curious Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Fred said: Have I got this right? you exclude all that are not carrying their handicapped weight then conclude that the remainder are carrying their handicapped weight. How could it be otherwise? It couldn't be otherwise if I'm understanding your question Fred. Some horses carry overweight and some have apprentice allowances so don't carry their carded weight. The remainder carry there carded weight. Hope that makes sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 On 2/07/2019 at 8:14 PM, Chief Stipe said: There you go get on the high weights. Who would have known NOT Thomaas! Can't you read Magoo? I said in moi's previous post I take "no account of weight" on the face value of the said race.. ...if however moi's form analysis on superior form..back to inferior class is without Winter App allowances being taken into account..Set Weights back to Handicap... Im all over it like your rashes... Its like Bazz and Muddy not allowing for neddys being UNLUCKY, WIDE WITHOUT COVER...et el... BUT...Muddy even acknowledges more/ less weight = time gained/lost it must be true then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 On 3/07/2019 at 7:50 AM, mardigras said: I don't throw toys. I move on. Once idiots like you are involved, there is no point. You're a site fucker. Remember racechat. You did the same there. Just look at this site now. You've fucked another one. Well done. Great to have you back Muddy... Just remind us agin wrt WEIGHT you factor in 0.1L per 1 kg...right? What about bog H11 tracks over...let's say 2200M...any adjustment compared to..let's say a G2?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 On 07/03/2019 at 1:16 PM, curious said: It couldn't be otherwise if I'm understanding your question Fred. Some horses carry overweight and some have apprentice allowances so don't carry their carded weight. The remainder carry there carded weight. Hope that makes sense? I am curious Curious, why have you excluded all horses that have claimed apprentice allowances reducing the carded weight? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 Maybe we should leave it to the experts on the field here... Lance O'Sullivan... ..whenever he was on a neddy with a big weight...he'd try to race a whole lot handier ..as he found the reaction time to accelerate was slower as the weight increased... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 3 hours ago, All The Aces said: I am curious Curious, why have you excluded all horses that have claimed apprentice allowances reducing the carded weight? Because I'm trying to assess the performance of horses at their handicapped weight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 1 minute ago, curious said: Because I'm trying to assess the performance of horses at their handicapped weight. I take it from that then, that any weight allowance therefore would have to be a factor in your assessment which is why you left this out. That surely indicates to me that weight carried must be a genuine consideration when assessing those races as it appears to be influential whereby you ignore it and don't include it your stats. Surely this then will distort those stats you provided. Are you able to advise how many horses that have won with an allowance that you have excluded from those stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 1 hour ago, All The Aces said: I take it from that then, that any weight allowance therefore would have to be a factor in your assessment which is why you left this out. That surely indicates to me that weight carried must be a genuine consideration when assessing those races as it appears to be influential whereby you ignore it and don't include it your stats. Surely this then will distort those stats you provided. Are you able to advise how many horses that have won with an allowance that you have excluded from those stats. The allowances distort the stats when onr is comparing the weight that the handicapper gave originally. Yesterday at Whanganui high weight horses without allowances won all the races on a bog H11 except the last. With the last race the winner, the hot favourite, was so good it could have carried its carded weight and more and still bolted in. I would say the apprentice allowance on a heavy track tipsters got a thrashing yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 20 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: The allowances distort the stats when onr is comparing the weight that the handicapper gave originally. Yesterday at Whanganui high weight horses without allowances won all the races on a bog H11 except the last. With the last race the winner, the hot favourite, was so good it could have carried its carded weight and more and still bolted in. I would say the apprentice allowance on a heavy track tipsters got a thrashing yesterday. Where on Earth do you get your crap info from...Trumps FAKE NEWS?? Downs claimed 3 kgs...taking the slowest part of the BOG...and clearly won due to the allowance... FANNIN claimed as well... As you were...as you were?