Chief Stipe Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Newmarket said: I think your wrong. So, we all agree 15 % taken from pool, if not when bet placed, when bets paid out, either way 15% deducted from total pool. Now that is on every pool, so for someone gambling each race, if you are even at the end of the day, yet turned over many thousands, somewhere along the way you have collected off many markets? So takeout rates would be better for tab? Takeout rates don't change on the tote they are fixed. Revenue earned from fixed odds can vary and can be negative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Given what is on here, I'm going to have to contact the TAB to get all my tax invoices for all the deductions on my bets that have resulted in GST being paid to the government. Just now, Newmarket said: I think your wrong. So, we all agree 15 % taken from pool, if not when bet placed, when bets paid out, either way 15% deducted from total pool. Now that is on every pool, so for someone gambling each race, if you are even at the end of the day, yet turned over many thousands, somewhere along the way you have collected off many markets? So takeout rates would be better for tab? That may be the case - if looking at just that day in isolation. But if you think that you could bet $5k every day, returning you $5k, and that the TAB would therefore be making $750 every day because of your betting than otherwise, then please tell us where the money is coming from. Because that means that 365 * $750 would have been lost from the other punters across the year betting into those pools - close to $300k. Where is that coming from? They got bottomless pockets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Newmarket said: So takeout rates would be better for tab? Not unless other punters matched your increase which is what Mardi is trying to say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newmarket Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Over and out for me, i told myself i was going to avoid these type of discussions. Anyway, thanks for everyones thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, barryb said: Not unless other punters matched your increase which is what Mardi is trying to say. The money the TAB gets, has to ultimately come from somewhere. If punters bet 500k on the day at Wingatui. They lose say $75k net across the day. If Newmarket decides that day to bet, and bets $10k on the races on the day. The TAB will take say $76.5k out. That will be the net losses from the punters. $1.5k more. That money has to come from somewhere. If Newmarket doesn't lose, the other punters need to be prepared to lose more. $1.5k more. They may do it that day, but they won't just keep doing that. Most people don't have a bottomless supply of money to lose. People are betting against other punters. One punter winning overall affects the other punters rate of return in a pool scenario. Edited March 3, 2019 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Newmarket said: Over and out for me, i told myself i was going to avoid these type of discussions. Anyway, thanks for everyones thoughts. That's fine Newmarket however I do have sympathy for you as I used to think like you until it dawned on me that the only revenue the TAB makes is from people's losses NOT turnover. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newmarket Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 53 minutes ago, mardigras said: The money the TAB gets, has to ultimately come from somewhere. If punters bet 500k on the day at Wingatui. They lose say $75k net across the day. If Newmarket decides that day to bet, and bets $10k on the races on the day. The TAB will take say $76.5k out. That will be the net losses from the punters. $1.5k more. That money has to come from somewhere. If Newmarket doesn't lose, the other punters need to be prepared to lose more. $1.5k more. They may do it that day, but they won't just keep doing that. Most people don't have a bottomless supply of money to lose. People are betting against other punters. One punter winning overall affects the other punters rate of return in a pool scenario. Great, at last you agree to my first example. Thank you, we got there in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crucible Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Wrong. The extra $3,000 turned over was Newmarkets only for a short time. He ended up contributing zero to TAB revenue. I am in fact not wrong, but I love your confidence. I agree with your assertion that the amount the TAB makes on the tote is the net losses of all of the punters combined, and I appreciate that the logic is hard to understand, but the thing you are missing is that the combined losses of all punters is not a fixed amount – it is fluid. It’s not like a bunch of punters start the day and collectively say, “we are going to lose $500k today”. The only thing that is fixed is the fact that the TAB takes a percentage of all turnover. Here’s an illustration: Scenario 1: NM bets $2k into a tote pool on a single race. The