winton race 2

[the galah]

One of the bookmakers favorite horses ,classee again got beaten yesterday as an odds on favorite.

These things happen,but the strange thing about its unlucky run yesterday was the run it received and how that got no mention in the stipes report.

having looked at the video many times,its seems quite clear that classee had positioned itself behind the horse that drew 2,in the 1/1 posisition.

then ,while in the 1/1 position following the number 2 horse,another horse improved inside the horse to classees inside..

In others words,that hose,ask me lou,improved into a position that it really shouldn't have been entitled to or was able to without hindering those outside it.i guess it was one of those races where the horses were racing slightly off the inside as you often see,otherwise he wouldn't have been able to improve,but still he should have known not to do that anyway.

but it did happen and everyone could see as a result of that,drivers were turning their heads and obviously drivers would have been voicing their opinions along the lines of,what are you doing,you can't do that.

so the upshot of it all was the  hot favorite,who most punters would have been watching,went from a good position to a very bad position through no fault of its own.

So my question is,given it all seemed pretty obvious,how come the stipes didn't even think it worth a mention. It seemed another inconsistent application of the rules depending on what area something happens.

 

Edited May 4 by the galah

[Nowornever]

Yes hard to see where they were from the angles but I think that Robyns Hustler was actually almost three wide at that stage. You can see a bigger gap than normal between the fence runners and the outside horses coming into the bend the first time around.

 

[Brodie]

The driver of the 10 horse Tashs Bad Girl was Natasha Kyle who has now only had 6 drives.

She actually drives a helluva lot better than Alistair does, but to be fair that wouldnt be that hard.

She has probably got a future in harness down south as a Junior as she seems to have good hands.

Anyway from the video she pushed out from the fence when she should not have, under the current law.

The Stipes dont really care as they let a lot go without commenting.

Watched many standing starts where the unruly horses are 30 metres or more from the front line and  they call it FAIR?

There seems to be a lot of consistency nowadays from the officialdom, consistently inconsistent and  it just does not seem to matter to them.

We do not want enquiries cos it holds up the next race being started on time and we just can not have that, can we?

Edited May 5 by Brodie

[the galah]

2 hours ago, Nowornever said:

Yes hard to see where they were from the angles but I think that Robyns Hustler was actually almost three wide at that stage. You can see a bigger gap than normal between the fence runners and the outside horses coming into the bend the first time around.

 

thats why i guess a kyle thought he could improve on the inside. But even if robyn hustler,who drew 2 is a little bit wider than normal,the drivers in the photo on the inside are not permitted to come off as obviously it would create interference.

Its like in any race where the leader may be running more than a carts width off the inside,trailing horses do exactly the same. You don't see drivers improving on the inside because its not the done thing. If drivers did that and they come to a bend and the lead horse moves in a little and dictates that the horses following do the same,then your going to have inteference if someone has improved up the inside in midfield.

I think the failure of the stipes to even mention it,indicates southland stipes are happy to overlook such things. 

possibly a factor is the stipes involved have double standards of enforcement if an inexperienced junior is involved. 

I say that because its the second case involving a junior driver in just the last week that i've highlighted. The other was in the north island.

The stipes have very important jobs to do.

two of the most important facets of their job is saftey standards and integrity standards.

In the years leading up to operation inca i questioned on this forum why the stipes took no action in investigating what i saw as a handful of very obvious questionable drives.Turned out those drives were part of the catalyst for  operation inca.Had the stipes done their job, i believe operation inca would never have happened.The most obvious reason they didn't take any action was because it was simply the easy way for them to deal with such occurences. In other words,lets not upset anyone as they will really moan and the stipes will cop some flak,so lets not upset these people as we have to deal with them each week,so lets just turn a blind eye. And thats what they did.

Wel,here we have a different issue,that of safety,but again its something that, if it  southland or the north island,they are happy to overlook.

i mean,its their job to look at things like we are discussing.There shouldn't have to be an accident before they mention it in their stipes report.

 

Edited May 5 by the galah

[Nowornever]

I think the problem is I doubt the stipes even realized this had occurred. Certainly would not surprise me if they didn't as there are a lot of things worth mentioning even more obvious than this that never get addressed either.

They will watching this thinking what is Galah on about then go oh I see! Oh well too late now.

[the galah]

58 minutes ago, Nowornever said:

I think the problem is I doubt the stipes even realized this had occurred. Certainly would not surprise me if they didn't as there are a lot of things worth mentioning even more obvious than this that never get addressed either.

They will watching this thinking what is Galah on about then go oh I see! Oh well too late now.

maybe.but i don't think there are  many more obvious things than the one i'm highlighting.

