Hey Chief…. Views on Damask Rose?

[Newmarket]

Hey Chief, 

We had a discussion about horse awhile ago, i thought it has been pretty dissapointing, average again today, cant understand why they dont target lesser opposition, something she can win. 
 

I know you love it, so be interesting to hear your views.
 

I 

[Chief Stipe]

Well since you are a form expert what race do you think the Trainer is aimimg for?

[curious]

So, what are your view on her @Chief Stipe?

[Chief Stipe]

8 minutes ago, curious said:

So, what are your view on her @Chief Stipe?

I wouldn't be unhappy with two Grp 3 placings this time in.   Like @Newmarket as an expert form analyst what do you think they are aiming for and is she on track?

[Huey]

57 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I wouldn't be unhappy with two Grp 3 placings this time in.   Like @Newmarket as an expert form analyst what do you think they are aiming for and is she on track?

Answer the question you negative Nelly,As  the leader of the Tangerine army you should know your form.

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, Huey said:

Answer the question you negative Nelly,As  the leader of the Tangerine army you should know your form.

I did answer it.  Obviously Waldorf and Statler are not talking to you.

Your opinion?  Or will you wait for instructions?  PS: you might want to let Waldorf know that he has his analysis of todays Group winners way wrong.  For example Streisand was purchased for AUD$100k and Cinsault is a Goldophin bred horse.  Hardly homebred.

[Newmarket]

2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

I wouldn't be unhappy with two Grp 3 placings this time in.   Like @Newmarket as an expert form analyst what do you think they are aiming for and is she on track?

No need to be nasty, just asking a question. 

[Newmarket]

How about 1880m at Kangaroo Island today… running for $46 k. 
Also races Rosehill & Doomben, lets be honest, try another track as obviously its battling at Caulfield 

[curious]

2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

I wouldn't be unhappy with two Grp 3 placings this time in.   Like @Newmarket as an expert form analyst what do you think they are aiming for and is she on track?

I wouldn't know. Don't really follow Oz racing that closely but like to hear how kiwi horses are doing over there. Do you know, or what do you think, or are you saying that 2 G3 placings is it?

[Chief Stipe]

9 minutes ago, curious said:

I wouldn't know. Don't really follow Oz racing that closely but like to hear how kiwi horses are doing over there. Do you know, or what do you think, or are you saying that 2 G3 placings is it?

 No not at all.  But she seems to have come back better this time in compared to last time.  OZ Grp 3 black type boosts her residual value.

She improves during a prep and Te Akau will have a decent race in mind for her over there.  I thought her run was good today.  Not sure Willo is the most suitable jockey for her.  I saw her lift towards the end of todays race but the race was over.

[curious]

3 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

 No not at all.  But she seems to have come back better this time in compared to last time.  OZ Grp 3 black type boosts her residual value.

She improves during a prep and Te Akau will have a decent race in mind for her over there.  I thought her run was good today.  Not sure Willo is the most suitable jockey for her.  I saw her lift towards the end of todays race but the race was over.

Just had a look myself at the run. I thought it was pretty good. I'd be happy with that if she were mine.

[Chief Stipe]

10 hours ago, Newmarket said:

How about 1880m at Kangaroo Island today… running for $46 k. 
Also races Rosehill & Doomben, lets be honest, try another track as obviously its battling at Caulfield 

Remind me again how many horses you have trained to win anything?  Probably a bit like your punting.

Damask Rose has won $54k in two starts this time in PLUS chalked up some valuable Grp placings for her pedigree page.  Hardly struggling.

But if you had any clue about how horses are trained and the fact that in a prep there is one or two "big dance" targets you'd realise that her two 2026 runs at Caulfield have been very good.  Add to that she hasn't had the cleanest of runs either.

She holds a nominaton for the Queen of the Turf 1600m $1m Grp1 at Randwick in April.  You'd know that of course as you do extensive research - not.  My guess is there is a race for her in the 1500 to 1600m range before then at Grp level.

[Newmarket]

55 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Remind me again how many horses you have trained to win anything?  Probably a bit like your punting.

Damask Rose has won $54k in two starts this time in PLUS chalked up some valuable Grp placings for her pedigree page.  Hardly struggling.

But if you had any clue about how horses are trained and the fact that in a prep there is one or two "big dance" targets you'd realise that her two 2026 runs at Caulfield have been very good.  Add to that she hasn't had the cleanest of runs either.

She holds a nominaton for the Queen of the Turf 1600m $1m Grp1 at Randwick in April.  You'd know that of course as you do extensive research - not.  My guess is there is a race for her in the 1500 to 1600m range before then at Grp level.

Yes you mentioned the Big Dance targets months ago…. not happened and i very much doubt it will. In fact, wouldnt surprise me if its retired soon. 
 

[Chief Stipe]

33 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

Yes you mentioned the Big Dance targets months ago…. not happened and i very much doubt it will. In fact, wouldnt surprise me if its retired soon. 
 

You are either deliberately playing the muppet clown or once again confirming you have no clue about horse racing.

As far as I know from reading publicly available information is Damask Rose has no current soundness issues.