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 2 hours ago, All The Aces said: I take it from that then, that any weight allowance therefore would have to be a factor in your assessment which is why you left this out. That surely indicates to me that weight carried must be a genuine consideration when assessing those races as it appears to be influential whereby you ignore it and don't include it your stats. Surely this then will distort those stats you provided. Are you able to advise how many horses that have won with an allowance that you have excluded from those stats. No. As I tried to explain above, those data came from an analysis assessing the effectiveness of the current handicapping/rating system. The only way to do that is to examine the success rate of horses in each weight band cf. their expected success rate if in a perfect handicapping system. So, INCLUDING horses that did not carry their carded weight might distort the findings, not EXCLUDING them. And no, I do not consider weight or weight allowances in the assessment of individual chance if that's what you mean. Nor do I use the type of population statistics that I posted to inform that assessment in any way. I don't know how you could do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 Then that does not give you a true accurate picture of all races if you take out horses that are in receipt of any claim. You are omitting the very important factor of horses winning under the allotted handicap by means of a claim which is basically the purpose of putting an apprentice on. I note that you also exclude all horses on the minimum. If it makes no difference as a few are saying then they should be included to form a far more accurate assessment instead of a distorted result. Do you know how many winning horses have been excluded from your data analysis? That would be interesting to know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 2 hours ago, Thomass said: Where on Earth do you get your crap info from...Trumps FAKE NEWS?? Downs claimed 3 kgs...taking the slowest part of the BOG...and clearly won due to the allowance... FANNIN claimed as well... As you were...as you were?? No more fake than your posts. Both carried 65kg's! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: The allowances distort the stats when onr is comparing the weight that the handicapper gave originally. Well Chief, of that is not an admission of an allowance having an influence then I don't know what does. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: No more fake than your posts. Both carried 65kg's! Correct Chief, but only after the respective claims as Thomass pointed out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 2 hours ago, All The Aces said: Well Chief, of that is not an admission of an allowance having an influence then I don't know what does. ? No because curious was assessing "handicappers weight". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Just remember when you're dealing with some of these ignorami ATA... They also ignore...unlucky runs, wide without cover, track specialists... ...they treat neddys like robots when horses can be in and out of form...who knew? They practise extreme sophistry...when they're actually punces without clothes "I expect my rider to get said neddy into the best position possible" Maybe they think they're betting on Winged Horses?? But that's Phantasy..we know it...but they dont hahaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pineneedle Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 On 29/06/2019 at 5:13 PM, All The Aces said: You really do have to laugh. This guy Hesi states that he allows free speech on his site but then says in the same post that Thomass is barred. Hardly what I would call having a free speech site. ? He is a gotta have the last word kinda guy.Just watch. Typical public srvant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 You really have to laugh at this though ata.. Herman tries to organise a tipping contest...but even his mates didn't want to turn up!!! Hilarious stuff...they knew they'd be totally embarrassed by their lack of perspecuity... Theyd be ignoring bias, thinking they were on Pegasus to get them into the one one... ...the classic ones already mentioned of no unlucky runs, wide without cover, or overacing...but the new one " any horse racing at this time of the year will handle ALL tracks... courtesy of Bazz...no wonder he's gone into hiding... Id be embarrassed to bits.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 9, 2019 Author Share Posted July 9, 2019 Seriously???? ? Does he never read the stipe reports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 On 5/07/2019 at 4:23 PM, All The Aces said: Well Chief Good horse. No shame in losing to Moscow Flyer, what a champ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted July 13, 2019 Share Posted July 13, 2019 On 1/07/2019 at 8:21 AM, All The Aces said: Let's take a look at the two of the biggest handicap races in Australasia, the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. The last top weight to win the Caulfield Cup was Dunaden in 2012 and prior to that you have to go back to Comic Court in 1950. In the Melbourne Cup it was Makybe Diva in 2005 and then all the way back to Rising Fast in 1954. Only one top weight has managed to win the Caulfield Cup in the last 69 years and in the Melbourne Cup it's 65 years. You might want to recheck your data ATA. Don't know if you saw this. "Seems at odds with what the results say. In the Caulfield Cup, Redcraze won in 1956. Pretty sure he was the topweight. As was Rising Fast in 1955. Of course, Sky Heights won the 1999 Caulfield Cup ... as the topweight, and Northerly won in 2002 .... And Sydeston won as topweight in 1990. Along with Dunaden mentioned in 2012. Comic Court didn't even win the Caulfield Cup in 1950 (he won the Melbourne Cup in 1950 as topweight). I make that at least 6 in 64 years. about 1 in 11. ................................. In the Melbourne Cup, Hyperno won in 1979 as topweight as did Rain Lover in 1969. And Comic Court in 1950. Along with the mentioned Rising Fast in 1954. So that makes 5 top weights winning in the last 69 years. Given the number of topweights during that time, 5 seems pretty high to me." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted July 13, 2019 Share Posted July 13, 2019 Add to that, the 1951 and 1952 Melbourne Cups were also won by the topweight, making 7 topweights in the last 69 years. And Tobin Bronze won the Caulfield Cup in 1967. Making that 7 in 64 years. Not bad To make things worse, the last winning topweight of the Caulfield Cup wasn't Dunaden. It was Best Solution last year and before that it was Admire Rakti in 2014. That's makes it 9 in 64 years. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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