It involved a hot favorite and that incident effectively looked to cost it the win.

i think the stipes saw it and chose to overlook it because of what i said earlier.

the stipe in charge at that meeting,vinny munro is a former international  rugby referee . I think he refereed about 3 internationals and quite a few super rugby games and lots of provincial games.

i remember reading an article about him when he moved to be a stipe. i just looked it up again. he was quoted as saying    "like anything there were highs and lows. There were some wonderful experiences around the world meeting some wonderful people, and then decisions that you make sadly some people hold you accountable and take it personally".

so i think hes trying to walk the line,hold people accountable but not upset them.No doubt he interacts a lot with those he polices.

well that may be all well and good,but theres another factor at play when it comes to racing.The punters. Punter confidence in the product goes down when they see instances of drivers actions being overlooked when it effects horses they've punted on .Punters are like spectators in a rugby game,but less forgiving as they have some of their hard earned $ riding on outcomes.

Anyway,its not as if punters are baying for blood as they recognise drivers make mistakes.

All punters want, is to think the stipes are doing their job,which means punters should be able to expect the horse they bet on, can rely on fair play from its opposition drivers.

Edited May 5 by the galah

[Nowornever]

1 hour ago, the galah said:

All punters want, is to think the stipes are doing their job

True but there is too much inconsistency. Why was there no question asked of Downtown Orlando and the improved showing in race 8.

Don't tell me it is because it ran 5th in its last start because that is a load of horse shit. Is was second last and struggling to keep up 21.5 lengths from the winner and all it previous 8 starts were further back than ninth. If they can not see that is not an an improved run then they truly do not have any awareness of how horses perform. If they want to hide behind some ridiculous rule that if a horse finishes 5th it is a good run then they are making themselves look like idiots in situations like this.

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Nowornever said:

True but there is too much inconsistency. Why was there no question asked of Downtown Orlando and the improved showing in race 8.

Don't tell me it is because it ran 5th in its last start because that is a load of horse shit. Is was second last and struggling to keep up 21.5 lengths from the winner and all it previous 8 starts were further back than ninth. If they can not see that is not an an improved run then they truly do not have any awareness of how horses perform. If they want to hide behind some ridiculous rule that if a horse finishes 5th it is a good run then they are making themselves look like idiots in situations like this.

Downtown Orlando was second last at its previous start as it galloped in the straight when running on.

It had showed a wee bit of ability in Canterbury and the fact that it had a change of trainer and driver wouldve definitely been advantageous.

It was racing down in Southland where the class of opposition is much inferior to Canterbury was also a determining factor in running second.

But yes there are form reversals that do not get a Stipes mention but often it is because they can be driven by average drivers that drive averagely.

 

[Nowornever]

48 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Downtown Orlando was second last at its previous start as it galloped in the straight when running on.

It had showed a wee bit of ability in Canterbury and the fact that it had a change of trainer and driver wouldve definitely been advantageous.

It was racing down in Southland where the class of opposition is much inferior to Canterbury was also a determining factor in running second.

But yes there are form reversals that do not get a Stipes mention but often it is because they can be driven by average drivers that drive averagely.

 

Yes the recent trial was good and the drivers can say whatever they want if questioned and it is believed, but if there was ever a question needed to be asked that day it was that horse. 

Supposed integrity but I am rolling my eyes at that one.

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Nowornever said:

Yes the recent trial was good and the drivers can say whatever they want if questioned and it is believed, but if there was ever a question needed to be asked that day it was that horse. 

Supposed integrity but I am rolling my eyes at that one.

Yes the drivers can say anything and the Stipes say ok!

The drivers are hardly going to be saying, hey we have not been trying so that we can drop a few ratings.

The Stipes nowadays do not actually do a lot to be fair.

 

[Nowornever]

9 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Yes the drivers can say anything and the Stipes say ok!

The whole thing has become a farce. Has anyone ever actually been charged after being asked to explain an improved performance? If not, then what's the point? It's hard to take it seriously when it seems like just a box-ticking exercise for the stewards. Asking the question without ever following through makes the whole process look weak and pointless.

[the galah]

 

Well the bookies opened claasee at $1.70 today and it drifted to $2.05.

The money tracker shows today it was  by far the most heavily supported in its race.

Really,this horse is the gift that keeps giving for the bookies.

Claasee,was unlucky last start for sure,but how many horses back up 4 days after a gut buster like it had on sunday.Then to top things off it was asked to loop the field midrace.Maybe they were the instructions,but it was  money for jam for the bookmakers today.

One thing i've noticed about southland racing and really most harness meetings,is how ridiculously short some favorites are.

So often these days,the bookies open a horse short and then it just gets shorter.

today 3 of the first 4 winners paid $1.75 or under. Another 2 paid $2.50 and $2.80. The $2.80 winner wasn't even favorite.

if you put a $ e.w on all the favorites on ff prices around closing time,you would have spent $14,backed 4 of the 7 winners but lost money. 

On tuesday at cambrdge there were some crazy hot favorites.

The likes of patrick mahomes,who is a horse i've followed,closed paying only $2 to win.I mean patrick mahomes a $2 favorite was just ridiculous.

All these hot favorites really isn't helping turnover.

Really you can see why harness is struggling. 

only the grass tracks with the big even fields provide a betting product which has appeal to the punters.

these other meetings with so many hot fasvorites,even when they win,unless you got on really early,you would never back them in the last hour because the prices are so ridiculous.

and as i've said,lthe tote prices for favorites thse days mimics the ff closing prices as it appears the bookies off load as the race closes to limit their losses on the favorites,thus dropping the tote prices.

anyways,southland has been heading down the same path as auckland racing. Just not as attractive to bet on like it used to be a few years ago.