To repeat for your benefit - two Grp 3 placings in OZ for AUD$54k from 2 starts this prep.  A great start to any campaign.

Again for your benefit - mares who have had fairly hard 2 and or 3yr old campaigns will sometimes struggle early in their 4yr old season.  Some don't many do.  She seens a lot better heading into the Autumn this year.

Considering she performs best 3rd and 4th starts in a campaign, she is sound, racing well and is only 4 I don't see her "being retired soon".    Unless of course you have "inside information".  The best racing years for a mare are 5 and 6.

With $2.1m in the bank winning some highly rated races the best option for her owners is to chase OZ black type to build her residual value.  That residual value would be $1.5m+ currently which is also be helped by being a full sister to Provence the multiple Grp 1 winning mare.

[hesi]

She is doing better this campaign because she is racing against lower class horses (G3).  In her last campaign she had 3 runs at G1 level and ran poorly.  To aim this season for a G1, against the best fillies and mares in Aus is quite frankly dreaming.

She has done well to win the Kiwi and KM, and most of her prizemoney is from those 2 races, but she is clearly 2nd or 3rd tier down when tried in Aus.

[curious]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

 The best racing years for a mare are 5 and 6.

Where do you get that from?

I thought peak performance was the 4yo year for both mares and geldings.

Edited 57 minutes ago by curious

[Chief Stipe]

15 minutes ago, hesi said:

She is doing better this campaign because she is racing against lower class horses (G3).  In her last campaign she had 3 runs at G1 level and ran poorly.  To aim this season for a G1, against the best fillies and mares in Aus is quite frankly dreaming.

She has done well to win the Kiwi and KM, and most of her prizemoney is from those 2 races, but she is clearly 2nd or 3rd tier down when tried in Aus.

Well the horse than ran second to her in the KiwiB - Evaporate ran 4th in the Grp 1 Futurity yesterday beaten less than a length.

As for her Grp 1 runs in her last campaign.  Her second up was her best run.  Beaten 2.5 lengths in the Grp 1 Rupert Clarke.  There was some very good horses in front of her and behind her.  In my opinion she raced well below her best in that campaign.

As for "quite frankly dreaming" - well I'd be happy dreaming to win a decent Grp race in OZ with a horse I owned.  The trick in OZ is to place your horse and Mark Walker has done pretty well with that over the years.  

I guess racing is a sport but it just astounds me the level of negativity.  No comment on Leica Lucy's run yesterday.

[Chief Stipe]

7 minutes ago, curious said:

Where do you get that from?

I thought peak performance was the 4yo year for both mares and geldings.

Personal experience and observation.  As for your statistics - where did you drag these ones from?

[hesi]

32 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Well the horse than ran second to her in the KiwiB - Evaporate ran 4th in the Grp 1 Futurity yesterday beaten less than a length.

As for her Grp 1 runs in her last campaign.  Her second up was her best run.  Beaten 2.5 lengths in the Grp 1 Rupert Clarke.  There was some very good horses in front of her and behind her.  In my opinion she raced well below her best in that campaign.

As for "quite frankly dreaming" - well I'd be happy dreaming to win a decent Grp race in OZ with a horse I owned.  The trick in OZ is to place your horse and Mark Walker has done pretty well with that over the years.  

I guess racing is a sport but it just astounds me the level of negativity.  No comment on Leica Lucy's run yesterday.

Just trying to objectively appraise her based on performances to date and she is clearly not up to G1 class based on her runs over there to date.  Negativity or positivity do not come into it

Leica Lucy made ground very well late to finish close up to Pericles.  I can't figure out why, a horse that was classed the best 3 year old staying filly of her year, other than her first run over there, has never been otherwise tried past 1600m in Aus.

Willydoit the Derby winner in the same season, also never tried past 1600m in Aus

Edited 21 minutes ago by hesi

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, hesi said:

Leica Lucy made ground very well late to finish close up to Pericles.  I can't figure out why, a horse that was classed the best 3 year old staying filly of her year, other than her first run over there, has never been otherwise tried past 1600m in Aus.

I sort of gave my opinon on that600 in another Topic.  She had a very hard and long 3yr old season.  More money and Grp1 opportunities at 1600m to 2200m i.e. middle distance than further.  Only so many km's you can race them in a prep.

[Chief Stipe]

4 minutes ago, hesi said:

Just trying to objectively appraise her based on performances to date and she is clearly not up to G1 class based on her runs over there to date.  Negativity or positivity do not come into it

But you have praised her performances on race outcomes not performance per se.

[hesi]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

But you have praised her performances on race outcomes not performance per se.

Same thing for all intents and purposes.

Have a look at the nominations for the Queen of the Turf Stakes, the cream of Aus female racing.  She is just not even close to that class

[curious]

49 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Personal experience and observation.  As for your statistics - where did you drag these ones from?

Peak performance is around ~4.5 years old

A major study using Beyer Speed Figures found that Thoroughbreds reach their peak racing age at about 4.45 years, with performance improving up to that point and gradually declining afterwards. [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]

My 10 years of performance data for NZ concurs alongside my personal observation. Might be different in Oz.