   

I know its really all about the horse,  jockey, and the drug   ...    ;)     

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6 hours ago, Mk2_Zephyr said:

i think a few of you missed the point,  I put the 200 on the nose, when I am given a solid tip, (I usually get 6-7 a year), not every race day punting which nowadays amounts to sfa in comparison to the old days.  

My other source is a 1,000 dollar place bet, not related to the tips and more an exercise, again this happens less than 3-4 times a year.  It used to be a fortnightly thing in the old days but the strain wears you down  ... :( 

I don't really care how you guys see value or that market bullshite,  gawd I have seen those b/s systems and knowing men for years, all b/s.   

I know its really all about the horse,  jockey, and the drug   ...    ;)     

I think you've summed up yourself pretty well. Cheers.

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Stop writing it then.

Things that others write isn't necessarily bullshit just because you are too thick to understand it. Which is clearly the case.

Best ignored Martin. You really don't want to stoop that low and interact with this guy.

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1 hour ago, barryb said:

Would have thought you would struggle to get credit. 

Why ?  been AAA for at least twenty years ... :)   Never used it or needed it ... 

the loan message was hypothetical, like you borrow $400 each from a number of individuals, bank it all (making your bank  manager VERY happy), then drip feed it back, you do this 3-4 times a year  ......  ;) 

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34 minutes ago, Mk2_Zephyr said:

Why ?  been AAA for at least twenty years ... :)   Never used it or needed it ... 

the loan message was hypothetical, like you borrow $400 each from a number of individuals, bank it all (making your bank  manager VERY happy), then drip feed it back, you do this 3-4 times a year  ......  ;) 

WTF are you talking about?.

Bring back Thomass I say.

Edited by barryb
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Mk2, you have always done pretty well selecting winners in the comps you have entered to date.

If we manage to stitch something together, why don't you just enter and let your selecting do the talking instead of all this rhetoric.

If you think these guys are off the planet, then beat them

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