[Nowornever]

16 minutes ago, the galah said:

3 of the first 4 winners paid $1.75 or under. Another 2 paid $2.50 and $2.80. The $2.80 winner wasn't even favorite.

Winter racing is like that. Most serious punters close up shop over the winter months. Short favourites mixed with the odd $50.00 longshot you didn't see coming. Not my cup of tea.

[Brodie]

“Hot favourites isn't helping turnover”

What isn’t helping turnover more, is the fact that the TAB is not wanting punters who want to put a reasonable amount on or punters who actually wager to win!

The fact that they limit the bonus bets and bonus cash to such pathetically low limits is clearly telling us that they only want the smaller punters!

They are very risk averse, and do not treat punters equally by any measure.

Entain really are biding their time till they have thrown  the 900m into the pot, and what have they to show for it?

 

 

 

 

money at harness racing

 

[the galah]

1 hour ago, Brodie said:

The fact that they limit the bonus bets and bonus cash to such pathetically low limits is clearly telling us that they only want the smaller punters!

 

 

 

 

yes,and i would say in nz the number of smaller punters is declining at a faster rate on harness racing due to the lower tote dividends of the favorites ,when compared to galloping.

i read this week that  turnover on british horse sacing was down 1.6 billion pounds in the last 2 years.

as to the last 3 months,british racing  turnovers for run of the mill meetings is down 14.4%,although the premier meetings have stayed at the same levels.

Larger punters are seen as the main drivers of turnover at the run of the mill meetings,but they are not iinvesting like they used to,which is being blamed to a large degree on the rules the government brought in around gambling,with betting agencies having to check peoples credit and profit losses,etc. Apparently 1/3 of larger punters have instead turned to black market betting providers.. Of course you can't do that in nz.

but the point being,that whatever the reason punters are being restricted for, either here or in britain,its the larger punters who drive turnover and if the larger punters are being discouraged from betting then turnovers will fall.

all pretty much just common sense you would think.

i know some people will say here,well the less winning punters you have the better your profit/loss.

While there is some logic to that,that seems to be what is trying to be implemented here and of course thats directly related to turnovers going down.

we all know its pointless for someone to even put as little as $200 a place on the tote on a horse at a run of the mill harness meeting here.

e.g. say you put $200 a place on the biggest turnover race at winton today,which was race 7. Had you backed,closer to start time, the 2nd horse you would have halved its dividend from $5.20 to about $2.50. Or say if you had put that $200 a pl;ace on the 3rd horse you would have dropped its dividend from $2.60 to about $1.60.

 I mean .lets face it,only i a fool would be putting much on the tote these days because of the low pools.

so only the smaller punters are still investing on nz harness on the totes and the bigger,more successful punters are investing on the ff and if successful are being limited.

so its inevtitable that racing in areas which have low starter numbers and lots of hot favorites,are going to be a drain on the industry.

And the crazy thing about harness racing is that the governing body is viewed as prioritising the people who provide the horses at the meetings that return losses and that the governing body does that at the expense of those who provide the horses for the meetings that run at a profit.

i mean,its quite hard to comprehend the stupidity of those who are making these decisions,but they are.

the whole industry,whether it be the governing body or those who's job it is to promote turnover, are both heading in the wrong direction. And when you head in the wrong direction,even if you realise and turn around and go in the right direction,you have to travel so much further just to end back at square one w,whcih is where you started.And of course,thats a problem when you only have a finite amount of petrol in the car. 

[mikeynz]

If you don't limit some punters on fixed then they will skim Entain of funds over time so in reality if they are restricted they don't bet and if they cant get the return on the tote they'd like they don't bet there either, looking at many of the harness tote pools that's happening but reality is small fields with dominating favorites ain't good for business and ain't a good sustainable model.

[Brodie]

19 minutes ago, mikeynz said:

If you don't limit some punters on fixed then they will skim Entain of funds over time so in reality if they are restricted they don't bet and if they cant get the return on the tote they'd like they don't bet there either, looking at many of the harness tote pools that's happening but reality is small fields with dominating favorites ain't good for business and ain't a good sustainable model.

Entain are a big global betting corporation that didnt come to little NZ to help out NZ racing despite the media hype of being the saviour of the TAB.

The way they are putting in this $900m I believe is not being spent in an intelligent way and what is going to be the result when the 5 years is up?

The business plan has been flawed by the TAB for a decade now by restricting punters to pathetically low limits in this day and age!

They promote this bonus bets and bonus cash to show that turnover is going ok when they are keeping the turnover up by their own cash!

Maximum bonus bets of $20 is just laughable seriously.

They should be encouraging punting as the consequences have a flow on affect to racing.

 

[mikeynz]

I'm starting to believe Harness racing is losing it's appeal to many in more ways than one, some feely average racedays  that many just skip by.