Another Open Letter...from a NZ Racing stakeholder!

[curious]

35 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

How is a 20% increase in Stakes Funding over the time frame you posted "stagnant"?  

Read again. As the Entain funding became available, it was phased into stakes increases over the first 2 seasons with the full amount after that with a $10m funding increase for last season. Though they put enough in for the first season to ensure the current stake levels from year 1. There's no plan to increase those or total stakes funding by more than CPI through the remainder of the deal at which point they will likely drop unless they find something at the end of the rainbow.

[Chief Stipe]

41 minutes ago, curious said:

Read again. As the Entain funding became available, it was phased into stakes increases over the first 2 seasons with the full amount after that with a $10m funding increase for last season. Though they put enough in for the first season to ensure the current stake levels from year 1. There's no plan to increase those or total stakes funding by more than CPI through the remainder of the deal at which point they will likely drop unless they find something at the end of the rainbow.

So I gather you agree then that stakes are increasing 20% over the next five years.  That isn't stagnant.

[curious]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

So I gather you agree then that stakes are increasing 20% over the next five years.  That isn't stagnant.

Not over the next 5 years. Where do you get that idea from?

[hesi]

I make it, stakes paid out

22/23 - 2.53 mil

23/24 - 3.001 mil

24/25 - 3.567 mil

Year on year increases 18.6 and 18.9%

[curious]

21 minutes ago, hesi said:

I make it, stakes paid out

22/23 - 2.53 mil

23/24 - 3.001 mil

24/25 - 3.567 mil

Year on year increases 18.6 and 18.9%

Given NZTR paid out circa $100m stakes funding in the latter 2 years at least, $3mil seems a bit light. Maybe check your arithmetic.  Hopefully, things don't get that bad going forward!

Edited Tuesday at 05:41 AM by curious

[hesi]

23 minutes ago, curious said:

Given NZTR paid out circa $100m stakes funding in the latter 2 years at least, $3mil seems a bit light. Maybe check your arithmetic.  Hopefully, things don't get that bad going forward!

Go for it, only 10 meetings per season, so straightforward 

[Chief Stipe]

2 hours ago, curious said:

Not over the next 5 years. Where do you get that idea from?

From the table you posted.  From $93m to $112m.  

[curious]

26 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

From the table you posted.  From $93m to $112m.  

If you mean from FY24 thru FY28 (predicted). For that 4 years, yes that's ~20%. That's what I said. What's your point?

Edited Tuesday at 07:05 AM by curious

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, curious said:

If you mean from FY24 thru FY28 (predicted). For that 4 years, yes that's ~20%. That's what I said. What's your point?

FFS that isn't stagnant is it?  Even if you do use a tilde like a negative sign.  It is a +20% increase!

Why are you becoming so miserable?

[curious]

10 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Even if you do use a tilde like a negative sign.  It is a +20% increase!

As far as I know ~ means approximately equal. Never heard it be read as a negative sign.

Edited Tuesday at 08:41 AM by curious

[curious]

19 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

FFS that isn't stagnant is it?  Even if you do use a tilde like a negative sign.  It is a +20% increase!

Why are you becoming so miserable?

Oh and there's no need to shout if you disagree with me. I'll hear you without that.

[Chief Stipe]

1 minute ago, curious said:

Oh and there's no need to shout if you disagree with me. I'll hear you without that.

Well you don't appear to be listening.

A tilde "~" can mean many things in mathematics but I guess ambiguity suits your argument.

[curious]

20 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

FFS that isn't stagnant is it?  

To me it's certainly stagnant, with no year on year increase from last year and none predicted in the next two.

[Chief Stipe]

5 minutes ago, curious said:

To me it's certainly stagnant, with no year on year increase from last year and none predicted in the next two.

Uh?  The table you presented has year on year stake increases for each year.

[curious]

10 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Uh?  The table you presented has year on year stake increases for each year.

Of about CPI, so not increases in real terms.

[Chief Stipe]

41 minutes ago, curious said:

Of about CPI, so not increases in real terms.

"Of about" - what does that mean?  Surprised you didn't use a tilde.

Now you're backtracking because your original statement was wrong.    You're also predicting inflation for the next three years.  

Why have you fallen down this negative dark rabbit hole?  Spending too much time on the dark pond side?

[curious]

I'm not sure that pedantic discussion about whether the state of stakes qualifies as "stagnant" or not, is very useful. To me they are because most horses are racing for the same winning stakes as they were for the last two seasons, And that is likely to continue for the next couple.

Why that description of stakes in the head post has become the focus of this thread doesn't make a lot of sense to me, when I find most of it vague and not well argued even if it does make a couple of good points.

[Chief Stipe]

53 minutes ago, curious said:

I'm not sure that pedantic discussion about whether the state of stakes qualifies as "stagnant" or not, is very useful.

Ya reckon?  It is clear that Stakes have increased after decades of decline in real or whatever terms you want to use.

55 minutes ago, curious said:

To me they are because most horses are racing for the same winning stakes as they were for the last two seasons, And that is likely to continue for the next couple.

I thought you said a pedantic discussion wasn't worth having?

But overall there are more stakes being distributed year on year.  As for predicting the future well whether it is "likely" or not is just an opinion.  A negative one at that.

 

[hesi]

22 hours ago, hesi said:

Just doing something this avo, but will double check one set of figures about the actual money raced for from the NZTR calendar over the last 3 seasons.  It allows for abandonments and transfer of races to another venue or date.  I have not included money from any of the sweepstake races in each season.

At this stage it is

22/23 - 72.4 million (70.5 mil claimed)

23/24 - 95.5 million (to be re-checked versus the claimed 90.8 mil)

24/25 - 101 million

Perhaps someone could explain how this is stagnation

 

I re-checked my figs

22/23 - 72.4 mil (70.5 mil published)

23/24 - 96 mil (up from my fig of 95.5, was out on Nov, Dec and June so re-checked those again.  Not sure why it is higher than the published 90.8 mil)

24/25 - 101 mil

For the first 3 months of the 25/26 season

25/26 - 21.857 mil vs for the first 3 months of 24/25 20.681 mil, a 5.7% increase

I don't know what will happen for the last 9 months of 25/26, but you cannot describe these figs as stagnation.

I also analysed the stake money for the South Island in 24/25

23.7 mil out of the 101 mil total, so 23.5% of the industry.  Not sure whether this would be viewed as acceptable or not, but certainly not insignificant

 

[curious]

1 hour ago, hesi said:

I also analysed the stake money for the South Island in 24/25

23.7 mil out of the 101 mil total, so 23.5% of the industry.  Not sure whether this would be viewed as acceptable or not, but certainly not insignificant

 

As far as I can see, stakes for the SI are the same as the NI, unchanged for most races for 3 seasons, though a couple of jumps races, the Guineas, NZ Cup etc. have been boosted.

[Chief Stipe]

If thw @Comic Dog and @nomates want to go back 3 years and turn down $18.4k maidens then go for it.  Guys dont forget where you have come from.