NZ DERBY 2026

[Murray Fish]

16 NOMS (so far)

highest rating 78,  Not a strong field?

2 colts, 12 geldings, 2 fillies

Road To Paris was given to me as a long term tip, needs to find some better racing manners at the end of the race!  Should be staying the extra distance and  I can see it winning

[hesi]

Towering Vision the mystery horse.  Looked well suited to running out the 2400m when second in the Waikato Guineas, then ran last in the Avondale Guineas, the tempo of the race being blamed.

This happened in last year's Avondale Guineas when fave Willydoit got done by the slow early tempo, then came out and easily won the Derby.........and hasn't won a race since

[Murray Fish]

On 2/03/2026 at 9:49 PM, Murray Fish said:

Road To Paris was given to me as a long term tip, needs to find some better racing manners at the end of the race!  Should be staying the extra distance and  I can see it winning

Yes! with thanks

[hesi]

That's Gold according to the rider failed to stay the distance.  How many times does that happen, showing a brilliance over 2000m (Avondale Guineas) but then not seeing out the 2400m.  Yulong made the wrong call there, or maybe not.  On recent experiences (Willydoit and Leica Lucy) brilliant over 2400m, but only ever raced up to 1600m in Aus

[Chief Stipe]

4 hours ago, hesi said:

That's Gold according to the rider failed to stay the distance.  How many times does that happen, showing a brilliance over 2000m (Avondale Guineas) but then not seeing out the 2400m.  Yulong made the wrong call there, or maybe not.  On recent experiences (Willydoit and Leica Lucy) brilliant over 2400m, but only ever raced up to 1600m in Aus

It is difficult to place a one dimensional horse whose forte is 2400m.  You can only race that distance two or three times at most in a season and you have to build to it.

We've discussed Leica Lucy before and as I said then they went to the well too many times.  Robbie Patterson said she needed a break.  She basically only had one preparation leading to the NZ Oaks win.  Sometimes it takes a long time to recover sometimes they don't recover.

I also wouldn't listen to what a Jockey says.  Often their post race media comment is slanted by disappointment and or a poor ride.  LOL I can think of numerous occasions where a Jockey has had a shyte ride and blamed the track conditions.

If Thats Gold is better suited to mile-middle distance then he has more chamce in OZ than an outright stayer.

[hesi]

53 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

It is difficult to place a one dimensional horse whose forte is 2400m.  You can only race that distance two or three times at most in a season and you have to build to it.

We've discussed Leica Lucy before and as I said then they went to the well too many times.  Robbie Patterson said she needed a break.  She basically only had one preparation leading to the NZ Oaks win.  Sometimes it takes a long time to recover sometimes they don't recover.

I also wouldn't listen to what a Jockey says.  Often their post race media comment is slanted by disappointment and or a poor ride.  LOL I can think of numerous occasions where a Jockey has had a shyte ride and blamed the track conditions.

If Thats Gold is better suited to mile-middle distance then he has more chamce in OZ than an outright stayer.

Have a look at the video.  The last 100m That's Gold was clearly stopping

[Chief Stipe]

15 minutes ago, hesi said:

Have a look at the video.  The last 100m That's Gold was clearly stopping

It wasn't stopping as much as the other horses were finishing over the top of it.  Was wide on the turn and got to the front too soon.  Collett could have waited.

10 horses finished behind it.  Could have finished a place or two closer if it hadn't got jammed 100m up resulting in the Jockey standing up.  Only 4 lengths from the winner.

Note in the vets report he was suffering from mild heat stress.  

[hesi]

Another example of not trusting AI

 

[Murray Fish]

35 minutes ago, hesi said:

Another example of not trusting AI*

*  for things Racing... especially NZ Racing...  

Of course, the material basis is all around more and more racing data being hidden away from the modern algorithmics.  Especially so much historical data!   This was brought to the attention of Head Office when the Love Racing data base was being programmed! lol,  the people that signed off with '79 being the starting point have now seen the chickens coming home to roast!!  just another example of why racing is heading towards the ........

[Chief Stipe]

8 hours ago, hesi said:

On recent experiences (Willydoit and Leica Lucy) brilliant over 2400m, but only ever raced up to 1600m in Aus

Just had another look at the All Star Mile.  That was a big run by Leica Lucy on the slow part of the track.  Of the 8 sectionals she had the fastest time in six of them and only beaten 1.5 lengths.

[hesi]

Yes a big run and she is a quality, genuine G1 horse, but why are they not putting her over more ground, that is her forte and why they paid big money for her.  Is there a lack of suitable races.  They need to get a wriggle on and secure a G1 win for her breeding value, and except for Winx they only have a limited life at the top.

[Chief Stipe]

12 minutes ago, hesi said:

Yes a big run and she is a quality, genuine G1 horse, but why are they not putting her over more ground, that is her forte and why they paid big money for her.  Is there a lack of suitable races.  They need to get a wriggle on and secure a G1 win for her breeding value, and except for Winx they only have a limited life at the top.

She hasn't done too badly in the three Grp 1 1600m races in OZ so far.  Only 4 years old.

[hesi]

She has done extremely well against the best Aus has to offer (unlike Damask Rose), but a G1 win is the glittering prize.  As you know, horses are unpredictable, look at Savaglee, a champion in waiting at 3, never came back at 4

[Chief Stipe]

16 minutes ago, hesi said:

As you know, horses are unpredictable, look at Savaglee, a champion in waiting at 3, never came back at 4

Injured as opposed to not wanting to race.  He like many top three year olds of that year had a torrid programme that year caused by abandoned racemeetings after they had travelled and then poor track conditions.