Racing’s data and demographic challenge

[Murray Fish]

 

By Bren O'Brien - May 07, 2025

One of the key arguments made by the Australian Turf Club in its pitch to members to sell Rosehill is that racing’s popularity is on the decline. But the varying data on this crucial point reveals a much broader challenge for the racing industry.

Data that is conflicting or simply lacking enough integrity is hindering racing's ability to properly understand its customer base. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)

A survey of 10,000 people, conducted and released by the NSW government last year, revealed that the percentage of people who bet on racing has slumped from 12.9 per cent in 2019 to 9.9 per cent last year.

Even more concerning for the racing industry, was the fact in 2011, that figure stood at 24 per cent.

The NSW Gambling Survey 2024 is conducted every five years by the NSW Responsible Gambling Fund and was cited in the Australian Turf Club’s extensive missive to members sent this week, as evidence of racing’s decline in popularity.

“Participation (by percentage of the population) in race betting in NSW has declined by 23.3% over the last five years (from 12.9% in 2019 to 9.9% in 2024). This represented the largest decline among major gaming and wagering activities,” the ATC document read.

“Online betting has provided greater access to other sports, which appear to be gaining market share.”

Leaving aside that the NSW survey also said that percentage betting on sport was actually down from 8 per cent to 7.6 per cent on when the survey was first conducted in 2006 – something which seem incongruous given the change in the sports betting landscape in that time – the data on racing also conflicts with broader racing turnover figures.

National turnover figures – Racing NSW doesn’t publish state-based turnover – show at least a 10 per cent growth from 2019 to 2023, albeit with a massive peak over the pandemic which has since declined.

Curiously, a survey conducted by the Australian Gambling Research Centre (AGCR) in 2022, with a sample size of 1765, showed that 38.1 per cent of adults gambled on horse racing in the previous 12 months.

That survey indicated 72.8 per cent of Australians had spent money on gambling in the past 12 months, where the NSW study conducted in 2024 had that figure at 53.2 per cent.

Now there is a possibility that NSW may be much more conservative in its gambling than the rest of the country, but gambling expenditure trends indicate 41 per cent of money spent on gambling in Australia is wagered in that state, which has 31 per cent of Australia’s population.

The NSW survey may be a correct measure of the true role of racing in the broader gambling landscape, or the AGCR research may be right, but one thing is for sure, they can not both be right.

There is seemingly no end of government departments, state and federal, who put out data on gambling in Australia, usually through the prism of minimising gambling harm.

These reports are important to measure the broader implications of gambling harm in our community, but given the results vary wildly when it comes to specifics, they would not seem a suitable platform on which to make broader assumptions about the direction of the racing industry.

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Racing is notoriously terrible at understanding its customers. There are myriad reasons for this, including the divided nature of the states, the club versus regulator model and the fragmented wagering environment.

The chief cause of this is a lack of data.

The most recent edition of Racing Australia’s Fact Book failed to feature wagering turnover, arguably one of the most important raw metrics given the industry’s reliance on betting.

ATC’s $57 million carrot for members to support Rosehill sale

The Straight understands that at least two states raised concerns over the accuracy of wagering data, so they refused to participate. Anecdotally, we have been told that the most recent annual turnover figures of $26.3 billion in 2022/23 may actually be significantly less than the true number.

How can racing bodies make strategic decisions when they do not have authoritative numbers on even the most fundamental of data points?

Well, they rely on third-party data, of course.

 

 

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But when you consider that the Rosehill sale shapes as the biggest transaction in Australian racing history, how reliable is that data? And can you afford to cherry-pick it?

While looking at the NSW Gambling Survey 2024, the ATC may have come across a couple of other concerning figures.

The first is the role of women. The NSW data indicated just 5.7 per cent of women had bet on racing in the past 12 months. The AGRC’s figures in 2022 were much higher at 28.8 per cent.

The other demographic aspect which stands out in the NSW report is the participation of people who speak a language other than English at home. Essentially, a measure of those from migrant backgrounds, this was stark.

While the survey reported that 11.3 per cent of people who spoke English at home had bet on racing within the past 12 months, it was just 1.8 per cent of those who spoke a language other than English. That’s a six-fold difference.

When you consider that 22.3 per cent of people in Australia speak a language other than English at home, it tells you that racing has a huge challenge appealing to what can be characterised as its “non-traditional” audience.