pool including NM’s bet is $20k. NM collects $2k and places no further bets. NM’s turnover for the day is $2k and he breaks even. Scenario 2: NM bets $2k into a tote pool on a single race. The pool including NM’s bet is $20k. NM collects $2k. NM then bets $1k on the next race and loses the entire $1k. The pool before NM’s bet was $20k and with NM’s bet it is $21k. NM then bets another $1k on a subsequent race and collects $2k. The pool before NM’s bet was $20k and with NM’s bet it is $21k. NM’s turnover for the day is now $4k and he breaks even. Who makes and loses what under these two scenarios (assuming a 15% TAB take-out from the tote pool) Scenario 1: First race – TAB takes $3k (15% of $20k pool), NM breaks even, and other punters lose $3k – they bet $18k and collected $15k. Second race: TAB takes $3k (15% of $20k) and other punters lose $3k (NM didn't bet in this scenario) Third race: TAB takes $3k and other punters lose $3k (NM didn't bet in this scenario) Three races combined: TAB makes $9k (15% of $60k), NM breaks even and other punters lose $9k. Scenario 2: First race – TAB takes $3k (15% of $20k pool), NM breaks even, and other punters lose $3k – they bet $18k and collected $15k. Second race: TAB takes $3,150 (15% of $21k pool), NM loses $1k and other punters lose $2,150 – they bet $20k and collected $17,850. Third race: TAB takes $3,150, NM makes $1k, and other punters loses $4,150 – they bet $20k and collected $15,850. Three races combined: TAB makes $9,300 (15% of $62k), NM breaks even, and other punters lose $9,300. So the only difference in the two scenarios was that NM kept betting and as a result of this the TAB end up making a further $300, which unsurprisingly is 15% of NM’s additional turnover. By managing to beat the TAB’s 15% take he has effectively increased the combined losses of the other punters by $300 and effectively contributed another $300 to the TAB gross profit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Newmarket said: Great, at last you agree to my first example. Thank you, we got there in the end. That's funny since I didn't disagree that for your bets, the TAB would be entitled to more money. What I disagreed with is that you doing that over the course of a year, will not make the TAB more money. And the other part is that I stated YOU don't pay the takeout. Are you still seem to think you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, The Crucible said: I am in fact not wrong, but I love your confidence. I agree with your assertion that the amount the TAB makes on the tote is the net losses of all of the punters combined, and I appreciate that the logic is hard to understand, but the thing you are missing is that the combined losses of all punters is not a fixed amount – it is fluid. It’s not like a bunch of punters start the day and collectively say, “we are going to lose $500k today”. The only thing that is fixed is the fact that the TAB takes a percentage of all turnover. Here’s an illustration: Scenario 1: NM bets $2k into a tote pool on a single race. The pool including NM’s bet is $20k. NM collects $2k and places no further bets. NM’s turnover for the day is $2k and he breaks even. Scenario 2: NM bets $2k into a tote pool on a single race. The pool including NM’s bet is $20k. NM collects $2k. NM then bets $1k on the next race and loses the entire $1k. The pool before NM’s bet was $20k and with NM’s bet it is $21k. NM then bets another $1k on a subsequent race and collects $2k. The pool before NM’s bet was $20k and with NM’s bet it is $21k. NM’s turnover for the day is now $4k and he breaks even. Who makes and loses what under these two scenarios (assuming a 15% TAB take-out from the tote pool) Scenario 1: First race – TAB takes $3k (15% of $20k pool), NM breaks even, and other punters lose $3k – they bet $18k and collected $15k. Second race: TAB takes $3k (15% of $20k) and other punters lose $3k (NM didn't bet in this scenario) Third race: TAB takes $3k and other punters lose $3k (NM didn't bet in this scenario) Three races combined: TAB makes $9k (15% of $60k), NM breaks even and other punters lose $9k. Scenario 2: First race – TAB takes $3k (15% of $20k pool), NM breaks even, and other punters lose $3k – they bet $18k and collected $15k. Second race: TAB takes $3,150 (15% of $21k pool), NM loses $1k and other punters lose $2,150 – they bet $20k and collected $17,850. Third race: TAB takes $3,150, NM makes $1k, and other punters loses $4,150 – they bet $20k and collected $15,850. Three races combined: TAB makes $9,300 (15% of $62k), NM breaks even, and other punters lose $9,300. So the only difference in the two scenarios was that NM kept betting and as a result of this the TAB end up making a further $300, which unsurprisingly is 15% of NM’s additional turnover. By managing to beat the TAB’s 15% take he has effectively increased the combined losses of the other punters by $300 and effectively contributed another $300 to the TAB gross profit. Yep, for that small inconsequential period. I thought the TAB was a going concern. And over a year, if you keep taking more