hesi Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, curious said: Yeahh, but the point is that if it's even money and only one out of 3 does that, then profit wise, it's all bad! 200 loss I think there is an unshakeable belief amongst most punters, that they can pick more winners Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 That's the difference in thinking that is needed to profit Hesi. Doesn't matter what your winning strike rate is, if the majority of the winners are not "value" you will still lose, as Mardi is trying to point out and like most do as you suggest. Also, as barryb has demonstrated in just a week's value bets. Of course if you can average 2 out of 3 even money shots, then you are home and hosed and shouldn't need to work another day in your life for financial reasons. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 50 minutes ago, hesi said: 200 loss I think there is an unshakeable belief amongst most punters, that they can pick more winners But it is a given that the vast majority of punters lose long term. And the punter that thinks 200 on the nose when it's won means all is ok, is very short term thinking. If value wasn't important, next time I sell a property, I hope all those that think that, come along and want to buy. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newmarket Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 20 hours ago, Jasper said: Value is outdated There are that many people using this they say it’s not about strike rate it’s about value Well that used to be the case but not anymore it’s become harder and harder to find value that in my mind it doesn’t exist anymore Value will not be winning this comp Jasper, I think we all seek value every day. Why buy new tv for $5k when you can get same elsewhere $4k. This comp will be very interesting, when a few people pick the same horse and we can see the range of prices that everyone locked in. Going to be a wide range, so in a way, that might get people to shop around a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasper Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Newmarket said: Jasper, I think we all seek value every day. Why buy new tv for $5k when you can get same elsewhere $4k. This comp will be very interesting, when a few people pick the same horse and we can see the range of prices that everyone locked in. Going to be a wide range, so in a way, that might get people to shop around a bit. Newmarket Once upon a time it was easier to obtain value once upon a time 100s were shopping for value now its thousands The bookmakers open their books at 125% Its hard to find value when the market is running at 1.25 and if you are quick you may find something but compared to when there were say 100 compared to now 1,000 people looking for value these prices are snapped up very quickly if you are fortunate there maybe enough liquidity in BF for NZ but unlikely Value is best found laying than backing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Funny how I seem to be able to do it every day. You are forgetting that whilst everyone is snapping up value in a race, often the same few runners, they are creating value elsewhere. You just have to think outside the square. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kakama Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 As Barry said....not all of us punt on same horses....so odds are changing quickly....giving everyone options. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 39 minutes ago, barryb said: Funny how I seem to be able to do it every day. You are forgetting that whilst everyone is snapping up value in a race, often the same few runners, they are creating value elsewhere. You just have to think outside the square. Exactly. It doesn't really matter how many people are looking for value. That just creates the market. To win, you have to price more accurately than that market, then find value based on that. It's difficult but it's not rocket science. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newmarket Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Jasper said: Newmarket Once upon a time it was easier to obtain value once upon a time 100s were shopping for value now its thousands The bookmakers open their books at 125% Its hard to find value when the market is running at 1.25 and if you are quick you may find something but compared to when there were say 100 compared to now 1,000 people looking for value these prices are snapped up very quickly if you are fortunate there maybe enough liquidity in BF for NZ but unlikely Value is best found laying than backing Not a huge amount bet with betfair on nz fields, thats for sure. Mind you, get some great odds on aus racing with bf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 i think a few of you missed the point, I put the 200 on the nose, when I am given a solid tip, (I usually get 6-7 a year), not every race day punting which nowadays amounts to sfa in comparison to the old days. My other source is a 1,000 dollar place bet, not related to the tips and more an exercise, again this happens less than 3-4 times a year. It used to be a fortnightly thing in the old days but the strain wears you down ... I don't really care how you guys see value or that market bullshite, gawd I have seen those b/s systems and knowing men for years, all b/s. I know its really all about the horse, jockey, and the drug ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 hours ago, Mk2_Zephyr said: i think a few of you missed the point, I put the 200 on the nose, when I am given a solid tip, (I usually get 6-7 a year), not every race day punting which nowadays amounts to sfa in comparison to the old days. My other source is a 1,000 dollar place bet, not related to the tips and more an exercise, again this happens less than 3-4 times a year. It used to be a fortnightly thing in the old days but the strain wears you down ... I don't really care how you guys see value or that market bullshite, gawd I have seen those b/s systems and knowing men for years, all b/s. I know its really all about the horse, jockey, and the drug ... I think you've summed up yourself pretty well. Cheers. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 hours ago, mardigras said: I think you've summed up yourself pretty well. Cheers. Not really, its just I have an aversion to bullshit. You carry on your merrily way and believe as u wish ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 33 minutes ago, Mk2_Zephyr said: Not really, its just I have an aversion to bullshit. You can't have, most of it is perpetuated by yourself. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Mk2_Zephyr said: Not really, its just I have an aversion to bullshit. Stop writing it then. Things that others write isn't necessarily bullshit just because you are too thick to understand it. Which is clearly the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Stop writing it then. Things that others write isn't necessarily bullshit just because you are too thick to understand it. Which is clearly the case. Best ignored Martin. You really don't want to stoop that low and interact with this guy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, barryb said: You can't have, most of it is perpetuated by yourself. Said the biggest bullshitter here, who drives a clapped out commodore and lives in his mothers basement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Stop writing it then. Things that others write isn't necessarily bullshit just because you are too thick to understand it. Which is clearly the case. I understand what YOU believe, don't agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 A question for u all, Is a interest free loan of $8,000 good value ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newmarket Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Mk2_Zephyr said: A question for u all, Is a interest free loan of $8,000 good value ? Probably not if you place 8 of your $1000.00 place bets just for an exercise? Maybe gym membership a better option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Geez, can't be any room left under the bridge 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 54 minutes ago, Mk2_Zephyr said: A question for u all, Is a interest free loan of $8,000 good value ? Would have thought you would struggle to get credit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, barryb said: Would have thought you would struggle to get credit. Why ? been AAA for at least twenty years ... Never used it or needed it ... the loan message was hypothetical, like you borrow $400 each from a number of individuals, bank it all (making your bank manager VERY happy), then drip feed it back, you do this 3-4 times a year ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Mk2_Zephyr said: Why ? been AAA for at least twenty years ... Never used it or needed it ... the loan message was hypothetical, like you borrow $400 each from a number of individuals, bank it all (making your bank manager VERY happy), then drip feed it back, you do this 3-4 times a year ...... WTF are you talking about?. Bring back Thomass I say. Edited January 8, 2019 by barryb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hesi Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, barryb said: WTF are you talking about?. Bring back Thomass I say. NO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hesi Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Mk2, you have always done pretty well selecting winners in the comps you have entered to date. If we manage to stitch something together, why don't you just enter and let your selecting do the talking instead of all this rhetoric. If you think these guys are off the planet, then beat them 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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