How the ATC plans to attract the heartland of western Sydney, something it admits it has struggled to do at Rosehill, is a crucial plank of making the grand plans for Warwick Farm work.

It is also surely a factor that when you are considering spending $800 million rebuilding a racecourse in a local government area such as Liverpool where 53.8 per cent of people speak a language other than English at home.

[Wingman]

This should be compulsory reading for NZTR. When you factor in the above, then add the year on year falling foal crop, why oh why, have we not had real discussion and change with the racing calendar. On that note the trainers Assn had a meeting 48 hours ago re their extreme displeasure as to the state of our tracks but the silence is deafening.

[mikeynz]

Reading the above story emphasizes it's not just Auckland losing ground.

[Shab]

They might not speak good English but they're not silly. Bookies offer 130% market and they think why would I give this guy 1 dollar to get 76 cents back. 

[Murray Fish]

11 hours ago, mikeynz said:

Reading the above story emphasizes it's not just Auckland losing ground.

The reality is that the (World)  Industry is heading directly into the sunset, reflected by so many key  metric, as shown in the lead article. Now where's that cool-aid!

ps. What you reckon boay's  resident  cost accountant would make of a article like this one?

[Murray Fish]

@TAB For Ever you rose tinted glasses take on this?  

please compare and contrast with NZ data of similar ilk.

I have people beating their feet to my door to become involved! all keen to do due diligence before do so, where do I direct them!

[TAB For Ever]

On 5/10/2025 at 1:44 PM, Murray Fish said:

@TAB For Ever you rose tinted glasses take on this?  

please compare and contrast with NZ data of similar ilk.

I have people beating their feet to my door to become involved! all keen to do due diligence before do so, where do I direct them!

Well MFish ,as the poster for sale suggests we spend too much time and energy on things we have no control over .

Plus its Australia ,a much bigger country and racing industry with far loftier betting habits !

But after skimming the article I note that all this is dropping/declining /shrinking.

This been happening for decades in New Zealand.

Even before Lotto was introduced in 1987 and stern competition hit the NZ TAB.

Yes ,Racing in NZ been in decline for a while ...Racing folk like many ,found change hard and pretty much failed to adapt !

Yes I have the odd grizzle and things I don't agree with but can honestly say it is a great time to be involved. 

Seen some great racing in past few years ,including a couple racing trips to Aussie. These plus Cup week in Chch , Karaka Day , Champions Day and other Group racing days seen the best racing ever ! Both codes.

The Harness slot race recently on top of Karaka. and Champions day were sensational. And trainers ,jockeys being well rewarded and owners getting many more opportunities to pay their way.

Punters have so many extra options now ,in racing and sport . Communication and information so up to date and relevant. I belong to at least one club which is looking for continuous improvement and well placed for good racing into the future with solid ,modern infrastructure.

I've lived thru many miserable winters in the south ,so I understand how you may look at my rose-tinted glasses with an air of resentment/envy .

[Murray Fish]

On 12/05/2025 at 6:37 PM, TAB For Ever said:

so I understand how you may look at my rose-tinted glasses with an air of resentment/envy

(opps,when that sort reply just keep getting longer, if its a bit rambling please bear with me,  usually a long post means I'm close to getting out of here, even out of the ind...) sigh

@TAB For Ever That bit  above is what really pisses me off about you!!! 

ME!! resentful and envy!!! of someone in NZ Racing?  Gee, I 'know' how hard any success can be! As I have matured over the years, i have tried to learn to not let any peti dislike I might have for a jockey or trainer or owner to cloud my 'betting mind'.. for me to do that I have had to learn to note any silly thinking around the likes of r/e, being aware of stupid cognitive bias.    umm  r/e you reckon i have?

r/e in my house? which has a fecking games room! full of 100's of games!!! 7 year old me!!! 1000% of those wants got), I be living in a very good paddock! 

This r/e?? I be gifted with the ability to daily generate Gratitude!  G is the Negation of r/e!

Another point,  you  seem to  sneer around that fact that I live in the South! You Do know that I have lived (not visited) in Hong Kong! London! twice in lower Manhattan...  I'm sure that because I had to deal with the may actual life struggles  to 'DO that lifestyle!" Gee, do you thinking sleeping rough can aid the development of Gratuity?  you got much of that tabby?