from other punters, you seem to think they'll just continue fronting up with the money. That's naive. The annual report will tell you it doesn't happen. Next you'll be telling me that if I bet $10 million on the tote this year, the TAB gross profit is going to go up by $1.5 million, even if I turned that $10 million into $10.5 million. Now that is funny. By the way, when I said you were wrong, that was in regard to saying that taking 15% of a pool is the same as saying that you have contributed 15% to the TAB revenue from your bet. It isn't a confidence thing. It's a fact. That is not correct. If you can't understand the difference, there is little point having further discussion on it. If you are right, please show me where it states the TAB is deducting the takeout from my bet. Edited March 3, 2019 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 1/03/2019 at 5:26 PM, Weasel said: PLATINUM INVADOR looks a genuine stayer but is having to back up quickly AGAIN over a punishing trip (for a 3yo) having had to race last week (and win) to make the cut. Wouldnt be surprised it it runs last. Point is, Thomass ...you don't have a frikkin clue what to back until after the race, and then you're miraculously a fountain of knowledge. Wow wowzer Wesley!! This thread has taken off on a tangent all of its own! Lurve it! Ive been in an ashram all weekend...sending the P to paradise and peeyond... Please tell moi... Did PI finish close to last as you predicted? Was there any gear changes that made a difference in the race...as per VALUE..in the Derrrby....such as BLINKERS on? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kakama Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Great that TC knowz his stuff....seems pretty basic, funny that mardigras backtraking real quick....I suppose that his him saying he was wrong....nm just stated one example of one days punting....now mardie is digging holes.....brilliant 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weasel Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Thomass said: Wow wowzer Wesley!! This thread has taken off on a tangent all of its own! Lurve it! Ive been in an ashram all weekend...sending the P to paradise and peeyond... Please tell moi... Did PI finish close to last as you predicted? Was there any gear changes that made a difference in the race...as per VALUE..in the Derrrby....such as BLINKERS on? Cheers LOLOL Tommy tomTom ...i notice you mention only Platinum Invador from our pre-race discussion...are you claiming it now as a selection of yours? You don't mention More Wonder or any of the other horses! I thought PI's run was unbelievably good, three races in three weeks ...let's hope its legs haven't been ruined! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Kakama said: Great that TC knowz his stuff....seems pretty basic, funny that mardigras backtraking real quick....I suppose that his him saying he was wrong....nm just stated one example of one days punting....now mardie is digging holes.....brilliant Maybe he knows his stuff. But he is still wrong if he thinks a bet has takeout deducted from it. I've done no backtracking. I don't have to, I just produce the racing rules. And the rest just make stuff up. There's nothing difficult about this. Which highlights how sites like this bring people in (like you now) that think things because they've never bothered to read the rules. But if you can show me the backtracking, please do. Edited March 3, 2019 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Weasel said: LOLOL Tommy tomTom ...i notice you mention only Platinum Invador from our pre-race discussion...are you claiming it now as a selection of yours? You don't mention More Wonder or any of the other horses! I thought PI's run was unbelievably good, three races in three weeks ...let's hope its legs haven't been ruined! Oh so it nearly won did it?? Not "near last"?? Unfortunately for you...moi hadn't done the entire BP form for that race when you asked... Of course, as stated many times on here before.. A neddy having Blinkers on first time...or re applied...are in the BP...If at VALUE The BP found value on CP at 45's....after being a G3 winner with BO 1st time...unlucky last start when shuffled back from the horror rail draw....ran on well while gawking around... This time focused az... Sweet P..."he lacks concentration...so we thought they would help again" Yep, enabled him to race handy..settled with cover...then outsprinted them up the straight with the purrfect run...concentrating all of the way btw...the other BP of the 'fittest horse' niche For some reason Backing up is frowned upon by so called Punters here Believe me when I say...ITS A MASSIVE POSITIVE for those who can take it... When asked about her filly backing up within a short time over Xmas Pam Gerrard " she was unlucky there...no problems about that...she could race every day she's that tough" yep..the FITTEST in that race...and the TOUGHEST Just get on Wesley...or get off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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