Gee, tabby, I be back for more! 3 visitor so far since I started this!!!

r/e:  in my relationships with important people in my life, in my near community (of which I know the families of 98 of the closes houses to ours)...  I doubt very many would be saying I ever display much of that old r/e   oh, yes I do find some disgust in the chosen lifestyles  of many in the peti and bourgeois class, many being quite vulgar!  but any r/e,  0.00001% for , that vulgar behaviour can often be seen at the end of one of those big jaffa race days that you are keen on!!!! btw, I would be there with whistles and bells if I was near by!near by!

Talking Auck,  seen you seem to want to know about all the places I have lived!  (I once had a cat that lived to 21 and in that time 16 house moves! with 7 city moves! Jean long Batten, she did live up to her name!  Gee, I  seemed to have all these exciting times in me life! I have lived 3 times in Auck,  from days and nights of  so many adventures when living in Kyper Pass Road in my youth! it really was lots of music love sex drugs.. Never a days labour to be had...   also live in Albany! Saturday afternoon was always fun, every one that had been visiting the  local Maximum Prison down the road would drop in for a drink! Often staying late into the night!  Only certain people can usually drink with that sort!   I once lived in Manurewa, (doing some racing phots then) I could go into the local public bar, 200 brown fellas and one not much bigger than a jockey white fella!  a while fella who has always had this gift to front up to 'strangers' in lots of different  situations and places!  if only i had the recall to share some of the Laughs along the way...

Another tack! re my  current relationship with things racing.. encase you want to know,.. remember that I took 1000 plus shots at both meetings..

I spoke to 50 people at Ascot Park on Sunday, 10 serious Racing Politics discussions*, others, often started after each race with "are you any wiser after that??", it really is a great opening line! leads to so many answers and the conversations flows... now I 'know' than often that is the first time many have got to be talking with that M Fish fella! many I am lead to believe forms their opinions about me! gee, you reckon they would be saying he being the  r/e type bugger me!

Would you like me to share a interesting fact that I did learn on the big southern trip,  my racing photo collection (note I OWN the copyright) has a rather large amount of Photos of Historical Importance.  The sad part for the Industry, is that I can no longer give away any more photos, you do know of my long history of helping out struggling people with those sorts of things...  sigh, I'm raving again!

actually, perhaps I now need a cost acc??  dominate player in Industry goe$ 5"x&7" $35     me, $7..   but, that same photo to the person who seen the PoHI I have has now rather gone up...  so, should I sell this PoHI one by one? in one sale to one of the big world photo libraries,  sadly they then get charged out at USA$..  refer to current Fairfax realty!  sigh,  or as the great man once said "know when to walk away"... 

 

To finish: I am a hard nose economic realist! Who sadly just knows way to much about the Historical Materialism of NZ Racing History!  one who really is more and more struggling with getting the needed energy to continue with building my historical collection!!!  when! on another front I have now be approach by two large collections organisations of nz photo history! both are rather keen Just to see parts of it!!! But I now those institution can be that great what with only being based in backward old  D town, eh! oh the fecking irony! champion  in one camp! chump in other!!!!

Hey possible news @TAB For Ever  I 'might' just be coming out of retirement for a rather exciting 'fight' with one of racing all time Heavyweight Intellectuals!  known to some as Theboygenuis.. to others he adds the value of a dog shit!

[TAB For Ever]

13 minutes ago, Murray Fish said:

(opps,when that sort reply just keep getting longer, if its a bit rambling please bear with me,  usually a long post means I'm close to getting out of here, even out of the ind...) sigh

@TAB For Ever That bit  above is what really pisses me off about you!!! 

ME!! resentful and envy!!! of someone in NZ Racing?  Gee, I 'know' how hard any success can be! As I have matured over the years, i have tried to learn to not let any peti dislike I might have for a jockey or trainer or owner to cloud my 'betting mind'.. for me to do that I have had to learn to note any silly thinking around the likes of r/e, being aware of stupid cognitive bias.    umm  r/e you reckon i have?

r/e in my house? which has a fecking games room! full of 100's of games!!! 7 year old me!!! 1000% of those wants got), I be living in a very good paddock! 

This r/e?? I be gifted with the ability to daily generate Gratitude!  G is the Negation of r/e!

Another point,  you  seem to  sneer around that fact that I live in the South! You Do know that I have lived (not visited) in Hong Kong! London! twice in lower Manhattan...  I'm sure that because I had to deal with the may actual life struggles  to 'DO that lifestyle!" Gee, do you thinking sleeping rough can aid the development of Gratuity?  you got much of that tabby?

Gee, tabby, I be back for more! 3 visitor so far since I started this!!!

r/e:  in my relationships with important people in my life, in my near community (of which I know the families of 98 of the closes houses to ours)...  I doubt very many would be saying I ever display much of that old r/e   oh, yes I do find some disgust in the chosen lifestyles  of many in the peti and bourgeois class, many being quite vulgar!  but any r/e,  0.00001% for , that vulgar behaviour can often be seen at the end of one of those big jaffa race days that you are keen on!!!! btw, I would be there with whistles and bells if I was near by!near by!

Talking Auck,  seen you seem to want to know about all the places I have lived!  (I once had a cat that lived to 21 and in that time 16 house moves! with 7 city moves! Jean long Batten, she did live up to her name!  Gee, I  seemed to have all these exciting times in me life! I have lived 3 times in Auck,  from days and nights of  so many adventures when living in Kyper Pass Road in my youth! it really was lots of music love sex drugs.. Never a days labour to be had...   also live in Albany! Saturday afternoon was always fun, every one that had been visiting the  local Maximum Prison down the road would drop in for a drink! Often staying late into the night!  Only certain people can usually drink with that sort!   I once lived in Manurewa, (doing some racing phots then) I could go into the local public bar, 200 brown fellas and one not much bigger than a jockey white fella!  a while fella who has always had this gift to front up to 'strangers' in lots of different  situations and places!  if only i had the recall to share some of the Laughs along the way...

Another tack! re my  current relationship with things racing.. encase you want to know,.. remember that I took 1000 plus shots at both meetings..

I spoke to 50 people at Ascot Park on Sunday, 10 serious Racing Politics discussions*, others, often started after each race with "are you any wiser after that??", it really is a great opening line! leads to so many answers and the conversations flows... now I 'know' than often that is the first time many have got to be talking with that M Fish fella! many I am lead to believe forms their opinions about me! gee, you reckon they would be saying he being the  r/e type bugger me!

Would you like me to share a interesting fact that I did learn on the big southern trip,  my racing photo collection (note I OWN the copyright) has a rather large amount of Photos of Historical Importance.  The sad part for the Industry, is that I can no longer give away any more photos, you do know of my long history of helping out struggling people with those sorts of things...  sigh, I'm raving again!

actually, perhaps I now need a cost acc??  dominate player in Industry goe$ 5"x&7" $35     me, $7..   but, that same photo to the person who seen the PoHI I have has now rather gone up...  so, should I sell this PoHI one by one? in one sale to one of the big world photo libraries,  sadly they then get charged out at USA$..  refer to current Fairfax realty!  sigh,  or as the great man once said "know when to walk away"... 

 

To finish: I am a hard nose economic realist! Who sadly just knows way to much about the Historical Materialism of NZ Racing History!  one who really is more and more struggling with getting the needed energy to continue with building my historical collection!!!  when! on another front I have now be approach by two large collections organisations of nz photo history! both are rather keen Just to see parts of it!!! But I now those institution can be that great what with only being based in backward old  D town, eh! oh the fecking irony! champion  in one camp! chump in other!!!!

Hey possible news @TAB For Ever  I 'might' just be coming out of retirement for a rather exciting 'fight' with one of racing all time Heavyweight Intellectuals!  known to some as Theboygenuis.. to others he adds the value of a dog shit!

Sigh........don't take yourself so seriously !!! 

This a horse racing site made up of anonymous posters. , you said yourself you used to take the piss on-line !

I'm impressed you have lived around a bit ,and taken a few photos...did you know Bill Cunningham from New York ?

You sound scary, wanting to fight people .....Sigh !

I saw Leo recently I doubt he could pull a sailor off his auntie....sigh !

[Wingman]

You two, the  cousins (twice removed) 'SIGH' should take a trip to Venice together, give each other a hug on the Bridge of Sighs and all will be well between you 😂

[Chief Stipe]

@TAB For Ever no doubt your stint (extended?) at Otago University when men were men, women were glad and sheep were scared was what turned you into a reasonably well rounded person.  Perhaps if you had worried less about the weather...